Grand National 2010

[Trendsman]

A little early i know but with 43 declared at present and the weights in i will go step by step from the trends of this prestigous race and break it down to the one's that should be followed in this. The Trends 1). Over the last 25yrs of this event the ages that have won this event have shown below. 9yrs old : 8 times / 10yrs old : 6 times / 11yrs old : 7 times 2). No French bred has won the Grand National for nearly a century and Very few races in France are run beyond 3 miles and so breeders have no need to install strong stamina genes into their stock. French breds are also trained harder from a younger age, so they can be past their best when they hit eight or nine years of age and the National is not a race for early maturing types. 3). Every single winner of the National since 1970 had previously won over three miles or further over fences, so the claim that two-and-a-half milers make perfect Grand National contenders can be misleading. 4). Ten of the last ten winners had had at least ten starts over fences and between four and six runs in the same season. 5). High on the trends, and perhaps best known, statistic for finding National winners is that in the last 52 years only one horse above 11st 5lb has won this event. 6). All of the last 10 winners have been rated between 136 and 144. 7). Other stats to bear in mind are that of the last ten winners, nine were Irish bred, none had fallen more than twice over fences in their entire careers, and all had demonstrated their class to win this race by previously landing a Listed or Graded (Class A or 1) race. So using these pacific trends above i will list eliminate in category order. Trend One 9yrs old Madison Du Berlais Notre Pere Taranis Niche Market Casey Jones Dream Alliance Siegemaster Ballyholland Whinstone Boy 10yrs old Mon Mome Vic Venturi Dont Push It Cloudy Lane My Will Snowy Morning Character Building Gone To Lunch State of Play Ballyfitz Maljimar Iris De Balme Offshore Account 11yrs old Comply or Die Black Apalachi War of Attrition King Johns Castle Cane Brake Irish Raptor Above narrows the field down by 50% and will concentrate on the above runners now. Trend Two Now i will eliminate french bred runners in the field. Madison Du Berlais Notre Pere Taranis Mon Mome My Will Iris De Balme This takes out six runners with three of the top weights gone. Recap Niche Market Casey Jones Dream Alliance Siegemaster Ballyholland Whinstone Boy Vic Venturi Dont Push It Cloudy Lane Snowy Morning Gone To Lunch State of Play Ballyfitz Maljimar Offshore Account Comply or Die War of Attrition Black Apalachi King Johns Castle Cane Brake Irish Raptor Trend Three Ballyholland Maljimar King Johns Castle We lose another three in the race on the wins over 3m+ Trend Four Niche Market Cane Brake Dream Alliance Dont Push It Comply or Die Black Apalachi We now lose another six in the field with 2007 winner being dismissed this time around and irish raider Black Apalachi also drops by the wayside. Trend Five Now eliminate runners that are carrying above 11st 5lb. Vic Venturi Update Casey Jones Siegemaster Whinstone Boy Cloudy lane Snowy Morning Gone To Lunch State of Play Ballyfitz Offshore Account War of Attrition Irish Raptor Now down to eleven with two trends to go. Trend Six Now the ratings come into action with horse's that are rated below 136 and higher 144 will be eliminated. Casey Jones Siegemaster Whinstone Boy Cloudy Lane Snowy Morning Gone To Lunch State of Play War of Attrition This now leaves just three runners to concentrate on. Ballyfitz Offshore Account Irish Raptor Trend Seven The one's that are eliminated in the last trend are. Ballyfitz Irish Raptor After 43 runners and seven trends we manage to fulfill the task of coming up with one runner. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT The only thing that went against the two above was the fact that Irish Raptor had fallen on two many ocassions and Ballyfitz could be an each way contender but lost the final trend due to not winning a Graded or Listed event in his career. If trends worked every time we would be milking it but last years winner Mon Mome would of gone due to being french bred.but the selection here is based around all the trends and fits them perfect, he finished fifteenth last year after a monster gamble had taken place but was lacking many runs prior to the race, this time around has been kept more busier and would be a reasonable bet each way. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT : 1pt e/w @ 66/1 Bet365

[diamond1924]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Beat you to it, I backed Offshore Account last year at fancy odds. :( and no way am I ever taking a horse's nationality against it again, if it's good enough on all the other trends, it's good for me. I was quite happy that my antepost Backdraft is on exactly 11st. Galant Nuit??? I wonder if Mr. Parry will come back on an give us a hint?? :hope