grincher Posted March 2, 2010 Share Posted March 2, 2010 I have 32 selections and £1000 to play with in stake money. The results of all 32 selections are simultaneous. average odds 1-2. I am pretty certain that at least 27 of the selections will be correct but do not know for sure which 5 will be wrong. Each of the 32 selections has a 75% or better chance of happening. Should I look at single bets, doubles and trebles or accumalators and if so any pointers in structuring a betting strategy would be helpful? Anything obvious would be welcomed as I havent placed a bet since 1998. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed As long as you're betting with value, accumulators will give you a higher return over time. But if you're doing this as a one-off and want to go for a safer, smaller return, then I would settle for doubles or trebles, the safest of course being singles. It's just a matter of balancing risk and profit. Singles give the least profit but carry the smallest risk. 9-fold accumulators give the highest profit with the highest risk. Singles are the most forgiving if your probability estimates are wrong. Accumulators are the least forgiving. Etc. If you can achieve a 1.50 odds on 32 selections with a 75% chance of happening, go borrow some more money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grincher Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed thank you for the advice. Initially, I was thinking of singles but I would have to raise my stakes significantly higher (six or seven fold for a much lower return) and that is not really possible at present. I guess doubles and trebles offer a better return on lower stakes. I was then thinking of 7 to 12 selections in accumalators, but then of course it shifts the risk from the stakes to the bet itself. Any thoughts on if I sort my 32 selections from most to least certain (95% to 75% chance) and add one selection to each accumalator...so maybe start with a treble, then add one selection for a fourfold etc etc? As I said, I think 27 of the 32 bets will be correct but a 90% chance would turnout wrong. the other idea is to split £1000 into 100 bets of £10 each and then cover 100 different combinations of say 20 selections per bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samba_SamPa Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed 32 x $31.25 singles is 'best'. If 27 come in you make a 26.5% profit. I'm perplexed by how you think 27 will come in? :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lardonio Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed How can you say that singles are best? If you are betting with value over time, singles are not 'best'. The value increases exponentially for each value bet added to a multiple. Singles are safest, and considering how hard it is to judge value when gambling, that might well be 'best' for practical purposes. But mathematically it is definitely not best. Grincher, I'm not sure, but I think that if I were you, and assuming your numbers are correct (which honestly would be amazing!!) then I would have divided the money on 5-folds, 4-folds and trebles, maybe even 6-folds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed How can you say that singles are best? If you are betting with value over time, singles are not 'best'. The value increases exponentially for each value bet added to a multiple. True, if you keep the stake the same, your expected return increases exponentially for each value bet added to a multiple. However, it also increases your risk hugely. You can also increase your expected profit by sticking with singles and increasing your stake. This also increases your risk, of course, but usually by way less than putting the singles into an accumulator, for the same increase in expected profit, by any reasonable measure of long term "risk". Having said that, if I took the original poster's claim at face value, and I were sure about the expected strike rate, I would bet in multiples, but only because there are so many bets at such good value that I couldn't bet as much as I'd want to in singles if I had to split the £1000 between 32 bets. Though that's not a situation I ever expect to face in practice: like others I'm extremely sceptical about finding 32 bets at such extreme value at the same time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted March 4, 2010 Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed I guess it depends when these events take place, if they start together then multiples, but if staggered starts you could make more my larger staking singles maybe? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grincher Posted March 4, 2010 Author Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: advice on betting strategy needed Thanks for taking the time to give some advice. Currently thinking it all over. Maybe try goliath bets was one suggestion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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