KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Chelt Sat 12th Dec - Winner Poquelin

[bowles10]

Saturdays big race 45 initial decs will be whittled down to possibly 16 max? Might see some of the Paddy Power field reassemble here with Tranquil Sea & Chapoturgeon possibly lining up Forecast is a few days of rain, then windy/colder later in the week

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

no race 1981 [3]
1982	Observe	6	10-11	John Francome	Fred Winter
1983	Fifty Dollars More	8	11-10	Richard Linley	Fred Winter
1984	Beau Ranger	6	09-10	John Hurst	John Thorne
1985	Combs Ditch	9	11-09	Colin Brown	David Elsworth
1986	Oregon Trail	6	10-07	Ronnie Beggan	Simon Christian
1987	Bishops Yarn	8	10-07	Richard Guest	Toby Balding
1988	Pegwell Bay	7	10-13	Brendan Powell	Tim Forster
1989	Clever Folly	9	10-04	Neale Doughty	Gordon W. Richards
1990	no race 1990 [3]
1991	Kings Fountain	8	11-10	Anthony Tory	Kim Bailey
1992	Another Coral	9	11-04	Richard Dunwoody	David Nicholson
1993	Fragrant Dawn	9	10-02	Declan Murphy	Martin Pipe
1994	Dublin Flyer	8	10-02	Brendan Powell	Tim Forster
1995	no race 1995 [4]
1996	Addington Boy	8	11-10	Tony Dobbin	Gordon W. Richards
1997	Senor El Betrutti	8	11-03	Graham Bradley	Susan Nock
1998	Northern Starlight	7	10-01	Tony McCoy	Martin Pipe
1999	Legal Right	6	10-13	Richard Johnson	Jonjo O'Neill
2000	Go Roger Go	8	11-00	Norman Williamson	Edward O'Grady
2001	no race 2001 [4]
2002	Fondmort	6	10-05	Mick Fitzgerald	Nicky Henderson
2003	Iris Royal [5]	7	10-13	Mick Fitzgerald	Nicky Henderson
2004	Monkerhostin	7	10-02	Richard Johnson	Philip Hobbs
2005	Sir Oj	8	10-00	Paul Carberry	Noel Meade
2006	Exotic Dancer	6	11-04	Tony Dobbin	Jonjo O'Neill
2007	Tamarinbleu	7	11-08	Denis O'Regan	David Pipe
2008	no race 2008 [6]

[bowles10]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec 6 to 8 yo's look good then JTW!!!

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

6 to 8 yo's look good then JTW!!!

They certainly do mate :ok PIPE MULLS OVER BOYLESPORTS PLANS By Ashley Iveson, Press Association Sport David Pipe is in no rush to make any definite running plans for Saturday's Boylesports.com Gold Cup at Cheltenham after leaving three horses in the valuable handicap chase at the confirmation stage. The Pond House handler could be represented by Sunday's Warwick winner Our Vic, who would have to carry joint top-weight with Gwanako, as well as Charlie Hall Chase runner-up Tamarinbleu and Friday's Sandown winner Seven Is My Number. "Our Vic has come out of Sunday's win at Warwick very well and he escapes a penalty for the Boylesports.com Gold Cup," said Pipe. "He could go for Saturday's race, or else we are toying with running him in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day. We will make up our minds later this week. "Tamarinbleu ran a great race at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall Chase on his reappearance and he is going to go to either Cheltenham or the Peterborough Chase. "We will study the five-day confirmations and speak to the owners before coming to a decision. "It was a good performance from Seven Is My Number to win at Sandown but I'm not sure how much you can take out of the race. "Timmy (Murphy) said that it didn't ride like a great race and Seven Is My Number has gone up 9lb for the win. "We have left him in at the five-day stage and again we will mull over whether to run him in the next few days. "He was visually impressive at Sandown and it would be great if the form did work out." Gwanako is one of three contenders for champion trainer Paul Nicholls along with Chapoturgeon and Poquelin. "Chapoturgeon will definitely run as he will not mind the ground. The same goes for Gwanako as he doesn't mind soft going either," said the Ditcheat handler. "Poquelin is much more ground dependent - he would not want it too soft and we will see what conditions bring up. "If Poquelin runs, then Ruby Walsh will ride him. If not, then he will partner Gwanako and I expect that Timmy Murphy will be on board Chapoturgeon." Nicky Richards could saddle the talented Skippers Brig, who would run under a 5lb penalty following a recent success at Ayr. "We've just confirmed him this morning so we'll see how much rain they get down there and see how the horse is," said the Greystoke handler. "He seems very well this morning and has never left a scrap of food since he ran. He seems to have taken the race very well. "I'm more than tempted to let him take his chance as he's fresh and well and I do think he's a very talented horse. "He's certainly a fine horse to have around and we might find out a bit more about him this weekend." Edward O'Grady has taken out Paddy Power Gold Cup hero Tranquil Sea as expected, but the Irish handler could still be represented having left in Sky's The Limit. Irish champion trainer Willie Mullins has Scotsirish, Jayo and Pomme Tiepy, while Razor Royale, Hold Em and Au Courant are other interesting contenders.

[fintron]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Razor Royale interests me for this after winning at the track in such impressive fashion last time out. Nigel Twiston-Davies' seven year old was making only his second start of the season and his second run in chase handicaps and sauntered clear by 23-lengths - a margin of victory that wasn't flattering in the slightest. The handicapper has reacted by upping him 11 lbs but this horse that was closely matched with Nenuphar Collonges over hurdles still looks like he could have a bit more improvement to come in this sphere. He drops back in trip but has the pace to win over 2m 5f. 10/1 Blue Sq, 0.25 pt EW.

[Spooner]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec I've taken 8/1 about Chapoturgeon for this one, fell LTO in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but looked primed for a good run that day and obviously is full of ability, hopefully bounce back.

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

No.		Form	Horse	Age	Wt	Trainer	Jockey	OR	NagMe	Bet
1		U125F-U	Gwanako (FR) 21	6	11-12	P F Nicholls	Harry Skelton (3)	155		SP SP 14/1
2		1/PP4-61	Our Vic (IRE) (ex5) 6	11	11-12 b	D Pipe	Danny Cook (3)	155		SP SP 20/1
3		3/2837-2	Tamarinbleu (FR) 42	9	11-10 b	D Pipe	T Scudamore	153		SP SP 10/1
4		211F2-F	Chapoturgeon (FR) 28	5	11-10	P F Nicholls	T J Murphy	153		SP SP 11/2
5		1387-12	Poquelin (FR) 28	6	11-8	P F Nicholls	R Walsh	151		SP SP 11/2
6		1P04PF-	Stan (NZ) 252	10	11-5	Tim Vaughan		148		SP SP 20/1
7		1F/2F21-	Atouchbetweenacara (IRE) 241	8	11-5	Tim Vaughan	B J Geraghty	148		SP SP 5/1
8		180P-3P	Knowhere (IRE) 28	11	11-3	N A Twiston-Davies	N Fehily	146		SP SP 33/1
9		86FF-1F	Bible Lord (IRE) 20	8	11-0	Andrew Turnell	Edward Cookson (7)	143		SP SP 25/1
10		44/30-P4	Sky's The Limit (FR) 10	8	10-13 v	E J O'Grady	A J Mcnamara	142		SP SP SP
11		1145-15	Jayo (FR) 199	6	10-12	W P Mullins		141		SP SP 20/1
12		F313-91	Razor Royale (IRE) 29	7	10-11	N A Twiston-Davies	P J Brennan	140		SP SP 10/1
13		5020-11	Mount Oscar (IRE) 14	10	10-11 t	C L Tizzard	J Tizzard	140		SP SP 14/1
14		1141-31	Skippers Brig (IRE) (ex5) 10	8	10-11	N G Richards	B Harding	140		SP SP 12/1
15		231/21-3	From Dawn To Dusk 77	10	10-7 t	P J Hobbs	R Flint (3)	136		SP SP 16/1
16		1341P7/	Idole First (IRE) 728	10	10-7	Miss V Williams	A Coleman	136		SP SP 33/1
17		6P9353	Hold Em (IRE) 28	7	10-5 pt	W K Goldsworthy	R Thornton	134		SP SP 12/1
18		5F-262U	The Sawyer (BEL) 20	9	10-5	R H Buckler		134		SP SP 25/1
19		2162-52	Saphir Des Bois (FR) 21	5	10-3	Jonjo O'Neill		132		SP SP 16/1

Betting Forecast: 5/1 Atouchbetweenacara (IRE), 11/2 Poquelin (FR), 6/1 Chapoturgeon (FR), 10/1 Tamarinbleu (FR), 10/1 Razor Royale (IRE), 12/1 Sky's The Limit (FR), 12/1 Skippers Brig (IRE), 12/1 Hold Em (IRE), 14/1 Mount Oscar (IRE), 16/1 Gwanako (FR), 16/1 Our Vic (IRE), 16/1 From Dawn To Dusk, 20/1 Jayo (FR), 25/1 Stan (NZ), 25/1 Bible Lord (IRE), 25/1 Idole First (IRE), 25/1 The Sawyer (BEL), 25/1 Saphir Des Bois (FR), 33/1 Knowhere (IRE)

[mileni4uk]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Knowhere e/w @ 50/1 Nibbled at big prices for the Paddy Power just before the off. Went off at 20/1 being 40/1 the night before the race. Two bad jumps at the first two fences sealed his fate there. He was never really in touch after going virtually from first to last after those two jumps. I am willing to give him another chance though, especially being 8lbs lower in the weights and ridden by the exellent Noel Fehly tomorrow. I just can't accept he has the worst chance in the race to be fair. I can point at least 5,6, who should be bigger than him and the 50s is great value imo.

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Ok lets apply a few Trends this week . 1- AGE , with NO winners aged 10 or over it's sensible imo to eliminate OUR VIC , STAN , KNOWHERE , MOUNT OSCAR , FROMDAWNTODUSK and IDOLE FIRST . Also there have been no 9y-o wins since '93 so i have to put a question mark against TAMARINBEAU , 2 - WEIGHT , The last time any horse carried 11:10 or more was back in '96 so bye bye GWANAKO . 3- Fate of the FAV - No Fav has won since '96 although the vast majority of winners came from the top 5/6 in the market. Looking at whats left BIBLE LORD @ 40/1 can be left out esp as the stable is in such poor form . TAMARINBEAU has question marks for me about staying 20f on Soft going + no horse has followed up since '82 at least . CHAPOTURGEON has now failed to complete in 3 of his 7 outings over fences but when he does he's either been 1st or 2nd !! Still thats too much of a negative for me . Before the PADDY POWER it was assumed that POQUELIN favoured at least Good going but that run on Soft may have put that one to rest . Although Nicholl's has had 7 runners from 15 in the last 9 seasons place he has not won this race . The form of that race is working out well with BALLYFITZ and OUR VIC winning and TARTAK finishing 2nd to DEEP PURPLE since then . ATOUCHBETWEENACARA seems to be well-regarded but has two F's from 6 Chase runs to his record and , like CHAPOTURGEON , that puts me off his chance . SKY'S THE LIMIT would be capable on his best form but he has not seen the winners enclosure since Dec '07. Ran well last time when btn 3l behind SIZING EUROPE but imo would prefer the ground even softer than it is . JAYO is probably a grade below winning this and he would love it Heavy . Tends to clout one or two but if putting in a clear round might well be worth an EW bet . The Irish have a 2 winners from the last 7 runnings . RAZOR ROYALE has won over C/D and won't be bothered by the going but he only won at Cl 2 grade and this is a step back in distance for him after winning over 25f quite easily last time out . SKIPPERS BRIG is the sole Nothern raider and 2 points sum up his chance ,imo, 1 - 6 of his 7 career wins have been on HEAVY ground which it will not be tomorrow 2 - His one run at Cheltenham ended in a 40l beating . HOLD EM ran another good race at the track when 2l behind POQUELIN in the PP . His record at Cheltenham is 2nd [G2 race] , unp [G1] , 3rd [G3] , PU [G1] , 3rd [Cl2] , 3rd [G3] . The going doesn't seem to affect him . The 2nd and 3rd in the Paddy Power are my 2 selections for this Grade 3 Handicap . POQUELIN will hopefully show that his 2nd there was not a fluke on the Soft going and wherever he finishes the HOLD EM shouldn't be too far behind , if not just in front !! . 10pt win - POQUELIN @ 6/1 [Hills ] 5pt EW - HOLD EM @ 12/1

[bowles10]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec 2.25 Boylesports Gold cup Key trends over 10 years Age 6-8 - 10/10 Weight 11st 4lb or under - 9/10 (tamarinBleu ruined this trend in 2007 carrying 11st 8lb) Weight under 11st - 6/10 SP 9/1 or under - 8/10 Highest SP 22/1 (again in 2007 !! previous was 16/1) Irish winners 2/10 Favs 0/10 1-3 outings that season - 10/10 Course form - 10/10 Course winners - 5/10 Competed in 6 chases or more - 10/10 Won a graded chase 6/10 In 1st 3 LTO - 9/10 So, Favourites have a shocking record 0/10, some key stats to consider here : 1-3 outings & Age 6-8 - Gwanako, Poquelin, Bible Lord, Skys the limit, Jayo, Razor Royale, Skippers brig, Next cut off is course form - Take out Jayo (1 run 8th), Skippers Brig (1 run 12th) Next cut off 11st 4lb or under - Take out Gwanako & Poquelin. Next cut off 1st 3 LTO - Take out bible lord & Skys the limit, Jayo This leaves the one at the lower end of the handicap Razor Royale who won lTO has course form - 8 runs here 21447F31 I would like to have 2 horses running for me & think Skys The limit could run a big race. Has 1 win from 1 run here when winning the Coral cup here at the festival a few years ago Bets Razor Royale 10/1 >Bet365 (bog) Skys the limit 9/1 >Paddy Power (gp) 10pts win on both

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec I make three horses value. Can't understand why Skippers Brigg is 12/1. To me he should be first or second fav. I make him a 13/2 shot, seldom is a horse that much value, GET ON!!! Backed Tamarinbleu to win this a couple of years ago when he won at 33/1. Now 10/1, Close second in the Charlie Hall, winner won the Peterborough earlier in the week. I make him a true 7/1 shot. Mount Oscar won well at Newbury, winner and second clear. Improved in to the sort of horse he looked capable of being as a novice hurdler. Stable not in such good form as last time out, but can't have everything at 25/1, my price is 15/1. Idole First I make marginal value too at around 33/1 but will leave him out. My prices to 100% are: Skippers Brigg 13/2, Poquelin 13/2, Atouchbetweenacara 7/1, Tamarinbleu 7/1, Chapoturgeon 11/1, Mount Oscar 15/1, Hold Em 16/1, Jayo 20/1, Sky's The Limit 20/1, Razor Royale 22/1, Idole First 28/1, From Dawn To Dusk 28/1, Our Vic 40/1, Gwanako 50/1, Stan 66/1, Bioble Lord 100/1, Knowhere 200/1.

[StuSimmy]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec 14:25 Cheltenham Tamarinbleu was last seen in the Charlie Hall chase on Halloween when he was beaten by Deep Purple by a head. Since then Deep Purple has followed up with a win which came in midweek in another big race - The Peterborough Chase, this came off a mark 159 (8lbs higher than the Charlie Hall Chase). Tamarinbleu won over course and distance at the 2007 when he won the Racing Post Plate. His course and distance win came off a mark just 3lbs lower than his mark today but he has also won off a mark 6lbs higher. This was his last win when he beat Twist Magic who has a very nice profile now with his most recent winning coming last weekend in the Tingle Creek chase off a mark of 167. Did disappoint last season after racking up a hat trick the season before but the fact he has made an excellent start to the season with that 2nd at Wetherby is positive and hopefully he will be back in the winners enclosure after this race. 1pt win Tamarinbleu @ 10/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[Aykay1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Agreed Stu :ok 225 Cheltenham - Tamarinbleu - 5pts ew @ 11/1 bluesq Following Deep Purples success in the Peterborough Chase, this one becomes of interest as he was only beatena head by Deep Purple last time. Winner of this race in 2007, Tamarinbleu gets in off a 3lb higher mark this time round. After a few races in which he was running respectably but getting outclassed somewhat, the run last time was an indication he could be ready to hit winning form again.

[punterpete]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Going 4 against the field here with win bets on Poquelin and Atouchbetweenacara and Razor Royal ew(11's taken) and Holdem ew or place only. Atouchbetweenacara One of the least exposed chasers in the field. Never looked that special over hurdles but took to fences straight away winning Handicap Novice chase at Bangor in March08. Finished 2nd twice and fell twice in next four outings leading to doubts about realiability and jumping ability. Seemed to have put those fears to rest when winning a grade 2 limited handicap at Cheltenham last time out when he jumped fluently and romped home by 24 L. Has moved from Venetia Williams to Tim Vaughn since that win and the Welsh trainer has been talking in glowing terms about his progress since joining the yard. Has been hiked up in the weights fot last win and faces much stiffer task today but does seem open to more improvement and the booking of the flying Barry Geraghty could be significant. Holdem Seems to always perform well around here and has solid place claims. Poquelin Ran a great race last time out and stormed up the hill to finish 2nd behind Tranquil Sea in the Paddy Power. If he cuts out the couple of mistakes he made that day could go 1 better here this afternoon. Razor Royale Won an Amatuer riders handicap chase here lto by 23 l. Has a lot to find here stepping up into class but does seem open to improvement.

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

I make three horses value. Can't understand why Skippers Brigg is 12/1. To me he should be first or second fav. I make him a 13/2 shot, seldom is a horse that much value, GET ON!!! Backed Tamarinbleu to win this a couple of years ago when he won at 33/1. Now 10/1, Close second in the Charlie Hall, winner won the Peterborough earlier in the week. I make him a true 7/1 shot. Mount Oscar won well at Newbury, winner and second clear. Improved in to the sort of horse he looked capable of being as a novice hurdler. Stable not in such good form as last time out, but can't have everything at 25/1, my price is 15/1. Idole First I make marginal value too at around 33/1 but will leave him out. My prices to 100% are: Skippers Brigg 13/2, Poquelin 13/2, Atouchbetweenacara 7/1, Tamarinbleu 7/1, Chapoturgeon 11/1, Mount Oscar 15/1, Hold Em 16/1, Jayo 20/1, Sky's The Limit 20/1, Razor Royale 22/1, Idole First 28/1, From Dawn To Dusk 28/1, Our Vic 40/1, Gwanako 50/1, Stan 66/1, Bioble Lord 100/1, Knowhere 200/1.

I'm curious as to how you make SKIPPERS BRIG a 13/2 shot Ginge ?? Looking at his form he has never won above Class 2 level at Northern tracks and has taken 30secs+ slower than standard time to complete those 7 wins . When tackling Graded class races he has been well beaten in both beaten a total of 63l !! If there was a mudbath at Cheltenham i'd partly agree with you but that would not appear to be the case today. 12/1 sounds about right to me . Please don't take this as a criticism , i'm purely interested in how you came to that opinion .

[bowles10]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

I'm curious as to how you make SKIPPERS BRIG a 13/2 shot Ginge ?? Looking at his form he has never won above Class 2 level at Northern tracks and has taken 30secs+ to complete those 7 wins . When tackling Graded class races he has been well beaten in both beaten a total of 63l !! If there was a mudbath at Cheltenham i'd partly agree with you but that would not appear to be the case today. 12/1 sounds about right to me . Please don't take this as a criticism , i'm purely interested in how you came to that opinion .

I am of the same opinion Ginge, the horse is unproven at the track, the 12/1 looks about right:ok

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec More detailed analysis: Poquelin finished really well in the Paddy Power. Did not travel or jump with as much fluency as usual there, only getting in to it late. If he can cut out the errors and travel better has a big chance, but will he and is there a temperament flaw? My 100% book price 13/2. Skippers Brigg is an improver, unexposed with a very good win / run ratio on soft or heavy going. Won three of his four races as a novice for Len Lungo. Only loss when losing all chance with a bad blunder 3 out, that also over 3m1f, one win was a Grade 2. Now with N. Richards; Very uneasy in the market on reappearance 8/1 from 9/2. That put him right for a win at Ayr off 135, only by 1 ¼ lengths but a long way clear (27 lengths) of the third. Runner up Etxalar was an easy winner the time before. Lightly raced and may be able to improve further for his new yard. Stable's record when coming south is a slight worry and those wins are not in as competitive races as this and the big field may test jumping more. However at 14/1 (WH) looks outstanding value. My price 13/2. Atouchbetweenacara won really well for Vennitia here last back end but has gone up a lot for that. Now with up and coming trainer Tim Vaughn. Has potential to improve but needs to. 8/1 may look value but unease in the market suggests he might just need this first run. 7/1 Tamarinbleu only carries 3lbs more than when successful in this a couple of years ago. Deep Purple winning the Peterborough franked the form of the Charlie Hall, Tamarinbleu runner up in that. Possibly best fresh, but has had a fair break. There are other prominent runners in the field to take him on. 11/1 seems a good enough price. 7/1 Chapoturgeon started his fencing career as a poor jumper, then jumped well for a short time, but has since jumped poorly. That seems to be the norm now. Is unexposed but has gone up a lot for his Jewson win. 11/1 Mount Oscar is improving fast for his new yard. Looked full of potential in his novice hurdle season and is now fulfilling it. Won well at Newbury, first two finished clear. Stable was in far better form then than it is now. Around 25/1 on betfair is worth a bet. 15/1 Hold Em is not the very best of jumpers but usually runs well at Cheltenham. Is more consistent over this trip than over all record suggests. Handicapper probably has a hold of him now. 16/1 Jayo was running well in the spring (last time) before losing all chance with a blunder. 20/1 Sky's The Limit ran well first time up over an inadequate trip, but runs well fresh. Not been the easiest to win with since a Festival win here a couple of years ago. 20/1 Razor Royale won an amateurs race here last time when the yard were flying, not quite so strong now. Seemed to thrive over 3 miles that day. Has not been the most consistent over the years. 22/1 From Dawn To Dusk's best form is on a sounder surface, has a chance on form if he acts on this but was a non-runner on similar ground in the Paddy Power. 28/1 Idole First has not run for a good while now but loves this place. Has been dropped to a winnable mark if in A1 condition. 40/1 looks big enough to take the chance. 28/1 Our Vic won a poor race last time, fair in the Paddy Power too. Well handicapped on his best form but looks on the downgrade. Often seems to down tools when taken on for the lead and there are other front runners in this field. 40/1 Gwanako does not seem at his best at the moment and is exposed even at his best. 50/1 Stan also looks exposed. Is inconsistent and sometimes needs a run or two to hit a peek. Now with Tim Vaughn. 66/1 Bible Lord has not been a good jumper in the past and a crashing fall at Aintree won't have helped. Has a squeak at his best but unlikely to be at that best. 100/1 Knowhere seems to have lost it, poor recent form, poor jumper, poor temperament, poor chance. 200/1 Backed Skippers Brigg (12/1), Tamarinbleu (10.5/1) and Mount Oscar (27/1) with a saver on Idole First (47/1) jtw and Bowles. No problem, did not take it as a criticism, everyone has their own way of looking at things. Other than the above analysis, to answer your points: Grade 2 novice chases are pretty good races so I don't see class as being an issue at the weights. Len Lungo had a little fish are sweet policy and did not over try his horses. How many times has Skippers Brigg run in Graded races on his ground? Winning times would be slow because they were on soft / heavy going, if that is what you meant jtw? Cheltenham would be a worry, particularly with his jumping, would also prefer a different jockey, but at around 12/1 can't have everything. I see both Dave Nevison and Steve Melish have now copied me.;)

[RuleBritannia]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Ginge!! Was that your e-mail read out on RUK?

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Yes RB it was. You noticed! Did not put my name to it. First time DN has agreed with me.:lol

[BillyHills]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec Well done JTW:ok

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

The 2nd and 3rd in the Paddy Power are my 2 selections for this Grade 3 Handicap . POQUELIN will hopefully show that his 2nd there was not a fluke on the Soft going and wherever he finishes the HOLD EM shouldn't be too far behind , if not just in front !! . 10pt win - POQUELIN @ 6/1 [Hills ] 5pt EW - HOLD EM @ 12/1

Cheers BH :ok and chuffed to have taken the 6's last night :dude. Disapointing run from HOLD EM .

[jtw1]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

More detailed analysis: Poquelin finished really well in the Paddy Power. Did not travel or jump with as much fluency as usual there, only getting in to it late. If he can cut out the errors and travel better has a big chance, but will he and is there a temperament flaw? My 100% book price 13/2. Skippers Brigg is an improver, unexposed with a very good win / run ratio on soft or heavy going. Won three of his four races as a novice for Len Lungo. Only loss when losing all chance with a bad blunder 3 out, that also over 3m1f, one win was a Grade 2. Now with N. Richards; Very uneasy in the market on reappearance 8/1 from 9/2. That put him right for a win at Ayr off 135, only by 1 ¼ lengths but a long way clear (27 lengths) of the third. Runner up Etxalar was an easy winner the time before. Lightly raced and may be able to improve further for his new yard. Stable's record when coming south is a slight worry and those wins are not in as competitive races as this and the big field may test jumping more. However at 14/1 (WH) looks outstanding value. My price 13/2. jtw and Bowles. No problem, did not take it as a criticism, everyone has their own way of looking at things. Other than the above analysis, to answer your points: Grade 2 novice chases are pretty good races so I don't see class as being an issue at the weights. Len Lungo had a little fish are sweet policy and did not over try his horses. How many times has Skippers Brigg run in Graded races on his ground? Winning times would be slow because they were on soft / heavy going, if that is what you meant jtw? Cheltenham would be a worry, particularly with his jumping, would also prefer a different jockey, but at around 12/1 can't have everything. I see both Dave Nevison and Steve Melish have now copied me.;)

Thanks for the reply Ginge , what i was trying to put across , though not very well , was imo SKIPPERS BRIG needed the ground to be a lot more testing to show his best . His winning times were very slow and having compared them to yesterdays winning times [ races where there were double fgure runners ] i doubted the ground would have been slow enough for him today . Yesterdays times ranged from 12.30 secs to 26.9 secs slower than standard . N Richard's yard have always had a 'little fish' policy esp when his old man ran the show , but 9 times out of 10 when tried at a higher level they were found out . Of course there were exceptions , ONE MAN for example , but they mostly failed to beat the best Southern horses when the time arose. After his very good run today there could well be a decent Handicap chase with his name on it PROVIDED the going is HEAVY at least imo. Thanks for your reply Ginge :ok, still think the 12's was about right myself though , but as you say the game's all about opinions .

[Gingertipster]

Re: KEY RACE: Boylesports Gold Cup 2m 5f Class 1 - Cheltenham Sat 12th Dec

Thanks for the reply Ginge ' date=' what i was trying to put across , though not very well , was imo [b']SKIPPERS BRIG needed the ground to be a lot more testing to show his best . His winning times were very slow and having compared them to yesterdays winning times [ races where there were double fgure runners ] i doubted the ground would have been slow enough for him today . Yesterdays times ranged from 12.30 secs to 26.9 secs slower than standard . N Richard's yard have always had a 'little fish' policy esp when his old man ran the show , but 9 times out of 10 when tried at a higher level they were found out . Of course there were exceptions , ONE MAN for example , but they mostly failed to beat the best Southern horses when the time arose. After his very good run today there could well be a decent Handicap chase with his name on it PROVIDED the going is HEAVY at least imo. Thanks for your reply Ginge :ok, still think the 12's was about right myself though , but as you say the game's all about opinions .

I don't think there is much doubt Skippers Brigg was at his best today (on soft), just not good enough. Yes, he does have a very good record on heavy, had it been a bog I'd have made him even shorter, around 9/2 (instead of 13/2). With Nicky Richards think the "poor" record coming south is over-played by the press. Races up north are less competitive, therefore it's obvious the strike rate will be less coming south. I thought 12/1 was excellant value on today's ground on a stiff course. He travelled very well, better than all bar the winner. So it wasn't as if he was outpaced on the soft going. He ran as well as I expected (rating-wise) just two improved further. The 12/1 did not last too long, well backed in to SP of 15/2 (a steamer). So many others came to the same opinion. Though I'd rather have bet on the steamer you backed jtw. :lol :ok