Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 - Final Profit +127.57 pts

[fintron]

Last year's thread ended up comfortably in profit and showed the following figures at the end of the season: 2009 Figures Total Pts staked: 6146.5 Final Profit/loss: +478.17 Final ROI: +7.77 % I'm gonna go again this season, although this years thread will not be a full diary and a complete list of every flat bet I placed, as was the case last year. Due to time constraints I won't be able to study as much as before, so I am ignoring all races below class 4 level. If the no. of races beyond that is still too much to get a handle on then I'll focus on the sprints - which were the money spinners last season. All selections will be proofed to Racing Index, if anyone wants to receive the tips via e-mail (not everyone can get access to PL through work firewalls) then please drop me a PM and I will add you to my mailing list. All tips go out before 11 am each morning and will also be posted on here as of today. All bets are on a 0.25 pt to 3 pt scale and are value picks. There may be long losing runs as was the case last year, but the aim is to stay ahead long-term by continually backing selections I feel are overpriced relative to what I consider to be their true odds. My target yield is double that of last season - I'm gunning for a 20 % return on investment this season, despite missing my 10 % target slightly last season. I think a bit of new found discipline will keep me on track. I plan to raised my stakes around June - July - which was my "thunderstorm" period last season. By how much will depend on how the selections perform over April-May. Stakes will probably drop off again for the final few months of the campaign, if the winners start to dry up as they did towards the back end of last season.

[fintron]

Re: Fintron's Flat Thread 2010 Bet 1: 4.35 Ffos Las Just the eight runners are currently declared for this class 4 sprint over 5 furlongs. Its a trappy race with two vying for joint favouritism - The Hermitage of Mark Johnston's and Silver Linnet, an impressive winner last time out, and I think there could be an upset. The one I feel is overpriced is the one racing from out the weights - EXCEED POWER. He is 3 lb out of the handicap but Andrea Atzeni claims a useful 3 lbs to effectively put him back in the handicap proper. Raised 6 lb from his Wolverhampton win two starts ago he is in tougher company here, but he rates better than his margin of defeat showed last time out (hit traffic trouble) and should get things run to suit today. 12/1 Betfred, 0.5 pt win/0.25 pt place (3 places, 1/5 odds).