jtw1 Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Sorry, excuse my ignorance, but you've obviously got a nice little system going here...I just have one question: what does the +196 mean for the Man U game from last night? Sorry if that's dumb... :$ No problem mate , as i stated at the start the numbers represent the ratings for each game given on H2HSTATS and GOONERSGUIDE website's Therefore the +196 is the rating that Goonersguide has given the Man U game to finish as a home win [ the higher the number the better the chance of that team winning [ in theory ] ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Ok, thanks buddy. I thought that's probably what it was, I just didn't know what the points meant. Cheers, will be following this with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soeyaza Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system jtw, very exciting thread!!! good luck on and on!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hi jtw1, first of all let me tell you one thing : YOU are the WORLD´s GREATEST :nana If there would be a ranking list here to classify all posts, you would surely be on place one in the soccersection as your ideas and posts are well thought, easy to understand, clearly structured and very good readable. But now I just want to add the short statistic of the 24 games which we were able to follow here. Games: 24 Results : 22-2 correct bets --- unbelievable strike-rate of 91,66 % :drums over 2,5 : 18-6 HC-1 : 16-8 So what does this mean ? You need a quote of 1,09 to win on match bets You need a quote of 1,33 to win on over 2,5 bets You need a quote of 1,50 to win on HC -1 bets The real quote for match bets was 1,499 ! The real quote for over and HC -1 can´t be calculated as I have no history, but depending on a 1,5 on normal odds, the quote for HC -1 should be arround 2,0 - 2,2 on average. And for sure, the over 2,5 average is much higher than the needed 1,33, may be arround 1,7 or so. So what ever you bet on your selections, it will be a big profit, and played as combinations, it will be much higher, alhough there will be losses, too. Please explain your strategy to us. Ok, you use the named websites to find the scoring and the H2H, that´s clear and can be done by anyone of us. The H2H just disqualifies a game if it is negative, right? and what are the restrictions for the ratings? You found out another wonderful little successful strategy here, and as you part it to us, it would be nice to know the exact rules. Congratulations for your work, it is really impressive :clap Greetings from good old Germany Stefan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Cheers Stefan :ok as for the exact rules .. well i try to stick to the following myself. 1- H2H rating MUST be 3.0 or HIGHER 2- Gooners guide rating is generally over 100 [ can be lower i've noticed ] and it's the ML PK column that we're interested in . 3- As yet i've tried to avoid judging games by the previous h2h's as the ratings from bith siyes take into account CURRENT form therefore previous meetings may be negated in this case . I'll still be posting the h2h's but for reference only . 4- When it comes to betting , if the odds are 1.2 or UNDER then i've been taking the -1 handicap in the majority of games . I feel thats where the advantage lies in most of these matches. 5- In games where the odds are around 1.3 - 2.0 i simply take those odds for a straight win . Not had too many OVER 2.0 and to be honest i'm still wary but will be looking to bet these with a +1 goal handicap if the odds are favourable . Will have to wait and see if any turn up !!!! 6- I have been betting accumulators , as the strike rate is very favourable for these types of bets . I would advise followers to stick to no more than 4 timers generally . Nothing wrong with a 6/7 timer but to smallish stakes i suggest . 7- I have been mixing the selections on here with picks from my HEAD TO HEAD MEETINGS thread where games that meet the h2h criteria and that have a H2H rating of OVER 3.0 is showing promise with 13 wins from 15 selections [ with hindsight i should have ignored the Romanian game last week as they have just resumed after their long winter break ] Thats basically the gist of things Stefan , if you any further clarification just let me know mate and i'll try and answer :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system oh , i forgot to mention I HATE AWAYS :@ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 25, 2010 Author Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Onto this weekends selections and as well as these 3 there may be one more from Spain but the ratings have not been posted on GG yet . CHELSEA v man city +170 , +3.63 , h2h - 7-2-0 . odds = 1.44 AC MILAN v atalanta +132 , +3.13 , h2h - 5-4-1 . odds = 1.33 LIVERPOOL v blackburn +213 , +4.25 , h2h - 7-5-0. odds = 1.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted February 25, 2010 Share Posted February 25, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Thanks for your description, now I know what you do and it is exactly what I thought you do :D Therefore in the meantime I analysed the selections of goonersguide for the last 30 days covering the italian, german, english and spanish league (not the championsleague as here we sometimes have special situations as in cup games). match odds 23-4 winners over 2,5 we have 17-10 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 15-11 winners (one game was called as a draw prediction so we cant bet on a handicap win) so far so good. here are the odds ( I used the quote history on www.oddsoddsodds.com): match odds needed for break even: 1,174 odds of winning selections : 1,57 over 2,5 goals needed for break even: 1,59 odds of winning selections: 1,844 Handicap -1 needed for break even: 1,733 odds on winning selections : 2,31 That is really impressive, isn´t it ? We will have to proof these great results in the upcomming weeks, but if they get confirmed may be this will be a massive pfofit system. Let´s wait and see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Re: Football ratings system CHELSEA v man city 2-4 :eyes AC MILAN v atalanta 3-1 :loon LIVERPOOL v blackburn 2-1 :loon What a surprise at Stamford Bridge !!! However the sunday game's keep the strike rate going , although a slight drop in profit , and all 3 ended OVER 2.5 goals !! Selections - 39 Winners - 34 Profit to level 10pt win stake = 107.70pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Football ratings system And here is the update of the goonersguide selections for the last 30 days covering the italian, german, english and spanish league match odds 27-8 winners over 2,5 we have 24-11 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 17-15 winners (three games were called as a draw prediction so we cant bet on a handicap win) here are the odds: match odds needed for break even: 1,2963 odds of winning selections : 1,5800 over 2,5 goals needed for break even: 1,4583 odds of winning selections: 1,9108 Handicap -1 needed for break even: 1,8824 odds on winning selections : 2,3253 The trend goes on! For information: Betting 100 Units on every game for match odds, over 2,5 and Handicap paid back a win of 2605 Units Betting so many Units to always win 100 Units on any selection (of course only if it is right) paid back a win of 3417 Units Well I think we should keep all eyes on this idea here. That looks really profitable :cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted March 3, 2010 Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: Football ratings system nice thread u've got here.. sorry if i sound ignorant, but what do the numbers 3-1-2 , 7-2-0 , 5-4-1 etc stand for ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: Football ratings system nice thread u've got here.. sorry if i sound ignorant, but what do the numbers 3-1-2 , 7-2-0 , 5-4-1 etc stand for ? They stand for the h2h record each team has against their opposition that day eg 3-1-2 means that in the last 6 meetings the home side has won 3 , 1 was a draw and the away side won twice . :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 3, 2010 Author Share Posted March 3, 2010 Re: Football ratings system GOONER has posted his numbers early this week so here's the selections for Sat/Sun. Saturday -------- ARSENAL v burnley +237 , +3.75 , h2h = 0-0-0 , odds - 1.14 WEST HAM v bolton +91 , +4.38 , h2h = 4-2-2 , odds - 1.8 DEPOR LA CORUNA v tenerife +126 , +3.63 , h2h 3-2-0 , odds - 1.61 REAL MADRID v seville +115 , +4.13 , h2h = 9-0-2 , odds - 1.33 Sunday ------ PALERMO v livorno +130 , +5.0 , h2h = 4-0-2 , odds - 1.5 EVERTON v hull +150 , +5.25 , h2h = 1-0-0 , odds - 1.4 MALLORCA v sp gijon +143 , +3.0 , h2h = 1-0-1 , odds - 1.8 INTER MILAN v genoa +111 , +3.88 , h2h = 1-1-0 , odds - 1.4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shinigami Posted March 4, 2010 Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Football ratings system They stand for the h2h record each team has against their opposition that day eg 3-1-2 means that in the last 6 meetings the home side has won 3 ' date=' 1 was a draw and the away side won twice . :ok[/quote'] thanks for ur reply & all the best to ur picks :cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt988 Posted March 4, 2010 Share Posted March 4, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hello everybody, Good strategy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: Football ratings system I've had a bet on ALL 8 games finishing OVER 1.5 goals , which pays around 5.0 and a 4-timer on Saturdays games to finish OVER 2.5 which pays around 8.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 6, 2010 Author Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Football ratings system I've had a bet on ALL 8 games finishing OVER 1.5 goals ' date=' which pays around 5.0 and a 4-timer on Saturdays games to finish OVER 2.5 which pays around 8.0[/quote'] 3-1 Arsenal , 1-2 West Ham :eyes and 3-1 in play at Depor means i'm waiting for at least 3 in the Real game tonight [ i'll settle for 2 ..... just ] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razaldo9 Posted March 6, 2010 Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Football ratings system I tried something with the overs market. If over 2.5 had lower odds than under 2.5 I backed that, but if over 2.5 was greater odds than under 2.5 I backed over 1.5. I used the odds from total goals on bet365 for the comparison and changed them to 'goal line' bets if they were better odds. Event Date Event Selections Odds Result 1 06/03/2010 Arsenal v Burnley (Total Goals) Over 2.5 1.40 Won 2 06/03/2010 Real Madrid v Sevilla (Total Goals) Over 2.5 1.47 To Run 3 06/03/2010 West Ham v Bolton (Goal Line) Over 1.5 1.255 Won 4 07/03/2010 Palermo v Livorno (Goal Line) Over 1.5 1.29 To Run 5 07/03/2010 Mallorca v Sporting Gijon (Goal Line) Over 1.5 1.24 To Run 6 06/03/2010 D Coruna v Tenerife (Goal Line) Over 1.5 1.235 Won 7 07/03/2010 Everton v Hull (Goal Line) Over 2.5 1.85 To Run 8 07/03/2010 Inter Milan v Genoa (Goal Line) Over 2.5 1.735 To Run Would have just got away with over 2.5 on bolton and it was comfortable on Deportivo, but hopefully being more cautious will see a win tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 6, 2010 Author Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Football ratings system 3-1 Arsenal ' date=' 1-2 West Ham :eyes and 3-1 in play at Depor means i'm waiting for at least 3 in the Real game tonight [ i'll settle for 2 ..... just '] Currently 2-2 in MADRID :nana:nana:nana:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 6, 2010 Author Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Football ratings system 3-2 in the 91st min !!! Ok a winning 8.0 4-timer today and tomorrow's 4 under 1.5 bets still to come for the 8-timer. Sunday - I've bet Sundays 4 to finish OVER 2.5 @ around 11.2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rushian Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Football ratings system I've had a bet on ALL 8 games finishing OVER 1.5 goals ' date=' which pays around 5.0 and a 4-timer on Saturdays games to finish OVER 2.5 which pays around 8.0[/quote'] A big thanks jtw1 :clap Although I'm not a fan of accumulators, I've had a small punt on yesterday's selections which for Over 2.5 and it duly came in! Cheers! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt988 Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Hello, Why do you think than yesterday, there were a lot of over 2.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Axel Freed Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Football ratings system so its better to play the -1 instead of the lower ML? great system you have, good luck. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: Football ratings system ARSENAL 3-1 :loon WEST HAM 1-2 :eyes D CORUNA 3-1 :loon REAL MADRID 3-2 :loon EVERTON 5-1 :loon MALLORCA 3-0 :loon PALERMO 1-0 :loon INTER 0-0 :eyes 6 OUT OF 8 , not a bad weekend Selections = 47 Winners = 40 Profit to a 10pt level win stake = 115.50pts :ok I think i may have caused a bit of confusion by stating my OVER 2.5 goal bet using those matches at the weekend. First and foremost this system was set up and still is principally aimed at finding straight WINNERS eg Home or Away wins . It was because of the high proportion of games which were ending OVER 2.5 goals that i decided to try my luck with a couple of those bets , fortunately Saturdays came in with a decent return . It has also highlighted a high proportion of teams which beat the -1 goal Handicap but this weekend only 4 out of the 8 obliged in that sphere . I will start , as of this weekend , to keep a note of the odds available for both OVER's and -1 as well as the straight win odds . I will keep a total of the Profit/Loss for all 3 of these as single bets to see which is more advantageous BUT it's still the straight Home/Away win that will lead the way for the foreseeable . ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 12, 2010 Author Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Sat --- SPURSv blackburn +157 , +3.5 , win - 1.44 , Over - 1.85 , -1 = 2.3. B MUNICH v freiburg +193 , +4.5 , win - 1.16 , Over - 1.4 , -1 = 1.5. Sun ---- livorno v ROMA -87 , -3.5 , win - 1.8 , Over - 2.0 , -1 = 3.6 GENOA v cagliari +106 , +3.88 , win - 1.86 , Over - 1.75 , -1 = 3.6 MAN U v fulham +199 , +3.63 , win - 1.22 , Over - 1.66 , -1 = 1.72 BARCELONA v valencia +150 , +4.38 , win - 1.4 , Over - 1.55 , -1 = 2.2 Hope i've not complicated things too much :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted March 12, 2010 Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: Football ratings system And here is the update of the goonersguide selections since 1st of february covering the italian, german, english and spanish league match odds 37-18 winners over 2,5 we have 35-20 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 22-26 winners (seven games were called as a draw prediction so we cant bet on a handicap win) here are the odds: match odds needed for break even: 1,4865 odds of winning selections : 1,6138 :ok over 2,5 goals needed for break even: 1,5714 odds of winning selections: 1,9171 :ok:ok:ok Handicap -1 needed for break even: 2,1818 odds of winning selections : 2,3598 :ok Last weekend was the first one showing a loss :cry For information: Betting 100 Units on every game for match odds, over 2,5 and Handicap paid back a win of 2072,50 Units Betting so many Units to win 100 Units on any selection (of course only if it is right) paid back a win of 2949,02 Units Well I think loosing weekends are normal and we can not prevend them but more important is the main result and that still shows a massive win, so this idea is still worth to regard :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jtw1 Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Football ratings system 6/6 OVERS this weekend ..... so far as there's one game on Monday - LIVERPOOL v Portsmouth +182 , +3.83 , win 1.28 , over - 1.7 , -1 = 1.83 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: Football ratings system And here is the update of the goonersguide selections since 1st of february covering the italian, german, english and spanish league match odds 47-20 winners over 2,5 we have 46-21 winners Handicap -1 on the favorite 30-30 winners (seven games were called as a draw prediction so we cant bet on a handicap win) here are the odds: match odds needed for break even: 1,4255 odds of winning selections : 1,5655 :ok over 2,5 goals needed for break even: 1,4565 odds of winning selections: 1,8907 :ok:ok:ok Handicap -1 needed for break even: 2,0000 odds of winning selections : 2,3062 :ok What a fantastic weekend. 10 of 12 favorites won, 11 of 12 overs won and 8 of 12 handicaps won, that is nearly perfect. For information: Betting 100 Units on every game for match odds, over 2,5 and Handicap paid back a win of 3573,50 Units :clap Betting so many Units to win 100 Units on any selection (of course only if it is right) paid back a win of 5159,73 Units :nana I have never seen a better system and it is so easy to use. Well we have to wait and check more upcoming selections, but we now have a database of 6 weeks and I think another 6 weeks till the end of april will give us either a green or a red light to trust in this system. Hunting for a good system for more than 20 years and this easy idea should be the best ??? Is it that simple ??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onionbaj Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Good work Brecki. Excellent find jtw1. I've been lurking around looking for something I can apply a disciplined approach to (rather than my normal half-hearted attempts at discipline which get ruined while watching weekend live football!!). This has been the most profitable period for me this season. I have been mug-punter gambling for over 20 years and at last i'm trying to learn from my mistakes. I'm currently building a football database and think it would be good if I could apply these (jtw1's) principles so it gives me my own automated selection process. Just need to capture how goonersguide calculates his rating. cheers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: Football ratings system Just need to capture how goonersguide calculates his rating. As soon as you have find out how they calculate the ratings, please let us know here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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