Wiltshire Shot Posted November 28, 2009 Share Posted November 28, 2009 Some might femember (but I'm sure most will have forgotten) that I frialled and failed with a system for finding anytime goalscorers earlier in the season. A few more weeks have gone now so the stats are better, and I've also refined things a bit more. To qualify, a player must have: *scored in at least half his home games (so proving he's a regular goalscorer) *his side must be favoured to win on Oddschecker (so he's playing for the better side) *the opposition must concede at least 1.5 goals/game for each away game (so there are likely to be home goals) *the odds must be evens or better (so that statistically at least the bookies have underpriced, or at least level priced, the player). I'm looking in England down to the BSP, and the top divisions in France, Italy, Germany, Spain and Holland, mainly because the stats are available and bookies I've got accounts with run anytime scorer markets. This is a 'real' system, but as it's an experiment I'm using very, very minimal stakes. This weekend throws up: Cole, West Ham, 5/4 Diamani, West Ham, 2/1 Abonglahor, Villa, 2/1 Maynard, Bristol City, 7/5 Buzsaky, QPR, 12/5 Simpson, QPR, 7/5 Bastos, Lyon, 15/8 Lopes, Lyon, 5/4 Goneis, Lyon, 7/5 Bunjak, Nurnburg, 2/1 Crespo, Genoa, 2/1 Pablo Hernandes, Valencia, 7/4 Diego da Silva Costa, Valladoid, 7/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glory6 Posted November 28, 2009 Share Posted November 28, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two I will be again with you in your new project! :dude Hopefully this time the results are bringing more long-term profit :notworthy My biggest interest will be to watch your stakes behaviour as this was the weak point in the last trial - from my point of view. Good luck!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted November 29, 2009 Author Share Posted November 29, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Cole, West Ham, 5/4 :clap Diamani, West Ham, 2/1 Void Abonglahor, Villa, 2/1 :clap Maynard, Bristol City, 7/5 :wall Buzsaky, QPR, 12/5 :clap Simpson, QPR, 7/5 :clap Bastos, Lyon, 15/8:wall Lopes, Lyon, 5/4:clap Goneis, Lyon, 7/5 void Bunjak, Nurnburg, 2/1 :wall Crespo, Genoa, 2/1 void Pablo Hernandes, Valencia, 7/4 :wall Diego da Silva Costa, Valladoid, 7/4 :clap That's: 10 bets, 6 came in, strike rate 60% Staked: 10 units, return 16.2 units Yield 62% A great start, but obviously much too soon to tell whether this is going to return a profit long-term. But, overall, this weekend: :cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackJarvis Posted November 29, 2009 Share Posted November 29, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Great start buddy :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HampshireIan Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Thats a very interesting system WS. Could be a very interesting one to follow. I have to say when I saw 2 West Ham players, 2 QPR players and 3 for Lyon in the list i had reservations about you getting your money back - do you get your money back for the three voids? Very impressive start :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Staines Passive Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two I join the ranks of the interested viewer in this thread, as others have stated nice start. Just out of interest how quick/slow is it to do your research for the stats? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted November 30, 2009 Author Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Thank y'all for your encouragement. To answer the two questions: The voids I didn't bet on were either left out or substitutes (I only bet on players in the starting XI). If I'd bet, I'd have lost my stake if they'd come on (or won if they'd scored!) or got it back if they didn't feature. That highlights a problem with the system - I either have to be hanging around for teams to be announced (which means being around a PC all weekend given the plethora of kick off times) or swallow losses caused when my bet is substitute and comes on for a pointless five minutes, or simply not bet when I can't be around. I'm concerned about more than one player for each team, too. I got away with it at the weekend, but I'll keep an eye on this and see if I need to select just one. I've never really timed it, but I'd expect the ten leagues to take up an evening. I'd love to add more (Portugal etc) but the reality is that I'm probably going to have to drop a couple. I've added another condition - the player must have scored in at least three separate home games, which is an attempt to weed out players who have played too few games to be statistically worthwhile. There are a few games in England on Tuesday; the only player that comes up is Canham at Hayes and Yeading, who is 7/4. Now there have been enough games this season, I'm toying with the idea of letting in players who have scored in 40% or 33% of homes, instead of the current 50%. The problem is that at smaller percentages the stats get 'lumpy', where for example players take penalties or play up front for a few games to cover for injuries and suspensions. I'm therefore looking for longer odds than the 6/4 or 2/1 to cover these anomolies, so for 40-49% I'm looking for 2/1 or longer, and for 33-39% 3/1 or longer. All other qualifiers remain the same. As I'm not convinved about going this low, this is a paper exercise for now. For Tuesday, only two come up, both for Bristol Rovers: Hughes, 7/2 (40/49 bracket) Lines, 4/1 (33/39 bracket) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted November 30, 2009 Share Posted November 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Great start WS, I like the parameters you have set. The good thing about the 50% qualification is that it means the player in question is unlikely to be on the bench, because if the manager had been rotating the squad before, it would have been very difficult for him to meet the qualification! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 2, 2009 Author Share Posted December 2, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Canham at Hayes and Yeading, who is 7/4. :@ Hughes, 7/2 (40/49 bracket) :@ Lines, 4/1 (33/39 bracket):@ Clearly not a good evening for the system, but the 'main' (over 50%) system remains in profit. An early check of a couple of divisions suggests there could be a good number of bets at the weekend, with no cups or international breaks to get in the way. This will be a more important guide of whether the system works or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 3, 2009 Author Share Posted December 3, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Picks for the weekend: 'Real' (scored in 50%+ of home games) picks, but for very small stakes as this remains very much a test Misimovic, Wolfsburg, 7/5 Boetang, Portsmouth, 7/2 (This seems such an exceptionally good price that I've gone onto the Premier Division thread to ask if there's any factors I don't know about) Abonglahor, Aston Villa, 5/4 Di Viao, Bologna, 7/4 Gilardino, Fiorientina, 5/4 Maesto, Genoa, 2/1 Palladino, Genoa, 2/1 Aduriz, Mallorca, 11/10 Rossi, Villareal, 5/4 Calabro, Venlo, 11/10 Everton, Heracles, 15/8 Maynard, bristol City, 11/8 Whittingham, Cardiff, 7/4 Ambrose, Crystal Palace, 7/4 Johnson, Leeds, 2/1 Bailey, Charlton, 9/4 Lisbie, Colchester, 5/4 Jackson, Gillingham, 5/4 Ashikedi, Kettering, 5/4 Cook, Oxford, 7/5 Morgan, Aldershot, 7/4 (It's good to see (the mighty) Aldershot represented, as it was looking at some of the odds for our players to score over the last couple of seasons that made me realise that the bookies do make some mistakes in their scorer prices. I've benefitted from Aldershot in this way, but for other teams I'm not as familiar with it's a case of finding a system to take advantage of mistakes in prices...) Paper 40-49% picks van Buyten, Bayern Munich, 11/2 Kwakman, Breda, 12/5 Overtoon, Heracles, 5/2 Hammond, Chesterfield, 2/1 Soares, Aldershot, 7/2 Paper 33-39% picks Johnson, Sheff Wed, 10/3 Weston, Gillingham, 3/1 Donnelly, Aldershot, 3/1 Value chasers might look at the following, all less than evens so not generous enough to qualify for my system, but statistically well priced. I may well have a small interest, but I'll keep it separate from these systems. Grafete, Wolfsburg, 10/11 Higuain, Real Madrid, 10/11 Beckford, Leeds, 10/11 Burton, Charlton, 10/11 Louis Fabiano, Sevilla, 4/5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Picks for the weekend: 'Real' (scored in 50%+ of home games) picks, but for very small stakes as this remains very much a test Misimovic, Wolfsburg, 7/5 :@ Boetang, Portsmouth, 7/2 :@ Abonglahor, Aston Villa, 5/4 :@ Di Viao, Bologna, 7/4 :) Gilardino, Fiorientina, 5/4 :) Maesto, Genoa, 2/1 :@ Palladino, Genoa, 2/1 :) Aduriz, Mallorca, 11/10 :) Rossi, Villareal, 5/4 :@ Calabro, Venlo, 11/10 :@ Everton, Heracles, 15/8 :@ Maynard, bristol City, 11/8 :@ Whittingham, Cardiff, 7/4 :@ Ambrose, Crystal Palace, 7/4 :@ Johnson, Leeds, 2/1 void Bailey, Charlton, 9/4 :@ Lisbie, Colchester, 5/4 :@ Jackson, Gillingham, 5/4 :) Ashikedi, Kettering, 5/4 void Cook, Oxford, 7/5 void Morgan, Aldershot, 7/4 :@ An awful weekend for the system, with only one of nine from England coming through. The European leagues actually showed a 12% profit, but didn't really make up for it. Running totals: 29 bets, 11 wins, strike rate 38% 29 units, 28.55 units returned, Yield -2% So, one great weekend, and one poor one and around equal. I hope the good weekend is more typical, but I suspect the reality lies between the two. Some quick maths before I started suggested I'd need a 40% strike rate, which is looking about right. The 40-49 and 33-39 percenters also bombed (1 in 6), but three of the five odds-on favourites came in giving a 12% profit on this element - but these were outside the system. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 6, 2009 Author Share Posted December 6, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two One possible for the Championship this midweek - Sharp at Doncaster, althoguh I don't think he's a certain starter. He has scored in three of his six home games, and seems to have a good recent record, making the 15/8 for a score against struggling Sheffield Wednesday look decent - statistically, at least! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 9, 2009 Author Share Posted December 9, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two One possible for the Championship this midweek - Sharp at Doncaster' date=' althoguh I don't think he's a certain starter. He has scored in three of his six home games, and seems to have a good recent record, making the 15/8 for a score against struggling Sheffield Wednesday look decent - statistically, at least![/quote'] :clap That one came through, returning the system to credit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 11, 2009 Author Share Posted December 11, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Weekend picks: Bent, Sunderland, evens Sharp, Doncaster, 7/4 Harris, Millwall 6/4 (although I think he's injured) Barnard, Southend, 11/8 O'Flynn, Barnett, 7/5 Lester, Chesterfield, 5/4 Hibbert, Shrewsbury, 5/4 Diego da Silva Costs, Valladolid, 7/4 Forlan, Athletic Madrid, 5/4 Nene, Monaco, 7/5 Ogbute, Hoffenheim, 5/4 Hoogland, Mainz, 4/1 Ivanschitz, Mainz, 10/3 Poepon, Sparta Rotterdam, 2/1 Matri, Cagliari, 12/5 Pazzine, Sampdoria, 5/4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted December 12, 2009 Share Posted December 12, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Weekend picks: Bent, Sunderland, evens Sharp, Doncaster, 7/4 Harris, Millwall 6/4 (although I think he's injured) Barnard, Southend, 11/8 O'Flynn, Barnett, 7/5 Lester, Chesterfield, 5/4 Hibbert, Shrewsbury, 5/4 Diego da Silva Costs, Valladolid, 7/4 Forlan, Athletic Madrid, 5/4 Nene, Monaco, 7/5 Ogbute, Hoffenheim, 5/4 Hoogland, Mainz, 4/1 Ivanschitz, Mainz, 10/3 Poepon, Sparta Rotterdam, 2/1 Matri, Cagliari, 12/5 Pazzine, Sampdoria, 5/4 Good job! Darren Bent just scored! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 13, 2009 Author Share Posted December 13, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Weekend picks: Bent, Sunderland, evens :) Sharp, Doncaster, 7/4 win Harris, Millwall 6/4 (although I think he's injured) void Barnard, Southend, 11/8 :) O'Flynn, Barnett, 7/5 :@ Lester, Chesterfield, 5/4 :) Hibbert, Shrewsbury, 5/4 void Diego da Silva Costs, Valladolid, 7/4 :@ Forlan, Athletic Madrid, 5/4 :@ Nene, Monaco, 7/5 :@ Ogbute, Hoffenheim, 5/4 :@ Hoogland, Mainz, 4/1 :@ Ivanschitz, Mainz, 10/3 :@ Poepon, Sparta Rotterdam, 2/1 :@ Matri, Cagliari, 12/5 :) Pazzine, Sampdoria, 5/4 :@ A small loss this weekend of just over a unit. Five out of seven same in on Saturday, making it look as if it was going to be a great weekend, but all Sunday's picks failed. Running totals: 44 bets, 17 wins, 39% strike rate 44 Units staked, return 44.16 units, yield +0.4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted December 20, 2009 Author Share Posted December 20, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers: Take Two Three for Sunday 20th (didn't have time to look at Saturday's games, but many would have been frozen off anyway): Saha, Everton, 5/4 Caboye, Lille, 7/5 Trezeguet, Juventus, 11/10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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