Feedback on a pub conversation

[blank_frackis]

We were having a conversation at the pub earlier, as you do, and we had a bit of a debate going about the following system and whether in the long run the odds would be in your favour to win. The idea is for football and you start off by picking two games which have evenly matched odds. For instance (right now on Ladbrokes): 1. Hull vs Fulham (home 2.40 / draw 3.25 / away 2.50) 2. Burnley vs Blackburn (home 2.50 / draw 3.20 / away 2.50) There are 9 possible combinations of results in these two fixtures: H / H H / D H / A D / H D / D D / A A / H A / D A / A (H = home, D = draw, A = away) The combination with the lowest odds is Hull plus either Burnley or Blackburn. The odds you get for a double on these two results is 6.00. Therefore, if you put on 6 of the above 9 combinations you get your money back or win 2/3rds of the time. How you pick the three combinations you don't back is open to other ideas. We decided that a draw was statistically the least likely result in a given match, so we opted out of the double draw (D / D) and that Fulham and Burnley were the least likely to win, so took out (A / D) and (D / H). We had the feeling there was some gross flaw in this system that we were all missing though.

[GaF]

Re: Feedback on a pub conversation You stake 6 units. 67% of the bets win back your stake or make a small profit. 33% of the time you lose your entire stake of 6 units. The 33% of the bets that lose would (without some edge on the odds) cost you more money than you would win from the 67% of the bets that win.