Ogi at Cheltenham - daily selection thread

[ogii55]

Here is some sort of try for Cheltenham fest. Will try to catch some big odds playing all the races with 1 pt W bet, 1 pt place bet (where avaliable) or 0.5 e/w. There will be some sort of short reasoning for each race. Will try to point out attention also to some of the bookies promotions during fest.

Tuesday Supreme Novice Oscar Whiskey Paddy 9.00 1 pt W (Dunguib's insuranse)

I was on Peddler’s cross, but here the real value is to play at Paddy’s for Oscar Whiskey. Think the animal is better then Get me out of here. A no bet race generally for me, but with this on Oscar with back up of money if Dunguib wins is ok Bad jumping - finished forth

Arcle Osana 1 pt. W/Sporting bet (falling insurance as a special for Cheltenham on Sportingbet, if the horse falls I will have 1 pt W as a free bet for next day:). Seems to forget the odds here yeasterday - where 17.00 (now 19 at SB)

– One of the most experienced horses in Cheltenham from the field, well beaten by his old rival Sizing Europe and falling Captain Cee Bee. The leading horses as Osana needs the perfect conditions and clear jumping to succeed in Cheltenham. If it’s ok, there may be very nice winning odds here. Capable of scoring big shot here

Made everything good, but lack the class of Sizing Europe - Finished third Will Hill Trophey Ollie Magern Bet365, place 4 places/ 19.00 1 pt.

So much strong horses in very nice form we have here. The battle will be brutal and I expect a close fight until the finish line. Bensalem jumping is big question. Now will have more problems with such a big field and low vision and place of moving. The tother one also do not seems a real contender, despite his very good runs in Cheltenham. Poor run last time, lost from The package and now the weight difference is even bigger. Razor Royal is not that kind of horse that produce two good runs in a row and he will get some weights up after his last very good win. CharacterBuilding…. Sorry, but it’s not the amateur rider chase, here we have far more serious contenders and I am not sure the horse is in the form to get the win. I like very much two horses, who may entered in place contention – Ollie Magern and Knowhere. My bet is coming to Ollie, who jumped very badly last time, but was very close to take the third spot. A perfect jumping in his leading style and with such weighs (Finally to see some serious drop of rating for this horse - a career low for Chases). Last year finished 8^th on 5^th legs then the fifth horse and now will be 8 lbs lighter. Here I may propose amazing good value from bet365 just for place – it’s 19.00 (may increase to 27-30 tomorrow, if the win odds would changed to 101 as its on some of the other bookies) Knowhere also going seriously down with rating, but keep it after the second place last time. Will carry a lot more weights then his second after Eric’s Charm. Loves Cheltenham, had two good wins and few not so bad runs in Gold cup. Yeah, they are old but will carry less weight. Last year in Top 6 we have just 1 horse with over 11 – The forth Dear Villez with 11-3.

Good old Ollie, change the tactics, riding at the back, finishing on the photo for the fifht place, loosing it and went seventh. Nice run Champion hurdle Starluck 1 pt. W bet365 BOG/ 13.00 (also special promotion for the fest, if my bet wins I got another 1 pt free bet for the next race shown on Channel 4 – it’s the cross country, so If Starluck wins I will have not only my regular Heads on the ground 0.5 e/w, but also 1 pt W on the same horse) – Last year’s loss maybe came from his two early attack. Showed very nice speed as top weight on not so bad Class 4 race on sands on 8f. Timmy Murphy may get the lesson needed and if the horse is ok, he is very capable to produce a little surprise to the favorites. This race is a god gift for the bookies. Too many interesting horses, too many different bets and great possibility to play with odds and to score big winnings (from bookies point of view) The horses I do not think is capable of winning. Zanyar’s last run is total disappointment. I am not sure 26 days are enough to get back the form he need to win here. Somebody ever saw Solwhit at Cheltenham? No, seems Mr. Byrnes knows very well his horse, but after so much wins…… he must put him on the list for Champion hurdle. Unsatisfied ride by Timmy Murphy.... finished forth or fifth went from left to right

Cross country chase Heads on the ground 0.5 e/w Totesport 34.00 (Also will use their promotion, if it wins as winner or e/w I will have a free bet for the next day :) I was here for Idle talk, but he wasn’t able to get in. The best value I think is Heads on the ground. The age is not a problem on such type of race as all the big guns are 11+. Knows perfectly the cross country’s run as some of the other guys. But with 34.00 instead of 3.25 and 4.33 is amazing better value. Just needs a day and if don’t have it still a very strong place contender Leads, but noting more....

David Nicholson hurdle Argentino Luna 0.5 e/w/ 51.00 Sportingbet (falling insurance, see Osana) It’s tough to play against Voler la Vedette – the biggest banker in the entire festival for me (yeah, better then MM, Big buck and Kauto) so will try Argentino Luna. This is his most successful distance. The horse was tried on several others without success. It’s such a type of animal that may produce series of bad runs before strike with great form. GL Never get a chance, broke almost every hurdle... and the banker...... :) V Bad first day 0/6 -6.00 pts

[joshsw25]

Re: Ogi at Cheltenham - daily selection thread im not sure you are on the right horse in oscar whisky, get me out of here looks great at the moment. we will know in two hours time though...