Monday NBA Exposed!

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Well the week ended on a sour note yesterday and I spent most of the evening doing follow up research: Week One: 12-8 (60%) :clap Week Two 15-24 (39%) :banghead This Week: 0-0 Last note on yesterday: The halftime line between UNC/NC St had the NC St favored by 6.5 which is more than the original line bringing that halftime lesson to 6-0 in the L6 and now hitting at over 70% on the year, so may want to keep an eye out for that. I am going to break down the NBA game by game tonight and post the information and other finidngs in here! Back with game one in a minute. CB

[Guest Carmine Bellini]

Re: Monday NBA Exposed! Breakdown Orlando @ Boston The Celtics come into this game without rest after winning in Toronto, while the Magic have rest after a rare road win in Atlanta. A note here has to be taken when you look at the Magic tonight because T Mac left the game against Atlanta in the third with knee problems but did return in the fourth to finish the game with over 30 points for the third game straight. As mentioned earlier the first thing you may want to look at in this game is the schedule as the Celtics are playing back to back and the Magic are rested. This is important because the Celtics are just 4-16 SU & ATS in this role, but they are at home and have revenge. Looking closer at that meetings in the past you will see the Celtics are an amazing 10-1 ATS the last 11 against the Magic at home, but the revenge factor may surprise you. The Celtics are a woeful 18-25 ATS at home when facing a team looking for revenge and when they are at home the number gets worse not better, at 3-10 ATS. The Magic are actually quite good at holding serve when facing a team looking for revenge. The Magic are 10-3 ATS when facing a team they beat in the past meeting and they have done well with this in the long term as they are 52-43 ATS at home when they are playing a team they beat in the last meeting. Also although the Celtics have taken 2 in a row they are still just 1-4 ATS in the last five at home, while the Magic are playing much better at 4-2 ATS in the last six overall. in fact the Magic have renewed confidence. The Magic are fueled by the recent trade. The trades: DeShawn Stevenson arrived from Utah for Gordan Giricek. Veteran Sean Rooks came from New Orleans for Shammond Williams. "It doesn't sound like you're making huge deals, but they've made a difference," Magic Coach Johnny Davis said. "They've energized us. They did not have a frame of reference to all the things we've been through." Basketball teams rely on so few players that the slightest tweaks can change chemistry on the floor and off. While Rooks has made the locker room a happier place -- Williams was upset with his playing time. Stevenson has changed the way the Magic play with his athleticism. He can play a number of positions, creating competition and renewed interest in job security. "I don't have to create as much as I did before the trade," McGrady said, "DeShawn can create his own shot." They are also doing much better when Mcgrady is not on the floor something that is key when you are looking to win. This allows Mcgrady to rest and the to come back rested late. The Magic basically beat the Denver Nuggets and Detroit Pistons without getting much from T-Mac. They then held off the Atlanta Hawks in the fourth quarter Saturday night. Tyronn Lue and Drew Gooden scored 16 of their 28 points. Said Lue: "That's the thing Michael Jordan was always saying when I played with him [in Washington]: For your team to really develop confidence, you have to play without your star player, whether he's out or struggling." Down by one point to the Hawks in the second quarter, McGrady left to rest -- and watched the Magic run off 10 unanswered points. "I've been pretty fresh down the stretch of games," McGrady said. A quick look at the total you would think the over is the way to go in a game between two teams that play little to know defense and are full of featured scorers. I can't disagree as taking these two teams will result in scoring and could keep it close down the stretch. A look at the trends will tell you something else however. Boston has two reason to take a solid look at the under tonight in this game. They have been playing great defense and the under has come in 5 out of the last 6 games (keeping in mind two of these game were against offense challenged Toronto) and they shot five percentage points better than the average last game setting them up for a sub par or average performance tonight. A quick look at how these two teams fare when they are playing a game when the total is at 200 will show you similar thoughts. the celtics have the under at 21-8 when they are playing with a total of 200 or higher (10-2 @ home) and the Magic have the under at 30-17 when in the same situation. remember the revenge trends I went over? more reason to take a look at the under tonight in this one. The celtics have the under at 28-15 when they play a team that beat them in the previous meeting and the magic have it at 18-6. Finally the celtics have some stronger under numbers here as well. The under is 14-5 after a win when they had fewer than ten offensive boards and a perfect 7-0 after a game when they had more turnovers than assists. Carmine