The ATR Interviews (10) ~ Gingertipster

[BillyHills]

Sorry about the delay for our next instalment, one or two hitches but here we are with an interesting member of the PL that always gives us value for money and lively discussions. Gingertipster (Mark) joined us in July 2007 and was quickly known for his views on value betting and his dedication in explaining 'The table of odds and chances'. Whether you agree with it or not you have to admire his loyalty to his side of the argument and to be fair many members have found it very useful. Such was his impact that Ginge had on the ATR, within just 5 months of posting his first thread in the ATR, which was some value selections at a Goodwood meeting, he won the 'Best Newcomer' award and has been nominated for various other awards since. Despite a brief interlude he his back in full swing and continues to be a valuable member of the forum, always willing to share his wealth of knowledge and not afraid to speak his mind when challenged, I can vouch for that after being on the receiving end more than once. Thanks to Mark for a very detailed response to my waffling, hope you enjoy it and dont be afraid to ask anything I didnt, i'm sure you will get a reply. BH ____________________________________ Previous Issues in case you missed them;

• Bowles10
• Ralphie7
• Fintron
• RussP
• Billy The Punter
• Chris34
• Mowgli77
• Spooner
• Stewartd14

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[BillyHills]

Re: The ATR Interviews (10) ~ Gingertipster The Punters Lounge 1/ You joined the PL in July 2007, how did you come across the site in the first place? You won't be surprised to know BH, I was banned from another forum. :$ Had a “value” betting thread there which was going extremely well. Wanted somewhere to vent my opinion and a racing pal was already a member here and recommended PL. 2/ Do you think PL differs or offers anything more than the other betting forums out there? PL is very good at insisting on at least a small write up with tips. Although to a certain degree, the main reason one horse is a good bet is the failings of it's rivals. Started putting write ups on another forum and they seemed surprised anyone bothered with anything else bar a race time and selection. PL is also better at making newbies welcome than some other sites. Hopefully they can ask any question without feeling patronised. Everyone has to start somewhere. 3/ You seemed to have stopped your individual tipping thread, what was the reasoning behind that? Obviously, in betting threads selections should not be included if put up after the race in question. Does not mean the person is putting up known winners, it just does not look good and enables others to make what may be false allegations. Therefore, for a selection thread showing any claim of profit; it is (imo) imperative there is no possibility of any tips being decided on after the race had finished. However knowledgeable the author or how interesting the thread is. I had a problem with one thread which had what I saw as ambiguous selection criteria and did not want to continue with mine until this had been sorted out by the mods. Despite them doing this to my satisfaction (removing the claimed profit); by then I had started a betting thread on another forum and did not want two on the go. Believe me, you haven't missed much. Might start another one when I begin betting on the flat. 4/ Is there anything that annoys you on PL or improvements that you would make? Think the vast majority of PL is excellent. Something that does annoy me a little is (imo) the “Table Of Odds And Chances” should be in the stickys somewhere. It is an exceptionally helpful punters tool for profit making. May also stop me banging on about the thing so much. ;) 5/ Do you think the role of moderator is appreciated by the members? Moderator's role is probably appreciated by most members. However, some of us tend to keep to just a few sections of PL. It is not until a good look around that one appreciates the work you all do. There's also a flaw in my temperament which means I don't say “thank you” as often as I should. So let me go a little way to redeem myself by saying “thank you” now. 6/ Bowles has been discussing the possibility of some meet ups with members of the ATR, would you support them? It is a good idea by Bowles, am sure most members will be delighted with an initiative for PL meet ups. For me depends on how it is done (already a member of one “racing club”). If, as seems the aim, it is free membership, then yes I would probably be interested. Although I am a member at most courses I go to these days, so not sure how likely I am to use it. Would certainly like to meet individual members at the races anyway, putting faces to names. I go racing for the racing, not particularly to socialise. Around the paddock or grandstand is where I can normally be found. So if anyone is thinking of going to Newbury, Goodwood or Salisbury, do let me know. Have asked a few I've known are going, but as yet nobody's let themselves be known. May be they're trying to tell me something?! :loon 7/ Do you think there are enough discussion threads on the ATR or is it all about tips and individual threads? Would love to see more “discussion” threads. It sometimes puts me off starting them when there's often a poor response. Doesn't seem to be many threads on racing politics, breeding, conformation, attributes of different trainers, jockeys and other racing people etc. Not that there's anything wrong with being primarily a “betting” fan. Suppose the name “Punters Lounge” does suggest a betting rather than racing oriented forum. Though I do believe it is very difficult to do well at betting on racing if not interested in “racing” generally. 8/ You won an award for best newcomer of 2007 and have been nominated for an award this year too. How do you feel about the PL Oscars and being nominated by fellow members? The Oscars are a great idea. They give praise and appreciation to people who have put in good work over the year. Being Oscar nominated is an honour in itself, for enough members to vote for you to win is something else. Didn't really feel I deserved anything this year, been absent for a good part of it. Not that there was any chance of success up against you BH. One idea might be to add to them and have Oscars for racing professionals too. Jump / flat trainer, jump / flat jockey, apprentice, conditional, sprinter, miler, distaff miler, middle distance, middle distance distaff, stayer, two year old, two yearar old distaff, racehorse and racing personality (all OF THE YEAR). Horse Racing And Betting 1/ What got you interested in horse racing? Don't know what initially got me interested. Mother (who went to the village school with David Elsworth) tells me I wanted to be a jockey when knee high to a pony. Suppose I loved animals so the horses appealed. My grandfather liked racing but only bet on the National and Derby. It might have been because nobody was interested in it that I became so enamoured. (see also 4/) 2/ What type of racing do you enjoy the most and why, flat, NH, big races, sprints, classics, AW? Enjoy jumps and flat equally, for opposite reasons. Jumps because horses are usually around for much longer. We are truly lucky having three of the best ever chasers and one great hurdler. Kauto Star, Denman, Master Minded and Big Buck's. On the other hand I like flat racing because of it's ever changing nature. Trying to assess the two year olds, have they the scope to improve next year, breeding, likely distance and going requirements etc. Sea The Stars was perhaps the best horse I've ever seen. I know some people don't like horses retiring “early”. But he had run 6 times in 2009, it appears Kauto Star and Denman may only run 3 times each this term. If I had to choose between the two, I'd say flat racing as there are fewer fatalities / injuries. However, Cheltenham is the best meeting in the world, though preferred the three day Festival and do wonder whether the rest of jump racing suffers because of it. With connections not caring too much if they win or lose, as Chelters is what matters. Grand National is the best and easiest race to make a profit on (except this year). It is top quality racing in both spheres that I like most, guess I am a racing snob. Very few bets in class 5 handicaps, certainly no 6's. Don't particularly like sprint or staying handicaps in all but the top grade. Prefer 7 to 12f handicaps as they are not so prone to horses winning under penalties or trouble in running (sprints) or those coming off the jumps (stayers). For pattern races it does not matter what the distance. I've had more bets on American dirt racing (Breeders Cup) than I have British All Weather. Nothing wrong with it (other than the awful standard of some meetings). It's just, there's so much racing to study, so it's a way of cutting the number of betting races down. 3/ If you could change one thing in racing or betting overnight, what would that be? One thing in racing, just one thing, there are so many! To knock the heads of all squabbling factions in racing together. We often here of what's good for “racing”. What they really mean is what's good for their own part of racing. Bookmakers are part of racing and “Racing” should not think they're the enemy and instead work with them. Owners, trainers and jockeys all want “better prize money”, basically more from bookmakers who's money comes directly from punters. If the punter has to pay more to connections of winners, then that's robbing the poor to pay the rich in a time of economic down turn. Well sadly they're going to have far less in future, bookies profits are decreasing (believe some even had to go to their share-holders for more money) so the levy is going to drop significantly. With a decreasing levy something needs to be done. May be the answer is to use it to fund the better standards of racing. With class 6 races allowed only without levy funding, courses who want to put it on supplying the money themselves at their own risk. Or gradually up the rating for minimum weight in such races, to eventually get rid of class 6 entirely. At a lot of Kempton's all weather rubbish race meetings there aren't enough punters on course for many bookmakers to bother turning up. This leads to uncompetitive markets, very high over-rounds and appalling value for punters. If few people want this stuff why put it on in the first place? There is too much racing and too much rubbish racing in particular. We should be encouraging a better standard, not a worse one. If we had a competitive Tote acting in the interests of racing it would help. Some people want a Tote monopoly to put money back in to the game. Had they slashed their “over-round” to 104 or 105%, they could easily have had an on-course monopoly. Because it would've been impossible for on course bookies to compete. With it's sell off there seems no prospect of racing benefiting now. I'd also ban summer jumps racing. I know courses do their best to produce good going, but in my opinion it is often still firm ground (if not officially so), so is too dangerous. Firmer the ground the faster a horse has to travel over a fence; the faster it goes the more likely it is to fall; the harder the ground the more likely a fall results in serious or fatal injury. This would also solve the ludicrous happening of one season ending one day and another starting the next. Sorry, that's two things I'd change and never even got on to entrance fees; and whether going reports and the decision to race should be taken out of the course's hands! 4/ Can you remember your first bet, how old were you, and where did you put it on? My first “bet” was as a child of 9 or 10 on a family sweepstake. I picked Red Rum when he finished second. Picked up the money and then we heard the result. “First number 6 (or was it 16?) Rag Trade. My grandmother had chosen only by a number and yes, it was Rag Trade. So I vividly remember handing over the winnings, it hurt! Of course I got it back the following year. Much to my father's anguish, having Andy Pandy, clear at second Becher's when falling. My first three bets with “bookies” all won. Little Owl (Gold Cup) Fairy Footsteps (1000) and To-Agori-Mou (2000) in 81. They were all put on by a school friend's dad. After that I was considered the “racing expert”. Also acted as school bookmaker for Aldaniti and Grittar's National; even a couple of teachers bet with me! Mother tried to put me off by encouraging me to write down every bet I would have (if allowed). Yet by some miracle I made a profit. Went racing a few times before I was 18, winning 4 from 4 on my first visit to Newbury. My first two legal bets when walking in to a betting shop myself were in 1984, Prince Sabo (Scarborough) and Comanche Court (St Leger), both won. Thought I knew everything and lost £200 within a few months. :sad 5/ Can you reveal your biggest win to date, you don't have to be specific about the amount, but what was it on? Have told this story more than once before. It was Rooster Booster in the 2003 Champion Hurdle. Saw him win the Greatwood the previous November under a big weight. Believed the performance must make him about a 20% 4/1 shot for the Festival. Most bookies went 8/1, Stan James offered 12/1. Had my usual bet (at the time), put the phone down and immediately thought it was far too good a chance to waste. Backed it again, this time to win four figures. Few days later my Timeform arrived, stating it was a “performance good enough to win 3 of the last 4 Champion Hurdles”. Went in again at then top price 8/1, SP was 9/2. :nanaNot until this year did I find out it was also Dave Nevison's biggest individual winner, backed at almost the same time. Somehow he got 14's, anyway, they say great minds think alike. :lol 6/ What percentage of profit / turnover do you think makes a successful punter? All depends what you call “successful”. The first thing is to make is a profit, that is a success. But the figure you hear quoted by professional gamblers is 10% profit. A figure I have not hit for a year or two. :cry 7/ You have said you consider yourself semi-pro, can you explain to the members how does this actually work? Did I really say I consider myself a “semi-pro”? It's true, I have gone very part time in “work” to concentrate on my “investing” (now a non-tax payer) so suppose semi-pro is right in that sense. Before I go for everything, I wanted to prove to myself I could do it. Although profitable, it has not gone as well as I'd wished. Had a better record as an amateur; still there's time. Hopefully the game has not changed so much that I am unable to do it any more. :unsure 8/ Your “logo” is “Value is Everything” when did you get involved in this concept and what made you head in this direction? “Value is everything” has been the way ever since my first Timeform book. Used to look at the best two or three chances and just back the best value between them. Did not know what value really meant though, until a chance meeting in the early 90's. Talking to a bloke paddock-side at Wincanton about how to bet. He explained why a 33/1 shot can be a good bet, even though you believe it to have an infinitely worse chance than the favourite. The mathematics made perfect sense. Now know the bloke to be pro gambler Alan Potts. I then bought a book called “Betting The Timeform Way”, and it devoted a full chapter to the Table.... 9/ The “table of odds and chances” is widely used in mechanical things like roulette for example, is there more variance in dealing with horses, or is it just percentages? Used in roulette BH, you mean to tell you it's a waste of time? With roulette there are definite chances, with each number having the same chance of coming up. Odds are also definite, and stacked in the casino's favour. Unlike roulette, racing does not have definite chances or odds, but that is an advantage. Bookmakers (or layers) don't know the definite odds of each individual horse, they can only form an educated opinion and add a mark up. The same as we can come to an educated opinion about it's fair odds. Of course a punter still has to be good at assessing a race to form a good opinion. 10/ As value is the top priority for you, does this mean the vast majority of your betting is done on exchanges? Around 50% of my bets these days are on exchanges, betting more with bookmakers recently. Exchanges supposed advantage seems exaggerated to me. Taking a look at Oddschecker for bookmakers best early prices in the morning; it is not that different to exchanges when commission is taken in to account. On course bets on maidens have kept me afloat this flat season. That market is not as competitive as exchanges, but you do have an advantage of seeing the horses on course. 11/ Do you bet on other sports as well as racing, if so which do you think brings you the most profit? Was a regular backer on Formula 1, back in the Schumacher, Hill, Hakkinen era. Before betfair took off there was a wide variation in bookies prices. Remember one rain effected race, Schumacher was well back on the grid, 9/4 with one firm yet 8/1 with another. When do you get those odds with horses? :eek Unfortunately it's changed now. Had a couple of bets on Cricket (one, England won at 2/1). Started betting on football one World Cup. Despite having Suker win the Golden Boot at 33/1, managed to make a loss on the tournament. Nowadays only if something really stood out will I bet on other sports as I don't really know enough about them. 12/ We know you are a “Timeform” man, do you use any other aids to assist your betting? Yes, I am a Timeform addict. Use the sportinglife website for declarations and trainers in form. Clicking on trainer's names for their recent record; to give them a rating from 1 to 10. I find most races are won by trainers in form. Get the odd Racing Post on big days and when going racing. It's still far better value than a race card. Use their website occasionally but nothing that needs payment. Looking up a horse's career or breeding, but prefer my library of Timeform annuals for that. 13/ I believe you are a member of a Racing Club, can you tell us about it and what events they set up? West Berkshire Racing Club (WBRC). Only really got involved because Goodwood had an offer on; waving their newcomers joining fee (£60) for any WBRC member. As the WBRC membership is just £12 it was a no-brainer. Glad I joined though. It's a bunch of racing enthusiasts who get together once or twice a month. Sometimes for talks by racing personalities at Newbury Racecourse, race / meeting previews (we put on the Cheltenham Preview (open to all) at Newbury), racing quiz, stud and stable visits. Sometimes we make our own way to the destination, sometimes by coach from Newbury (costs more). Had a visit to Shadwell Stud, included having the stallions out to parade for us. Paul Nicholls visit, where an assistant trainer showed us around the stables, being told a little about each horse. One evening we had a talk and questions and answers which included BHA spokesman Paul Struthers. 14/ Have you been to visit any stables this year? As numbers are limited, did not go on many stable visits this year, let others have their turn. Went to Emma Lavelle and Roger Charlton. Pessimist in the league of Tim Forster. He did have a good word to say about Genki for the Wokingham, finished last. Kept faith which paid off in the Stewards Cup. :cow Lambourn Open Day was a fun day as always, but can't say it paid off financially. 15/ Do you have any horses for us to watch out for this NH season? Both first and second in the Henry VIII, Somersby and Crack Away Jack should take very high rank. Henderson's Riverside Theatre is another in the 2m novice chase division (jumped superbly). Emma's other good novice chaser Kangaroo Court could win a decent prize (Jewson?). Don't give up on Bensalem, once his trainer is in better form and steps up to 3 miles plus, will leave current form behind. Punchestowns is a worthy favourite for the RSA though. The Champion Hurdle market is a mess. I've backed both Binocular (unfortunately) :( and Solwhit. Go native has so much pace, is suited by a sharp track or slowly run race, whether he'll show it at Cheltenham is open to question. Starluck ditto, the opposite may be the case with Zaynar. Big Buck's won't get beat in the Stayers, now expect him to start 1\2 on the day. Hopefully Ruby will push him out in the Long Walk. Want him to know what to do come March, not win on the bridle. Willie Amos's Lie Forrit might be an each way or betting without alternative. Idles badly when in front and is considerably better than he's shown. Backed Cooldine for the Gold Cup, was thinking the Nicholls duo might not come back, dohhh! Wish I hadn't now. :$ Hello bud and Niche Market are my two (so far) for the Grand National. Explanations elsewhere. On 16th Dec at Newbury, Carruthers half brother, novice hurdler Cuckoo Penn ran really well for a long way. Mark Bradstock's horses usually need a run or two to get fit, first start for 5 months. 20/1, clear for a long way and weakened late for 6th. May be the type to show improvement at a lesser level given time. 16/ Do you think horse racing is “clean” at the moment and does this effect the way you bet? Wherever money is involved there is some fraud. We all know some skulduggery goes on, but I believe this is exaggerated, certainly less than used to be the case. Paper trails are easier to follow now. Some punters want to believe the game is bent, because then it is not their own fault for backing losers. The stuff that does go on is usually in poor quality races. Prize money being so low, some connections feel it necessary to plot a coup or stop a horse for financial gain. I don't bet in lower grades so it does not effect me greatly. There are probably more non-triers in the world of football, snooker, cricket and darts than in racing. Some trainers do not have their two year olds 100% fit or ready first time up. These are not non-triers as they are still trying to win if good enough. Knowing trainers who's strike rate goes up from say 4% to 25% second time out, helps in that respect. 17/ Do you have many ante-post bets and do you look to trade them? Love ante-post, think there are more “ricks” in that type of bet than any other. But only bet on the very top races / handicaps. Even the best weekend handicap or group race often have runners come out, to aim at something else. Usually stick to The National, Cheltenham, King George, Classics, Royal Ascot, The best Group 1's, Ebor, Ces and Cambridgeshire. It is getting harder though, with Coolmoore dominating and not knowing which race a horse is going for at Cheltenham (more options for connections these days). Usually let ante-post bets ride, only really if it's got to a price I think overstates it's chance do I trade out. 18/ As far as betting is concerned, where do you see yourself in five years from now? Don't tend to look as far forward as five years. May be as a “proper” pro gambler, making enough to live on without the need to dip in to savings. May be a job doing Spotlights or a Pricewise (I wish) :hope type of thing could be an alternative. Of course a return to my old job is another possibility if I am not good enough. :( 19/ Do you invest in the Jackpot or Scoop 6 bets? Never do miracle bets like Scoop 6 or Jackpot, don't even get involved in doubles. Imagine this scenario: Two blokes Ben and Brian go in to a bookies, Ben puts a £10 double on. The 10/1 shot wins so he has it going on a 5/1 chance which loses. His mates commiserate “hard luck Ben at least you only lost a tenner”. Brian also had £10 on at 10/1 in a single and then stakes the lot on the 5/1 chance. He hears some muttering in the corner “f...... idiot, fancy putting the whole lot on it, should have kept some at least”. The two bets are practically identical, yet are treated by punters quite differently. Now multiply it for a Jackpot or Scoop 6. It's just the way I see it, others will see things differently. 20/ I see that you enter the Tote Ten To Follow, have you had any success and are you part of a syndicate? Had some success in the Tote Ten To Follow competition. We won the £10,000 York one a few years ago. Trouble is 33 other lists did as well. So our syndicate of three won £294 between us. Got a nice letter from the Racing Post. Three point scorers were Septimus, Authorised and Dylan Thomas. Been doing the competition since way back in the eighties when part of the Pacemaker magazine. Would've won the June one if Hanami (7th) had won Casual Look's Oaks. Been quite close in the main competition too. The year Monsun won a lot of German races, Sackville won a lot of Irish novices, Nashwan, Kings Theatre, Mighty Man and Nayef. Led the Royal Ascot one with Haradersun, Henrythenavigator, Raven's Pass etc. Started well in the jumps one this season, up to 17th before the Tingle Creek (now 261st). In a syndicate of two over jumps, entering between 12 and 15 lists. Suppose it is my Scoop 6 or Jackpot bet. Quick Questions 1/ What is your homepage at the moment? Google is my homepage (boring I know). 2/ Name a site on your favourites that may surprise us? Mini2. 3/ Favourite Music, song, band? Well, I was a great fan of radio 1 DJ John Peel so: Punk, Reggae, Two Tone, Ska, Soca, Jit, Poetry (not rap), Brit Pop, Indie Anthems, Old Jazz. Sex Pistols, Undertones, Stiff Little Fingers, Bob Marley, Madness, Specials, Prince Buster, Arrow, Gypsy, Bhundu Boys, Billy Bragg, Attila The Stockbroker, Joy Division, Jesus And Mary Chain, Smiths, Wedding Present, Half Man Half Biscuit, The Fall, Pulp, Lily Allen, Duffy, Louis Armstrong, Nat King Cole. 4/ Favourite TV show, not sport related? Not overly political, but do like Question Time. Also documentaries, wildlife and situation comedy, The Good Life, Only Fools etc. Don't mind soaps, hate X Factor and “reality”. 5/ What was the last book you read? :lol If you don't count a book the Jehovah's Witnesses gave me about Creationism (propaganda); last book I read was Timeform Chasers & Hurdlers (my Bible). If you have a love of horse racing then this (and / or the flat issue Timeform Racehorses) is a must. Just gets you looking forward to next season. They are £70 each but good value if you can possibly afford it. Before that Dave Nevison's “A Bloody Good Winner”, which I was a little disappointed in, learnt nothing. 6/ What do you do for a living? Very part time carpet fitter (all above board), now a non tax payer. Work for my father who is himself semi-retired. Always been lucky that I can take time off to go racing when I like; although because of that (when full time) have not taken many holidays over the years. 7/ What car do you drive, or would like to one day? Never been one for cars. If you had asked me two weeks ago it would've been a 13 year old 1.4 Corsa Montana. Was going to run it in to the ground, but with the Scrappage Scheme and less VAT could not afford to miss the opportunity. Week before getting the new vehicle the exhaust started to go, so it was time. Now have a Mini First. Not been in it much yet, roads around me don't get gritted and with ice am not used to the strong brakes yet! 8/ Do you have any hobbies away from sport? Like walking and British nature (flora and fauna). Am very lucky the things I like doing cost very little to enjoy. 9/ What was the last race meeting you attended? Tattersalls member at Newbury and will be there on Dec 29th. Full member at Goodwood and go to most Salisbury meetings. One or two non-festival Cheltenham meetings. Used to go racing about twice a week, but far less now I have RUK and ATR. Was a regular at both Fontwell and Wincanton, but I don't think their entrance fees are value any more. If you visit Salisbury go in Tatts and up the steps to the top of the stand. One of the best views in racing, unlike in members which is too straight on. Might start going to Ascot again as heard their fees are better now, especially with Racegoers Club discount. Anyone who goes racing more than 5 times a year (without membership) should consider becoming a member of the Racegoers Club (£20). With £3 to £5 off the vast majority of meetings. 10/ What was the last live sporting event you attended outside horse racing? I don't go to any non-racing sporting events, not even Thruxton motor racing which is within hearing distance on a windy day. 11/ What gadgets do you own, ipod, mobile, xbox etc? Gadgets don't interest me, do have a dongle and mobile which I only use in emergencies. 12/ Biggest personal achievement so far? Proud of being a member of a victorious four member team in the West Berks Racing Club quiz. :dude Pitting our wits against the likes of Mike Cattermole, Tanya Stevenson, Geof Lester, Craig Thaike, Steve Dennis, Graham Dench, Lee Motershead, the guys from Raceform, Wetherbys, various trainers and stud teams etc. Trying again on 26th January. Would be great if PL could get a team together and take us on!? 13/ Ambitions for the future? Just the normal, to be happy, healthy and more successful in my betting; in that order. Any Other Comments? If something needs to be said I'll say it. e.g. If someone is thinking of “turning pro” and I don't believe he has the knowledge to do so successfully. I will say so, for their benefit as much as anything. If I disagree with someone's point of view will say so, as I expect them to do so with me. As long as we are friendly things will be fine, any discussion or disagreement is immediately forgotten about when we go on to the next topic. :ok .