Grand National 2010

[Trendsman]

A little early i know but with 43 declared at present and the weights in i will go step by step from the trends of this prestigous race and break it down to the one's that should be followed in this. The Trends 1). Over the last 25yrs of this event the ages that have won this event have shown below. 9yrs old : 8 times / 10yrs old : 6 times / 11yrs old : 7 times 2). No French bred has won the Grand National for nearly a century and Very few races in France are run beyond 3 miles and so breeders have no need to install strong stamina genes into their stock. French breds are also trained harder from a younger age, so they can be past their best when they hit eight or nine years of age and the National is not a race for early maturing types. 3). Every single winner of the National since 1970 had previously won over three miles or further over fences, so the claim that two-and-a-half milers make perfect Grand National contenders can be misleading. 4). Ten of the last ten winners had had at least ten starts over fences and between four and six runs in the same season. 5). High on the trends, and perhaps best known, statistic for finding National winners is that in the last 52 years only one horse above 11st 5lb has won this event. 6). All of the last 10 winners have been rated between 136 and 144. 7). Other stats to bear in mind are that of the last ten winners, nine were Irish bred, none had fallen more than twice over fences in their entire careers, and all had demonstrated their class to win this race by previously landing a Listed or Graded (Class A or 1) race. So using these pacific trends above i will list eliminate in category order. Trend One 9yrs old Madison Du Berlais Notre Pere Taranis Niche Market Casey Jones Dream Alliance Siegemaster Ballyholland Whinstone Boy 10yrs old Mon Mome Vic Venturi Dont Push It Cloudy Lane My Will Snowy Morning Character Building Gone To Lunch State of Play Ballyfitz Maljimar Iris De Balme Offshore Account 11yrs old Comply or Die Black Apalachi War of Attrition King Johns Castle Cane Brake Irish Raptor Above narrows the field down by 50% and will concentrate on the above runners now. Trend Two Now i will eliminate french bred runners in the field. Madison Du Berlais Notre Pere Taranis Mon Mome My Will Iris De Balme This takes out six runners with three of the top weights gone. Recap Niche Market Casey Jones Dream Alliance Siegemaster Ballyholland Whinstone Boy Vic Venturi Dont Push It Cloudy Lane Snowy Morning Gone To Lunch State of Play Ballyfitz Maljimar Offshore Account Comply or Die War of Attrition Black Apalachi King Johns Castle Cane Brake Irish Raptor Trend Three Ballyholland Maljimar King Johns Castle We lose another three in the race on the wins over 3m+ Trend Four Niche Market Cane Brake Dream Alliance Dont Push It Comply or Die Black Apalachi We now lose another six in the field with 2007 winner being dismissed this time around and irish raider Black Apalachi also drops by the wayside. Trend Five Now eliminate runners that are carrying above 11st 5lb. Vic Venturi Update Casey Jones Siegemaster Whinstone Boy Cloudy lane Snowy Morning Gone To Lunch State of Play Ballyfitz Offshore Account War of Attrition Irish Raptor Now down to eleven with two trends to go. Trend Six Now the ratings come into action with horse's that are rated below 136 and higher 144 will be eliminated. Casey Jones Siegemaster Whinstone Boy Cloudy Lane Snowy Morning Gone To Lunch State of Play War of Attrition This now leaves just three runners to concentrate on. Ballyfitz Offshore Account Irish Raptor Trend Seven The one's that are eliminated in the last trend are. Ballyfitz Irish Raptor After 43 runners and seven trends we manage to fulfill the task of coming up with one runner. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT The only thing that went against the two above was the fact that Irish Raptor had fallen on two many ocassions and Ballyfitz could be an each way contender but lost the final trend due to not winning a Graded or Listed event in his career. If trends worked every time we would be milking it but last years winner Mon Mome would of gone due to being french bred.but the selection here is based around all the trends and fits them perfect, he finished fifteenth last year after a monster gamble had taken place but was lacking many runs prior to the race, this time around has been kept more busier and would be a reasonable bet each way. OFFSHORE ACCOUNT : 1pt e/w @ 66/1 Bet365

[diamond1924]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Beat you to it, I backed Offshore Account last year at fancy odds. :( and no way am I ever taking a horse's nationality against it again, if it's good enough on all the other trends, it's good for me. I was quite happy that my antepost Backdraft is on exactly 11st. Galant Nuit??? I wonder if Mr. Parry will come back on an give us a hint?? :hope

[bowles10]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Trendsman Didnt FRENCH BRED Mon Mome win it last year therefore the century old stat has been broken now

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 I'm afraid offshore account is unlikely to get a run off it's current rating :( I'd forget about the French bred stat if the horse in question has shown he has stamina. That's why a lot of people missed mom mime last year. I hope offshore gets in for you but he needs a lot of horses to drop out first.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Trendsman, Surely comman sense has to come in to your "trends"? You say in (2) that few french breds stay. But once Mon Mome has won the Grand National, surely it's rediculous to throw him out because "French breds don't win"? Another french bred My Will was 3rd. Notre Pere won the Welsh National and Iris De Balme won the Scottish version. So all these have been thrown out because french breds don't stay? And King Johns Castle has been thrown out because he has not "won over 3m+". Well his best ever performance was when placed in the Grand National. Proving his stamina. Also, Don't you ever look at percentages? What percentage of those that ran in the race were 9 year olds, 10 year olds and 11 year olds? Can 7, 8, 12 and 13 year olds be expected to win if few of them run in the race? It may be that other ages have a better percentage SR than the age groups that dominate in number of runners. Surely it is best to deal with percentage of 9 year olds to win the race? Just the number of winners (imo) means nothing if you don't look in to percentages. Weights are another thing that should be expressed as percentages. There are some years where 39 or 38 runners carried below 11 stones and 1 or 2 carried above 11 stones. You can't expect high weights to win as often. If you look at what percentage of runners carrying under 11 stones win the race. And what percentage of runners carrying more than 11 stones win the race. Then the figures are very similar.

[fintron]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 The French bred stat has forced me to look at trends as a whole in a different light and understand why they are apparent. The French bred trend is apparently due to the fact in France there are fewer races over these marathon trips and are not strong stayers in general. But looking at Mon Mome's profile suggested he was just as likely to stay as several of the others and it was foolish to discard him from analysis. That said, these were the trends I was working to last season as they picked Comply or Die (as part of a shortlist but still at a good price pre-race day) the year before. Most are similar to those already posted..........

• 8-12 yo
• Rated 135+ officially
• Carrying 11 st 5 lb or under
• Won a chase over 3m+
• Run in at least 10 chases
• Won a chase worth at least £17k.
• Have contested a previous national (Eng, Scot, Ire or Wal) but have not placed in last years national at Aintree
• Have placed in current season (I was lenient here and took the season to be the last 12 months)
• Non-french bred
• Run in last 42 days (Comply or Die just scraped in with this last year)

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 You may wanna rule out King Johns Castle due to being grey as well :zzz

[Trendsman]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Guys Do we not have our own trends, do we not have our own analyses into a race. instead of barking at me could you not go through the trends yourself and put up your analyses on the race through your personal trends. just curious who you would come up with ? as we are all here to attempt to win right ?

[bowles10]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Come on guys, dont knock the use of trends, you know i use them, but i try to look beyond the main ones, typically i look at days since last run, LTO, amount of runs, wins to runs ratio all of which are sometimes avoided by the trends folk

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand Naional 2010

Come on guys' date=' dont knock the use of trends, you know i use them, but i try to look beyond the main ones, typically i look at days since last run, LTO, amount of runs, wins to runs ratio all of which are sometimes avoided by the trends folk[/quote'] Bowles, There are trends and there are trends. Trendsman's post strikes me as the lazy type. Not to his usual standard. It's crazy. As Mileni says, he'd might as well come up with greys. You may want to re-read my original post as I've added a few more gripes.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Nothing against it mate. Just having a go at the french bred trend, which was coincidence imo. You'll see a lot of french bred winners in the next years imo. Even the irish trainers are going for french horses now and they didn't before.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand Naional 2010

Nothing against it mate. Just having a go at the french bred trend' date=' which was coincidence imo. You'll see a lot of french bred winners in the next years imo. Even the irish trainers are going for french horses now and they didn't before.[/quote'] Of the 6 non-staying french breds thrown out are three National winners and a National 3rd. Doesn't form come in to this? Offshore Account is out of form. It may be your stat about no winner has fallen more than twice in their careers. But is it not very worrying Offshore Account has unseated in 2 of his last 8 starts. How many winners of the National have come down twice in 8?

[billy the punter]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Not wanting to get involved on the trend side of things as there are decent case on either side. However, re the horse in question, I have Offshore Account down as a non-stayer. Any thoughts on this?

[billy the punter]

Re: Grand Naional 2010

Not wanting to get involved on the trend side of things as there are decent case on either side. However, re the horse in question, I have Offshore Account down as a non-stayer. Any thoughts on this?

I understand the price is big so a chance can be taken, but I'm just interested on opinions etc. :ok

[diamond1924]

Re: Grand Naional 2010 Offshore account wilted last year. Once bitten...

[billy the punter]

Re: Grand Naional 2010

Offshore account wilted last year. Once bitten...

I remember his run last year. The pace slowed dramatically last year when he was left in front, resulting in plenty of non-stayers getting home, anyone who didn't get home last year must carry serious stamina doubts in a normally run race. :ok

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National 2010 Really think the weight trend could be the one to go this year. The first 4 home last year carried 11 stone or more and if Mon Mome is top weight this year then over half the field could be carrying 11 stone plus including most of the market leaders. Does anyone else think that Mouse Morris has overreacted with War of Attritions weight by pulling him out? He doesnt look that badly treated to me.

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 A previous Gold Cup winner and he is moaning about his weight which isnt even dissimilar to what he is rated in Ireland!!

[fintron]

Re: Grand Naional 2010

However, re the horse in question, I have Offshore Account down as a non-stayer. Any thoughts on this?

That is the conclusion I came to earlier in the season. Mileni and I were dicussing him in my jumps thread after I got a little worked up about the horse pre-Hennessy about his mark. He fell at the first so I was happy to give him another chance, but the tank emptied up the hill at Cheltenham shortly after and I questioned his stamina, thinking he needed dropping back in trip. He was aimed at the national last year so the trainer obviously think he stays, but the racecourse evidence hints there are stronger stayers IMO.

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National 2010 he will need a miracle to get in the race anyway. I reckon the cut off point will be 10'6. Likely runners in bold ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10; MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10; NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10; TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09; OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08; MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07; BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06; JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06; VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06. COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05; DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05; IRISH INVADER (IRE) 9-11-05; MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04; NICHE MARKET; TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04; CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03; CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03; DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03; NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03; POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03; SIEGEMASTER (IRE) 9-11-03; MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02; PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02; ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 9-11-01; WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01; BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00; BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00; BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00; PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00; ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00. BERONI (IRE) 8-10-13; CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13; LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13; SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE); SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12; BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12; DARKNESS 11-10-12; DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12; LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12; CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11; CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11; DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11; GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11; KORNATI KID 8-10-11; STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11; ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10; FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 ; JAYO (FR) 7-10-10; ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10; BALLYFITZ 10-10-09; CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09; EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09; ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09; KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09; OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09; ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08; CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08; KILCREA CASTLE (IRE) 8-10-08; LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08; MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08; NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08; BIBLE LORD (IRE) 9-10-07; IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07; MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07; PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07; PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07; RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07; THE PACKAGE 7-10-07. HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06; IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06; PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06; TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06; ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05; CERIUM (FR) 9-10-05; FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05; PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05; ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05; SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05; COE (IRE) 8-10-04; GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 11-10-04; KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04; OODACHEE 11-10-04; WHINSTONE BOY(IRE) 9-10-04; FAASEL (IRE) 9-10-03; MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 9-10-03; OFFICIER DE RESERVE (FR) 8-10-03; SIZING AUSTRALIA (IRE) 8-10-03; TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03; CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-02; DUERS (IRE) 8-10-02; BALLYTRIM (IRE) 9-10-01; OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 10-10-01; P AK JACK (FR) 10-10-01; BOYCHUK (IRE) 9-10-00; KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 10-10-00; TREACLE (IRE) 9-10-00. GALANT NUIT (FR) 6-9-13; ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST (IRE) 10-9-12; BELON GALE (IRE) 7-9-12; POMME TIEPY (FR) 7-9-12; MERIGO (FR) 9-9-10; CHIARO (FR) 8-9-09; KILBEGGAN BLADE 11-9-09; ACCORDING TO JOHN (IRE) 10-9-08; LORUM LEADER (IRE) 9-9-07; OLD BENNY 9-9-07. OVER THE CREEK 11-9-04; COSSACK DANCER (IRE) 12-9-01; WEE ROBBIE; OFFALY (IRE) 9-8-12.

[Gingertipster]

Notre Pere is very much ground dependent, how likely is soft / heavy? Madison looks the only one likely to take part of the top weights (not that I'd go that route if I owned him). Otherwise Mon Mome is likely top weight. Get on Winner to carry 11 st or more @ 11/8 (B SQ). What is Lennon doing in the field? Suited by a bare 2 miles!

[fintron]

Re: Grand National 2010 Made In Taipan is another questionable stayer, dunno why he has been entered. I've had another couple of bets today, Big Fella Thanks and Snowing Morning. Big Fella was a credible 6th last year and the handicapper seems to have been lenient on him after he failed to complete last time. Up to then though he had progressed steadily, and a year on, wiser and stronger, he may improve on last years placing. Snowy Morning was 9th last year and has been dropped quite a way in the handicap. Has shown bits of ability this year over inadequate trips and could run a solid race.

[billy the punter]

Re: Grand National 2010

he will need a miracle to get in the race anyway. I reckon the cut off point will be 10'6. Likely runners in bold ALBERTAS RUN (IRE) 9-11-10; MADISON DU BERLAIS (FR) 9-11-10; NOTRE PERE (FR) 9-11-10; TARANIS (FR) 9-11-09; OUR VIC (IRE) 12-11-08; MON MOME (FR) 10-11-07; BLACK APALACHI (IRE) 11-11-06; JOE LIVELY (IRE) 11-11-06; VIC VENTURI (IRE) 10-11-06. COMPLY OR DIE (IRE) 11-11-05; DON’T PUSH IT (IRE) 10-11-05; IRISH INVADER (IRE) 9-11-05; MADE IN TAIPAN (IRE) 8-11-04; NICHE MARKET; TRICKY TRICKSTER (IRE) 7-11-04; CASEY JONES (IRE) 9-11-03; CLOUDY LANE 10-11-03; DREAM ALLIANCE 9-11-03; NOZIC (FR) 9-11-03; POSSOL (FR) 7-11-03; SIEGEMASTER (IRE) 9-11-03; MY WILL (FR) 10-11-02; PABLO DU CHARMIL (FR) 9-11-02; ONE COOL COOKIE (IRE) 9-11-01; WAR OF ATTRITION (IRE) 11-11-01; BACKSTAGE (FR) 8-11-00; BALLYHOLLAND (IRE) 9-11-00; BEAT THE BOYS (IRE) 9-11-00; PREISTS LEAP (IRE) 10-11-00; ROULEZ COOL 7-11-00. BERONI (IRE) 8-10-13; CAN’T BUY TIME (IRE) 8-10-13; LE BEAU BAI (FR) 7-10-13; SEVEN IS MY NUMBER (IRE); SNOWY MORNING (IRE) 10-10-13; AIR FORCE ONE (GER) 8-10-12; BIG FELLA THANKS 8-10-12; DARKNESS 11-10-12; DEUTSCHLAND (USA) 7-10-12; LOUPING D’AINAY (FR) 11-10-12; CHARACTER BUILDING (IRE) 10-10-11; CHELSEA HARBOUR (IRE) 10-10-11; DOONEYS GATE (IRE) 9-10-11; GONE TO LUNCH (IRE) 10-10-11; KORNATI KID 8-10-11; STATE OF PLAY 10-10-11; ELLERSLIE GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-10; FOLLOW THE PLAN (IRE) 7-10-10 ; JAYO (FR) 7-10-10; ROYAL COUNTY STAR (IRE) 11-10-10; BALLYFITZ 10-10-09; CONNA CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09; EQUUS MAXIMUS (IRE) 10-10-09; ERIC’S CHARM (FR) 12-10-09; KING JOHNS CASTLE (IRE) 11-10-09; OLLIE MAGERN 12-10-09; ARBOR SUPREME (IRE) 8-10-08; CANE BRAKE (IRE) 11-10-08; KILCREA CASTLE (IRE) 8-10-08; LENNON (IRE) 10-10-08; MALJIMAR (IRE) 10-10-08; NEW ALCO (FR) 9-10-08; BIBLE LORD (IRE) 9-10-07; IRISH RAPTOR (IRE) 11-10-07; MR POINTMENT (IRE) 11-10-07; PARSONS PISTOL (IRE) 8-10-07; PIRAYA (FR) 7-10-07; RAZOR ROYALE (IRE) 8-10-07; THE PACKAGE 7-10-07. HELLO BUD (IRE) 12-10-06; IRIS DE BALME (FR) 10-10-06; PALYPSO DE CREEK (FR) 7-10-06; TRUST FUND (IRE) 12-10-06; ABBEYBRANEY (IRE) 9-10-05; CERIUM (FR) 9-10-05; FLINTOFF (USA) 9-10-05; PARSONS LEGACY (IRE) 12-10-05; ROYAL ROSA (FR) 11-10-05; SILVER BIRCH (IRE) 13-10-05; COE (IRE) 8-10-04; GLENFINN CAPTAIN (IRE) 11-10-04; KNOWHERE (IRE) 12-10-04; OODACHEE 11-10-04; WHINSTONE BOY(IRE) 9-10-04; FAASEL (IRE) 9-10-03; MUMBLES HEAD (IRE) 9-10-03; OFFICIER DE RESERVE (FR) 8-10-03; SIZING AUSTRALIA (IRE) 8-10-03; TRABOLGAN (IRE) 12-10-03; CHIEF DAN GEORGE (IRE) 10-10-02; DUERS (IRE) 8-10-02; BALLYTRIM (IRE) 9-10-01; OFFSHORE ACCOUNT (IRE) 10-10-01; P AK JACK (FR) 10-10-01; BOYCHUK (IRE) 9-10-00; KINGS ADVOCATE (IRE) 10-10-00; TREACLE (IRE) 9-10-00. GALANT NUIT (FR) 6-9-13; ANOTHERCOPPERCOAST (IRE) 10-9-12; BELON GALE (IRE) 7-9-12; POMME TIEPY (FR) 7-9-12; MERIGO (FR) 9-9-10; CHIARO (FR) 8-9-09; KILBEGGAN BLADE 11-9-09; ACCORDING TO JOHN (IRE) 10-9-08; LORUM LEADER (IRE) 9-9-07; OLD BENNY 9-9-07. OVER THE CREEK 11-9-04; COSSACK DANCER (IRE) 12-9-01; WEE ROBBIE; OFFALY (IRE) 9-8-12.

I think My Will is a definite runner. Goes GC first like last year.

[Aykay1]

Re: Grand National 2010 Hi billy, I posted a link to trainer reaction on rptv in my grand national thread in atr systems forum. Nicholls seemed a little hesitant about my will running when he was interviewed, suggesting his best chance was last year. Probably 50/50.

[mileni4uk]

What's wrong with 11-02, Mr. Nicholls?! :unsure

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 My Will has not run to form this year, may be that has something to do with Nicholls comments. Second in a Group 1 in Ireland, but it was a poor race; with only 15 length winner The Listener running to form. Hennessey run was o.k. but poorly when last in a conditions race won by Our Vic. Has questions to answer when he runs in the Gold Cup. Though of course he is being trained for the National and may yet come back to form there. Would not be at all surprised if AP McCoy ends up on a Nicholls trained runner at Aintree. Unlikely King John's Castle wil run and Don't Push It is a doubtful stayer in my book. If JP wants to keep AP as his jockey, he'll have to get him on a horse with a better chance than a 40/1. Just might let him ride for someone else.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Grand National 2010 Arbor Supreme of Mullins' is JP owned mate. He rode him lto.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 Yes, JP does own Arbour Supreme, but JP was not that positive of his chance in yesterday's RP. Mullins did say he'd probably run but again he's currently a 40/1 shot. Glenfinn Captain and Can't Buy Time are also JP's but they're unlikely to run.

[billy the punter]

Re: Grand National 2010 I hear a lot of talk from trainers and pundits such as "he had his chance last year" implying that it's best to catch horses first time in the race. It was maybe the case in the past but in recent years many winners had failed in the race twelve months before. Mon Mome - 10th previous year Comply Or Die - first time over Silver Birch - fell at the chair previous year Numbersixvalverde - first time over Hedgehunter - fell at the last previous year Amberleigh House - 3rd previous year Montys Pass - 2nd in Topsham previous year Bindaree - first time over Red Marauder - fell at the 6th previous year I think placed horses had a poor record because they are usually poorly handicapped the following year. However it seems there has been a concious effor to give those types every chance this year. Along with his poorer form this year, I think the old way of thinking may've been behind PN's luke-warm comments on My Will immediately after the weights. Once everything sinks in I'm sure he will see him as well handicapped - on best form of course. The comments in yesterday's RP, once the dust had settled, was that he goes to the GC and then GN. He is out of form but there is a chance the run LTO (behind Our Vic) came too soon after the Hennessy. There are concerns surrounding him, but that is why he is 40/1 this year and not 8/1 like he was last year. Even if he runs below par in the GC surely he can't start bigger than 40/1 on last year's effort alone?

[Gingertipster]

Re: Grand National 2010 Good point about My Will's last start Billy, hadn't realised it was only 8 days between the two runs. I'd still be a bit worried hasn't run since (after not running in 07/08 season) makes me wonder if there's something wrong. Having said that, 40/1 does look too big even so. Although you could say the 3rd was "below form", think he would've done better last year with a more conventional pace from Beecher's. May be the price is more to do with being Nicholls 3rd string (no reason at all). I wouldn't lay 40/1 and is one of the outsiders to think about. Believe Aintree experience is important unless it's a particularly good jumper. Niche Market is the best jumper in the field so does not need experience. :ok