AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

[ozgamer]

Brisbane --------- 1.37 --- -18.5 Carlton ---------- 3.12 --- +18.5 Collingwood ------ 1.06 --- -48.5 Melbourne -------- 9.30 --- +48.5 St Kilda ---------- 1.14 --- -34.5 North Melbourne -- 5.77 --- +34.5 West Coast ------ 1.54 --- -11.5 Port Adelaide ----- 2.49 --- +11.5 Adelaide --------- 1.50 --- -13.5 Sydney ---------- 2.60 --- +13.5 Essendon -------- 1.44 --- -16.5 Fremantle -------- 2.81 --- +16.5 Richmond -------- 10.15 -- +48.5 Wst Bulldogs ----- 1.05 --- -48.5 Hawthorn -------- 2.52 --- +12.5 Geelong --------- 1.52 --- -12.5 I like Sydney if not straight out then at the + line. Concerns are with both Malceski and Kennelly but I think the Crows have much bigger problems.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Edit: I think the -12.5 for Geelong is worth some thought as well. I know the Hawks play close to their best footy vs the Cats but the Bombers were given more than double that in their handicap.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Yep, Swans I do like also. Porp and Knights may be back, but even still, not sure how a team who has kicked more than 10 goals just once in 5 games this season can be favoured by 2! Another super low scorer, but I'm guessing the total will reflect that.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Lokks like you guys have touched up the 'cap already (down to +12.5). Just a very underdone side at the moment are Adelaide. Carlton I like to cover the 18.5. Bris on just 5-days but of course if Carton are in front they'll surely blow it with save it tactics. Don't laugh but I'm seriously considering bundling on the Bulldogs at 1.07. If ever a side was value at that price ... . Mind you the -48.5 is a bet IMO.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

Carlton I like to cover the 18.5. Bris on just 5-days but of course if Carton are in front they'll surely blow it with save it tactics.

From The Age: "Thornton is certain to pick up Brown, given that the club's other tall defender, Paul Bower, injured a leg - believed to be an upper leg problem - at training on Saturday and will miss the Gabba game." With Jamison on Fevola, I wonder who plays the spare man in defence now? Edit: Sydney $2.52 I won't stuff around with this anymore. Sloane (ankle) isn't a huge loss but he was fit and now there's a question mark on Scott Stevens (concussion). Knights and Burton coming back from knee injuries return to full training this week.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Essendon v Fremantle The market's ripe on that game and I've gone all in at the 2.85 Frem. Essendon go well but I really think Fremantle will have the smell of it this time. I'd make Essendon the 1.80 fave but that is all. Of course +16.5 looks big as well. Fremantle have already played at Edihad twice this season but you can forget the form in the huge loss to St Kilda.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) I've definately done a 180 on this game myself... ...Freo's forward pressure was amazing v. the Crows, so even if they do break the lines I don't think their "forwardline" can take advantage of the 1-1 opertunities that will come their way. The thing that worries me is the 2 full days rest the Bombers have. I'm actually leaning towards Hawthorn +12.5 on Monday. Milburn out, Cats still a bit underdone... ...oh, and back on the Swans, word is that Kirk is far from 100% too. MIssed a whole lot of the last quarter and is thought to have an "upper leg problem".

[Henry Jr]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

I've definately done a 180 on this game myself... ...Freo's forward pressure was amazing v. the Crows, so even if they do break the lines I don't think their "forwardline" can take advantage of the 1-1 opertunities that will come their way. The thing that worries me is the 2 full days rest the Bombers have. I'm actually leaning towards Hawthorn +12.5 on Monday. Milburn out, Cats still a bit underdone... ...oh, and back on the Swans, word is that Kirk is far from 100% too. MIssed a whole lot of the last quarter and is thought to have an "upper leg problem".

Ablett also spotted with some form of cast on his leg today to protect his calf. Franklin and Bateman return for the Hawks from suspension and Rioli a 90% chance of returning also.

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

The thing that worries me is the 2 full days rest the Bombers have.

Conditions were favourable in Perth that evening. It was cooler than normal and Freo ran the game out quite comfortably. I think they would be happy getting a 7 day turnaround vs 9 for the Bombers as opposed to say 6 vs 8. Edit: Well Bower's been named for the Blues. Aussie media does itself proud again. Steven Browne is the Carlton emergency back. Adcock has been named as well. James Hawksley is the Lion's emergency back.

[DafsT]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Brisbane vs. Carlton... any value? Great job with Essendon-Freemantle, great predicting:notworthy

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

Brisbane vs. Carlton... any value? Great job with Essendon-Freemantle' date=' great predicting:notworthy[/quote']Carlton played no one last week but still looked a very solid unit to me. Brisbane are used to the local humid conditions but we still must wonder about the five day break. I've taken Carlton +20.5 @ Sportsbet and Brisbane 1-24 @ 3.35 Sportingbet. Interestingly these two invariably have tight battles. Carlton if in front are more likely to blow it with save it tactics.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Brisbane -18.5 I mentioned last week how good defensively Brisbane have become at home...(and I really should have just taken them to win it :wall )...but I see something similar happening tonight. On the surface Carlton did well last week, but of course it was only Richmond who are clearly bottom 2, and they only had 12 shots at HT...3 less than the Tiges! Again, they only av'd 78 ppg in the pre-season... ...they did beat Brisbane by a point, but it was in Melbourne, and Brisbane were missing Power, Drummond,Black, Rich, Merrett, Luenberger and Adcock...Judd played for Carlton and they were missing just Waite and Murphy. Carlton have had a good recent run v. Brisbane, but in the last 4 games Fev av'd 4.5 goals and Judd about 30 touches... Lions will just have too many options up forward...esp. if Bower doesn't pull up. Adelaide v. Sydney under 160.5 (2.22) Gone the Ashtee early route from the TAB. :ok Not really sure what to make of the Crows...av'ing just 66 ppg in 5 games so far and just didn't look like it last week against a team hardly known for it's defense. Now facing Sydney who are allowing just 18 shots per game after 5...Still no Knights or Burton by the looks, although Porplyzia should be back... Last year's meeting (AAMI) was 85-69, Barry Hall kicked 4...Sydney had lost 3 in a row and the Crows were flying, having won 4 in a row and had 26, 26, 25 and 23 shots (Av. 102 ppg) in the process. The last 5 meetings have av'd 130 ppg...last 3 @ AAMI 120 ppg. I reckon that's probably it from me. Good luck gang. :cheers EDIT: Ahhh...oh well Ash, one of us will get it right! :lol

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) You get your wish Taz. In: Dennis Armfield Out: Paul Bower I myself don't know which way to go and will sit this one out. Brisbane have a habit of being slow starters and I think the Blues midfield will trouble the Lions just like the Eagles last week. There will be 50+ I50s each (downhill skiers) so it will come down to which team can better convert fwd entries into goals.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) And a SUPERB result each way. :beer Ed, you're in my SC/DT teams, but that last missed shot was gold. :ok

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Give me an N ... give me an I ... give me an N ... give me an E ... give me a T ... hang on :unsure, forgot where I'm up to ... start again ... give me an N ... give me an I ... give me an N ... give me an E ... give me a T ... give me an E ... give me another E :loon ... give me an N ... NINETEEN :clap, NINETEEN :clap, NINETEEN :clap ... Ed gave me a ******* heart attack, as a matter of fact! :gimme

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

Ed gave me a ******* heart attack' date=' as a matter of fact! :gimme[/quote'] To quote a wise man. Never in doubt ;) Well done fellas on the win :ok ------------ Edit: Kane Cornes (DT H2H vs Dean Cox $2.05) @ $1.75 Dean Cox is far from being at peak fitness with the NickNat spending more time on the ground than him last week(63% for 52 pts vs 73% for 54 pts) against the Brisbane ruck duo who didn't do much until late in the game. His 2 pre-season games have netted 51 (vs Port) and 54 (vs Melb) so it will be some time before Cox starts to rack up bigger DT scores. Kane Cornes won't get an easy ride this week compared to last and only scored 61 in the NAB Cup the last time he played West Coast but he rarely puts in a bad game DT-wise and scored 100+ the last 2 times vs West Coast (in a big loss and a big win) last year. Even with his new role he still is able to find the ball.

[DafsT]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Thoughts on this?

Sport	AFL
Event	Adelaide - Sydney (+13.5)
Selection	2
Strength	6/10
Date	04/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Round 2 - This should be a low scoring game, as Adelaide aren't prone to scoring a lot of goals at the moment. Sydney, who have returning players, have a real chance at winning this against an inconsistant Adelaide side that is a heavier than expected favourite in this one. I think going for the away win is too big a call, so I'm taking Sydney with the handicap of 13.5. I hope Syndey with a 13.5 advantage will win. Good luck!

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Go Swannies in a snooze-fest. ;) Where'd you find that DT match-up oz? I've been trawling around this morning looking at player bets, found one I like... O'Keefe over Goodes/Vince (2.65) Bet is for most DT points. O'Keefe is flying early, had a couple of very big pre-season games and continued last week with 123 v. Saints. Goodes had 86, and is playing more of a stay home forward than in the past which will hurt his scoring, esp. this week v. a pretty solid defense, where-as O'Keefe will be happy to roam around chasing kicks. Vince is still struggling for fitness after an injury interupted pre-season, scored just 69 last week. O'Keefe has scored 91, 138, 100 & 94 last 4 meetings (3 @ AAMI), and although the other 2 have had a couple of big games in the past, [logical] current form suggests another 90+ will be enough. Also reckon I'll bite on the Doggies -44.5. Got a massive spray last week after the game by all accounts...Morris back, and also a whisper that a few others were affected by a bug last week. If Carlton can beat them by 10 goals, Dogs should realistically be pushing up towards the 100 mark. :\

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

Go Swannies in a snooze-fest. ;) Where'd you find that DT match-up oz? I've been trawling around this morning looking at player bets, found one I like... O'Keefe over Goodes/Vince (2.65)

Taz, that would be Centrebet and no surprise that K Cornes is into $1.60. Most agencies don't have a DT market yet for tomorrow ..... except maybe Sportingbet ;) Good luck with that bet :ok

Also reckon I'll bite on the Doggies -44.5. Got a massive spray last week after the game by all accounts...Morris back, and also a whisper that a few others were affected by a bug last week. If Carlton can beat them by 10 goals, Dogs should realistically be pushing up towards the 100 mark. :\

Also there hasn't been as much media pressure on the Tigers like there has been on the Dees. With both games (Coll vs Melb & WB vs Tigers) being at the same odds, the Doggies have more motive to to beat the - line and is more likely.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) I reckon they may have even taken it down...or they may have been changing the odds when I looked, cause yeah, I didn't see it. Hey, and while I'm at it...I might fire a protest into Centrebet re: last week's Brisbane/WC total. The AFL have admitted to time keeping errors in which 3 of the quarters went longer than they should have and BOTH teams scored 1.1 in that extra time... ...just ******* marvellous when they total goes over by 8 points! :wall :wall

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Eagles v. Port over 182.5 (1.90) Eagles play some pretty good defense at home...against everyone besides Port! The last 5 meetings @ WC have all been 196 or more, av. 220, inc. a 200 point game last year. Le Cras and Lynch missing for the Eagles, no Motlop or Gray for Port (who weren't there last week anyway), and I think this total has over-reacted in a big way. Port have played VERY open games so far this year 51, 55, 50 & 64 shots in 4 (shorter of course) pre-season games...53 last week in the rain... ...scored 158-80 v. the Eagles in one of those pre-season games with no Tredrea, Gray or Motlop. Eagles topped 105 in their 3 other pre-season games and ran into a very good defense @ Brisbane last week. 183 looks well within reach. Dogs -44.5 (1.90) Top 4 team v. a bootom 4 team. Won both meetings last year by 47 and 68 and are better with Hall, and if it's at all possible, Richmond are worse.

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) That reminds me, there's a bookmaker that still has my money from the time St Kilda beat Freo (at odds >3.00, I think) after the siren. Very diplomatic of you calling Richmond a bottom-4 team, Taza! ;) (as in they're good enough to finish 13th :eyes :lol).

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Mark McVeigh (Most Disposals H2H vs A McPhee $2.12) @ $1.70 McVeigh had a gr8 game in the VFL last week and will be determined to have a good one back in the seniors. McPhee was reported as "training strongly in Melbourne on Saturday morning" so he is very likely to line up tomorrow. He was the worst possession getter last week (6) which reflected his poor pre-season. McVeigh could have a quiet game e.g. 10 disposals and still beat McPhee I feel.

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Yeah, that looks like a super bet oz. :ok How was that for a game!!??!! :eek Best game I've seen for a long time...Poor old Melbourne, just too many fumbles and bumbles at wrong times. Played pretty well... ...and yes Ash, esp. given today's performance, the Tiges are a certain bottom one team! :lol

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Sydney 2.50 & +13.5 @ TAB Van Berlo a late out for Adelaide. One suspects there's the possibility of a further late change from either side but this is a game priced far too heavily on past records IMO.

[DafsT]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Was tempted by Melborune +48.5... I didn't go for it :wall

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

How was that for a game!!??!! :eek Best game I've seen for a long time...Poor old Melbourne, just too many fumbles and bumbles at wrong times. Played pretty well...

I heard it on the radio. One that got away for the Dees. Speaking of which, one that got away from the Eagles as well. How do you lose a match when the I50's are 60-37 in your favour? When your team is the West Coast Eagles. My local butcher would've been proud of that effort last nite. Sorry your bet was a victim of that Taz. Dogs -44.5 (1.90) I'm on this as well for the reasons explained earlier. One more: Barry Hall Top Goal Scorer (WB vs Tigers) @ $3.00 Rievoldt opened up at the same odds and firmed into $2.50 w/o Kozi plus no Petrie and vs a mediocre Nth defence (Hansen his opponent). He kicked a big bag and won easily. With Hall being the main focus in the Doggies fwd line, he should just carve them today as per his pre-season form. edit: Crows vs Swans

[TazaD]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5) Wow. Didn't realise watching it that the numbers were that skewed. It was pretty clear they did miss a capable forward, didn't think they would have been that messy without LeCras and Lynch, so probably a bad bet from that point of view... ...but yeah, what the hell were Port doing in the 3rd?? :wall Crazy. :\ Good luck with Barry kicking a bag. :ok

[ozgamer]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

Wow. Didn't realise watching it that the numbers were that skewed. It was pretty clear they did miss a capable forward, didn't think they would have been that messy without LeCras and Lynch, so probably a bad bet from that point of view...

I think it's a worrying sign when you drop your FF after a Round 1 game and make him a scapegoat for an I50 problem that has existed for 2 weeks now. Talk all summer was about using Nicoski up forward which they've been doing until he got injured and for Beau Waters to spend some time forward as well which he hasn't. Seeing Mitch Brown up forward last nite is the first I've heard/seen of this Kennedy/M Brown fwd line plan when all summer it was about Lynch @ FF and Kennedy @ CHF.

[DafsT]

Re: AFL Round 2 (April 1-5)

Thoughts on this?

Sport	AFL
Event	Adelaide - Sydney (+13.5)
Selection	2
Strength	6/10
Date	04/04/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Betfair @ 1.85 (Back)
Reasoning	Round 2 - This should be a low scoring game, as Adelaide aren't prone to scoring a lot of goals at the moment. Sydney, who have returning players, have a real chance at winning this against an inconsistant Adelaide side that is a heavier than expected favourite in this one. I think going for the away win is too big a call, so I'm taking Sydney with the handicap of 13.5. I hope Syndey with a 13.5 advantage will win. Good luck!

Success:nana but maybe should've been braver :lol