ofcourseitwas Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Hello all, this is my first posting for Punters Lounge, but have been following many of your threads for quite some time. This system will be based on home form, especially in the last few games. Away games that have taken place in the meantime are also taken into account. Goals scored and conceded are all part of the selection process in a point-based system. Also, time between past matches and upcoming matches plays a major factor. I have back-tested somewhat and found that this has produced a good yield. Matches will come from leagues all over Europe and will usually be in the 1X2 and Asian Handicap markets. This will be a paper-trail at first, but hope to place some stakes on it at some point. Starting bank will be unlimited, but will place 10 pts even stakes on each selection. I am optimistic about this and hope you can share in the success! :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guppie Posted January 19, 2010 Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! :welcome and good luck:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted January 19, 2010 Author Share Posted January 19, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! First selection comes in Thursday's Copa Del Rey: Atletico Madrid vs Celta Vigo Back Atletico -1 @ 1.70 Odds found at 188Bet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 10, 2010 Author Share Posted February 10, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Back Atletico -1 @ 1.70 :( Bets: 1 Wins: 0 Profit/Loss: -10 Yield: -100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 10, 2010 Author Share Posted February 10, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Decided to give this another go. 2 matches for tonight: Auxerre vs. Plabennec: back Auxerre @ 1.35 (Interwetten) FC Porto vs Academica: back Porto -1 @ 1.63 (10Bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 10, 2010 Author Share Posted February 10, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Ok it is still over an hour before kickoff. I put the wrong Coupe de France match. Remove the Auxerre game and insert St. Etienne. The 2 matches are below: St. Etienne vs Vannes: back St. Etienne -1 @ 2.10 FC Porto vs Academica: back Porto -1 @ 1.63 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 11, 2010 Author Share Posted February 11, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Ok it is still over an hour before kickoff. I put the wrong Coupe de France match. Remove the Auxerre game and insert St. Etienne. The 2 matches are below: St. Etienne vs Vannes: back St. Etienne -1 @ 2.10 FC Porto vs Academica: back Porto -1 @ 1.63 Yesterday was better! 1 win and 1 draw brings the yield back into the positive. St. Etienne vs Vannes: back St. Etienne -1 @ 2.10 :clap FC Porto vs Academica: back Porto -1 @ 1.63 :tongue2 Bets: 3 Won: 2 Staked: 30 Profit: +1 Yield: 3.3% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 11, 2010 Author Share Posted February 11, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Two matches for tomorrow: Zwolle vs Telstar (Neth): back Zwolle @ 1.40 Caracas vs Mineros (Venez): back Caracas @ 1.65 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted February 11, 2010 Share Posted February 11, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Good luck, mate. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 12, 2010 Author Share Posted February 12, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! First match won today, but will wait for the second before updating. Here are 3 matches for the weekend: Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund (Germ): back Bayern -1 @ 1.75 Grasshoppers vs Aarau (Swiss): back Grasshoppers -1 @ 1.92 Rhyl vs New Town (Wales): back Rhyl -1 @ 1.75 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! 2 more wins on friday: Zwolle vs Telstar (Neth): back Zwolle @ 1.40 :clap Caracas vs Mineros (Venez): back Caracas @ 1.65 :clap Bets: 5 Won: 4 Staked: 50 Profit: +11.5 Yield: 23% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Bayern won tonight, but Grasshoppers match was postponed and will not be included. Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund (Germ): back Bayern -1 @ 1.75 :clap Bets: 6 Won: 5 Staked: 60 Profit: +19 Yield: 32% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 13, 2010 Author Share Posted February 13, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Rhyl v New Town only match for tomorrow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 14, 2010 Author Share Posted February 14, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Excellent! another win today: Rhyl vs New Town (Wales): back Rhyl -1 @ 1.75 :clap Bets: 7 Won: 6 Staked: 70 Profit: +26.5 Yield: 38% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! two selections tomorrow (wednesday): Newcastle vs Coventry: back Newcastle @ 1.53 Bayern Munich vs Fiorentina: back Bayern -1 @ 2.00 hope the good form continues :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! One more match for tonight: Everton vs Sporting Lisbon: back Everton -0.75 @ 2.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! A good start mate, keep it up! Can I just say that, as a Coventry fan, I wouldn't be jumping for joy if you carry on getting them all right! :\ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! thanks pj, a loss must come at sometime so maybe it will be in coventry's favor. :\ I couldn't understand why odds were so high for Everton though, clearly there was value in this bet before kickoff, even if sporting do look more impressive as the match is being played. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pjhrt Posted February 16, 2010 Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Personally, I think Forest are outstanding odds at 1.92 on Betfair. I've got a large single on them. I can't see Cov getting anything out of St James' so you should be ok there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 16, 2010 Author Share Posted February 16, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Everton won this one convincingly if not for a 86' penalty/mistake by Distin. Still have Bayern and Newcastle to play tomorrow. hope you're right pj :hope Everton vs Sporting Lisbon: back Everton -0.75 @ 2.00 :clap (win 1/2) Bets: 8 Won: 7 Staked: 80 Profit: +31.5 Yield: 39% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 17, 2010 Author Share Posted February 17, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Matches for tonight yet to be played, but going ahead and posting the lone selection tomorrow: Universidad de Chile vs Caracas (Copa Lib): back U. Chile -1 @ 1.90 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 18, 2010 Author Share Posted February 18, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! YES! fiorentina almost pulled one off in this match, but Klose saved it with a late goal. Newcastle showed their class after going 1 down: Newcastle vs Coventry: back Newcastle @ 1.53 :clap Bayern Munich vs Fiorentina: back Bayern -1 @ 2.00 :lol Bets: 10 Won: 9 Staked: 100 Profit: +36.8 Yield: 37% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Matches for tonight yet to be played, but going ahead and posting the lone selection tomorrow: Universidad de Chile vs Caracas (Copa Lib): back U. Chile -1 @ 1.90 A draw is not a loss :). I'm not sure if I should include draws in calculating my yield? Can someone offer any opinions on that? Not counting drawn bets, the yield would be somewhere around 46%. Universidad de Chile vs Caracas (Copa Lib): back U. Chile -1 @ 1.90 :) Bets: 11 Won: 10 Staked: 110 Profit: +36.8 Yield: 34% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! 3 selections for Saturday: Newcastle vs Preston (EngChamp): back Newcastle @ 1.57 Stevenage vs Workington (FA Trophy): back Stevenage -1.5 @ 2.10 Port Talbot vs Welshpool (Wales): back Port Talbot @ 1.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted February 19, 2010 Share Posted February 19, 2010 Re: Home Form Counts! Well done for your picks so far! :clap As for your question, I think most people include the draws into their yield. Unless the match is postponed or did not finish, then it's probably right not to include. Just thought I should point out a little issue about your strike rate. Usually for handicaps, people separate their results into Win/Draw/Lose. Draw in the sense that you back Team A -1 and Team A wins by 1 goal. I see that you have put it down as a win, but it's not much of an issue. The yield is more important in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 19, 2010 Author Share Posted February 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 21, 2010 Author Share Posted February 21, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 22, 2010 Author Share Posted February 22, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ofcourseitwas Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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