Another Losing run

[AJ]

Have been playing Double or Nothings for a long time. Average 59% win rate. Grinding along no problems. But, now i've lost 18 in a row. :eyes Don't think my game has changed or I'm doing much wrong. Been utterly card dead and on the occassions I get cards, something like below happens. This is just variance right ?

PokerStars Game #36530838949: Tournament #220767527, $5.00+$0.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level II (15/30) - 2009/12/11 1:31:21 ET Table '220767527 1' 10-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: barred56 (1420 in chips) Seat 2: mac972 (1490 in chips) Seat 3: Mirondumel (1590 in chips) Seat 4: cnelkurtz (1470 in chips) Seat 5: Chauliodus (1750 in chips) Seat 6: Sippintime (1470 in chips) Seat 7: cooper1019 (1160 in chips) Seat 8: asjohnstone (1810 in chips) Seat 9: M0F025 (1400 in chips) Seat 10: ickley (1440 in chips) cooper1019: posts small blind 15 asjohnstone: posts big blind 30 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to asjohnstone [Ah As] M0F025: calls 30 ickley: raises 60 to 90 barred56: folds mac972: folds Mirondumel: folds cnelkurtz: folds Chauliodus: raises 120 to 210 Sippintime: folds cooper1019: folds asjohnstone: raises 1600 to 1810 and is all-in M0F025: folds ickley: calls 1350 and is all-in Chauliodus: calls 1540 and is all-in Uncalled bet (60) returned to asjohnstone *** FLOP *** [Jh Ts 8c] *** TURN *** [Jh Ts 8c] [3h] *** RIVER *** [Jh Ts 8c 3h] [3c] *** SHOW DOWN *** asjohnstone: shows [Ah As] (two pair, Aces and Threes) Chauliodus: shows [Js Jc] (a full house, Jacks full of Threes) Chauliodus collected 620 from side pot ickley: shows [Ac Ad] (two pair, Aces and Threes) Chauliodus collected 4365 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot 4985 Main pot 4365. Side pot 620. | Rake 0 Board [Jh Ts 8c 3h 3c] Seat 1: barred56 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: mac972 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: Mirondumel folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: cnelkurtz folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: Chauliodus showed [Js Jc] and won (4985) with a full house, Jacks full of Threes Seat 6: Sippintime (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: cooper1019 (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 8: asjohnstone (big blind) showed [Ah As] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes Seat 9: M0F025 folded before Flop Seat 10: ickley showed [Ac Ad] and lost with two pair, Aces and Threes

[AJ]

Re: Another Losing run After posting this I win my next game.:loon

[averick]

Re: Another Losing run Congrats:clap That was definitely variance and I'm sure you know that too:), although I'm not too familiar with DoN dynamics so the more experienced players might have something to say about that. Anyway, being up another 2 pairs of aces (instead of one) only improved his chances of winning by around 2%.

[goater14]

Re: Another Losing run

After posting this I win my next game.:loon

works every time;).

[GaF]

Re: Another Losing run

Average 59% win rate. ... But, now i've lost 18 in a row. :eyes Don't think my game has changed or I'm doing much wrong. ... This is just variance right ?

I'm not sure I agree :unsure If we accept that you're a winning player with a 59% strike rate (and I've no reason to doubt it), then the odds of... - Losing 1 game are 41% - Losing 2 consecutive games are 16.8% - Losing 3 consecutive games are 6.9% - losing 5 consecutive games are 1.16% - losing 8 consecutive games are 0.08% (1 in 1,252) - losing 12 consecutive games are 0.002% (1 in 44,319) - losing 15 consecutive games are 0.00015% (1 in 643,046) - losing 18 consecutive games are 0.00001% (1 in 9,330,192) If nothing else has changed, then the odds of a streak of 18 consecutive losses are 1 in 9.3m!! You're more likely to win the jackpot in the UK lottery! Of course, that's for each occurence - you test this streak many times each day - so the odds of it happening in reality are significantly less that that - however I doubt that your volume of play is large enough to bring this down to the realms of particularly likely. I find it far more probable that a small, imperceptible change has occured either in your game or in your game environment

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Another Losing run

You're more likely to win the jackpot in the UK lottery!

Odds of winning the lottery are actually 1 in 13,983,816

[GaF]

Re: Another Losing run lol - of course they are :wall :wall :wall :$

[glceud]

Re: Another Losing run

I'm not sure I agree :unsure If we accept that you're a winning player with a 59% strike rate (and I've no reason to doubt it), then the odds of... - Losing 1 game are 41% - Losing 2 consecutive games are 16.8% - Losing 3 consecutive games are 6.9% - losing 5 consecutive games are 1.16% - losing 8 consecutive games are 0.08% (1 in 1,252) - losing 12 consecutive games are 0.002% (1 in 44,319) - losing 15 consecutive games are 0.00015% (1 in 643,046) - losing 18 consecutive games are 0.00001% (1 in 9,330,192) If nothing else has changed, then the odds of a streak of 18 consecutive losses are 1 in 9.3m!! You're more likely to win the jackpot in the UK lottery! Of course, that's for each occurence - you test this streak many times each day - so the odds of it happening in reality are significantly less that that - however I doubt that your volume of play is large enough to bring this down to the realms of particularly likely. I find it far more probable that a small, imperceptible change has occured either in your game or in your game environment

Oi! just cos I posted your thoughts before you on another thread. I was trying to work out the odds earlier but kept losing track of how many times I'd added on the losing %.

[GaF]

Re: Another Losing run

but kept losing track of how many times I'd added on the losing %.

Not sure how you were trying to do it - but if only you'd embrace technology instead :tongue2 Excel gives the answer if you put in: =0.41^18