Feedback on a pub conversation

[blank_frackis]

We were having a conversation at the pub earlier, as you do, and we had a bit of a debate going about the following system and whether in the long run the odds would be in your favour to win. The idea is for football and you start off by picking two games which have evenly matched odds. For instance (right now on Ladbrokes): 1. Hull vs Fulham (home 2.40 / draw 3.25 / away 2.50) 2. Burnley vs Blackburn (home 2.50 / draw 3.20 / away 2.50) There are 9 possible combinations of results in these two fixtures: H / H H / D H / A D / H D / D D / A A / H A / D A / A (H = home, D = draw, A = away) The combination with the lowest odds is Hull plus either Burnley or Blackburn. The odds you get for a double on these two results is 6.00. Therefore, if you put on 6 of the above 9 combinations you get your money back or win 2/3rds of the time. How you pick the three combinations you don't back is open to other ideas. We decided that a draw was statistically the least likely result in a given match, so we opted out of the double draw (D / D) and that Fulham and Burnley were the least likely to win, so took out (A / D) and (D / H). We had the feeling there was some gross flaw in this system that we were all missing though.

[GaF]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation You stake 6 units. 67% of the bets win back your stake or make a small profit. 33% of the time you lose your entire stake of 6 units. The 33% of the bets that lose would (without some edge on the odds) cost you more money than you would win from the 67% of the bets that win.

[relf]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation One way that this MIGHT work out, is with the help of additional criteria such as prior knowledge to eliminate those '3' outcomes rather than randomly pick them.

[blank_frackis]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation

One way that this MIGHT work out' date=' is with the help of additional criteria such as prior knowledge to eliminate those '3' outcomes rather than randomly pick them.[/quote'] Yeah, that's what we were trying to think about. I mean obviously if it's entirely random then (as said above) you don't have the odds in your favour, but no gambling has the odds in your favour for entirely random outcomes. I mean say, for instance, that you're extremely confident one team is not going to win a match - say they only need a point to avoid being relegated. That would eliminate three of the 9 combinations. It's a system. Whether it's particularly good or not is another matter!

[twinny]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation just a thought,give this a go,but dont pick games that have same time kick off,ie use say a 3pm saturday prem game and maybe italy sunday 2pm game,use only betfair,your home 2.4 would then become maybe a 2.65 and your away 2.5 would then become maybe a 2.8 not sure exactly the odds,this would greatly improve the odds...you still have to eliminate the right 3 combernations,good luck:ok

[GaF]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation

I mean say' date=' for instance, that you're extremely confident one team is not going to win a match - say they only need a point to avoid being relegated. That would eliminate three of the 9 combinations.[/quote'] Would backing the single on the selection you're extremely confident in not prove equally profitable? (in terms of %ROI)

[blank_frackis]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation Well, the result of this was that I basically got my stake back as Hull and Blackburn both won. I think perhaps this is a system which makes losing fairly unlikely, but also doesn't result in very high returns.

[blank_frackis]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation

Would backing the single on the selection you're extremely confident in not prove equally profitable? (in terms of %ROI)

Possibly, I attempted to work that out and it simply resulted in confusing myself!