Destination Valuetown

[Samba_SamPa]

Inspired by the issue of making your own tissues in the Australian Open, I'm going to embark on a value-based glory hunt. I'll look at various sporting events throughout the days, and make my own tissue for them. If there's any value to be obtained from the dastardly bookmakers then it could* be a selection for my glory hunt. * I'll use the Kelly Staking method. Seems to make sense for a value-based GH. But as I'm a great big wuss, I shall be staking Kelly/10 (it's a tad aggressive/risky for me!). A selection MUST have a Kelly Stake of at least 10% of bank (so 1% after my reduction) for it to qualify as a bet for this GH. I'll only use bookmakers so I haven't got to faff around with commissions. I'm going to start with £100, and the only bets I will make in real life are bets I will post in this thread. It's about time I learnt some discipline. I envisage bets on football, golf, tennis, darts, snooker, rugby. But definitely no bets on horse racing or greyhounds as I simply can't make a tissue for 8, 10, 16 runner events.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Destination Valuetown Bet 001 Roger Federer v Nikolai Davydenko (Australian Open 1/4 Final, 27/01/10) 3.58pts Federer @ 4/11 (Paddy Power) ----- I make Federer an 83% (1.205) chance to beat Davydenko, so the 1.364 on offer is value. Kelly Staking dictates a 35.78% stake, so I have placed a 3.58% stake. ----- Bet 002 Novak Djokovic v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (Australian Open 1/4 Final, 27/01/10) 3.23pts Djokovic @ 9/20 (Boylesports) ----- I make Djokovic a 79% chance to beat Tsonga. I was perturbed to hear Tsonga's negativity about the clash following his marathon win against Almagro in the previous round. Tsonga appeared to feel like the fatigue carried forwards from that match would impact on him negatively by the time he faced NoDjo. If he enters this game with even the slightest doubt in his mind, then NoDjo will capitalise. The 1.45 on offer is value. Kelly dictates a 32.33% stake, so I have placed a 3.23% stake. ----- Old Balance £100.00 Bet 001 Stake £3.58 Bet 002 Stake £3.23 New Balance £93.19