Box3r Posted February 17, 2010 Share Posted February 17, 2010 Hello. I am new to this forum but i am watching it for a while. Is there some kind of tool that can help me to calculate fixed liability of my bank on 10 matches. Lets say i have 10 matches and if I lose everything i only lose 20% of my bank (or 30%, it doesn't matter). Odds would be around 1.70 - 2.40. I hope I explained it :) as my expression on English isn't very good. Thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 17, 2010 Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet your total liability for each bet should only be 2% of your total bank. If all 10 bets lose, you've only lost 20% of your starting bank. you could set up a simple formula to find out your stake: (2% / (1-odds)) = stake step 1: subtract 1 minus the odds step 2: divide 2 by your product from step 1 so if your starting bank was 100$ and you only wanted to risk 20% on 10 bets, you would only want to risk 2$ on each bet: Bet 1: (2$ / (1-1.70)) = 2.85$ is your stake Bet 2: (2$ / (1-2.40)) = 1.43$ is your stake In both instances, you would only lose a maximum of 2$ (2% of your starting bank of 100$) on each bet. After 10 bets, the maximum you would lose is 20% of your total bank. Ask me if this is not clear enough Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet your total liability for each bet should only be 2% of your total bank. If all 10 bets lose, you've only lost 20% of your starting bank. you could set up a simple formula to find out your stake: (2% / (1-odds)) = stake step 1: subtract 1 minus the odds step 2: divide 2 by your product from step 1 so if your starting bank was 100$ and you only wanted to risk 20% on 10 bets, you would only want to risk 2$ on each bet: Bet 1: (2$ / (1-1.70)) = 2.85$ is your stake Bet 2: (2$ / (1-2.40)) = 1.43$ is your stake In both instances, you would only lose a maximum of 2$ (2% of your starting bank of 100$) on each bet. After 10 bets, the maximum you would lose is 20% of your total bank. Ask me if this is not clear enough I will test this until tonight. I think that should work also. Thanks for your efforts writing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 17, 2010 Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet no problem. are you working on a specific system or just going on a hunch for teams you expect not to win? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet no problem. are you working on a specific system or just going on a hunch for teams you expect not to win? Actually yes. I am using statistic to found out what teams could be over 2.5 goals. I am using 2 systems. So far i am with 1st on 75% bets won. With the second 65%. In second i go on soccerway and see what are average goals of teams. Lets say Man. Utd - Chelsea. if man have average 3 goals per match and chelsea 2.8 i add those numbers and get 5.8. then i divide 5.8 with 2 and get 2.9. I am not betting on over if they dont have at least 2.7. Also it can be done with under. So i bet on under if i get 2.3 or less. 1st system is something similar but I will post it later as have some work to be done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 17, 2010 Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet sounds good. I use soccerway pretty often too. how many matches have you tested to get 75% and 65%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet sounds good. I use soccerway pretty often too. how many matches have you tested to get 75% and 65%? to get 75% 128 games, and for 65% 153 games. my first system is written here. I found about it last year from my friend and it's written on some webpage. I'm afraid it look's a bit simple, but it has been quite profitable for me. As mentioned it's an under/over strategy and it's based only on statistics. Let's imagine that there's a match between team A and team B. (A is the home team). First of all I will check what is team A's average of goals scored and conceded at home. Let's say that team A scores 2.1 and concedes 1.20 - total of 3.30 goals average in team A's home games. Then I will check what team B's average of goals scored and conceived in their away games is. Let's say that team B scores 1.75 avg. and concedes 1.15 - a total of 2.90 goals avg. in team B's away games. Then I take the two smallest numbers 1.15 + 1.20 = 2.35 - minimum goals in this match. In the same manner you find the maximum which is 3.85. The avg. of the min/max is 3.10 which is much more the line of 2.50, so I will bet over in this game. If I get an avg. of 2.70 or more I will bet over with high stakes. If it's between 2.50 and 2.70 I will decide by myself if the OVER bet is worth a try, but it will definitely be with small stakes. If I get an average between 2.30 and 2.50 I will decide if the UNDER bet is worth a try and it will definitely be with small stakes. If I get an average of 2.30 or lower I will bet under with high stakes. PS. Those systems are very same but this one rules out more non-overs so its better to use. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet I found that soccerstats can be helpful for both systems as they have great data. Anyway thanks a lot.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 19, 2010 Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet well your results have been good so far, why not start posting some picks on here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Box3r Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Need laying tool or spreedsheet well your results have been good so far' date=' why not start posting some picks on here?[/quote'] I would but i am working on some other strategies so it takes time. I think I could be able to do the same with MLB (which i can post on forum as i need to test it more than football). As I work on it i could have over 70% succes with it. But i need to work some things out. Maybe you could know where can i find web page from this thread? http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f68/mlb-stats-needed-please-help-97716/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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