BWD Posted February 9, 2010 Share Posted February 9, 2010 As a newbie to betting systems I have been spending some time recently trying to learn the basics. Have joined the forum a while ago I have managed to pluck up the courage to join in and make my first post! While I have an interest in most sports my main interest in soccer so I have been paying quite a bit of attention to UK league matches and results since the start of the season. I have read whatever books I could find on Amazon and have been browsing this site for a while also. Having read 'Profitable Football Betting' by Paul Steele I have decided to try one of the simpler systems to start with and hopefully build on that. I have a couple of questions: - I would like to do some backtesting but I do not know where to find historical result data. Can anybody help? - The system I will start with is a variation of the league position system. Is anybody aware of where I could find an Excel model that would save me having to become an Excel expert? Thanks in advance for your help. Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 9, 2010 Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? Hi Dave, :welcome to PL. :ok You can try http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWD Posted February 9, 2010 Author Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? Thanks Paul. That was quick! Do you think the historical data is relevant for a league position system or would it be necessary to find data for each week for instance and work off of that. Can you recommend another system to start with if that is the case? Dave Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 9, 2010 Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? Can you elaborate on what you mean by league position system? ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWD Posted February 9, 2010 Author Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? The system works on the basis of allocating points to home wins, away wins and draws. Paul Steel shows a number of variations on the amounts of points allocated for each result and the success rates associated with each variation. The results are for the 2001/2002 season and I would like to check it on a more recent season. (The more I think about this the more it sound like it would be very difficult to back test!). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir Puntalot Posted February 9, 2010 Share Posted February 9, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? I don't the know the system, but what I often find with systems is that they are over-complicated. This sounds like one of them. I'm going to move this to the systems forum, where it will get more attention. For the record - I have my own football ratings that may interest you. They can be found in the UK Football Forum and also on www.freebetsgalore.com :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BWD Posted February 11, 2010 Author Share Posted February 11, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? Thanks for that Paul. Am away at the moment but will have a look at your ratings and will be back on with more questions soon I'm sure! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Where to find stats for back testing? Have just read the Paul Steele book where he concludes by advocating a four step process; filtering the fixture list by a combination of 3 quite convoluted systems before finally deciding what to bet on by reading the current teams news. I wrote a program to do the calculations for steps 1 to 3, and can recommend to anyone who wants to try it that they can save themselves a lot of effort simply sorting the fixture list in price order and then going straight to step 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.