A Vacant Belt Come March?

[billy the punter]

Finally managed to update my blog with a couple of posts. Thought this one may be of interest... A Vacant Belt Come March? Despite what the market currently tells us, due to the leading protagonists vulnerabilities, this season's Queen Mother Champion Chase could well be up for grabs. Master Minded has disappointed at home as well as on the course recently, and with bone scans planned we must look for a viable alternative. Current 2nd favourite Big Zeb is classy enough but with four falls from eleven chase starts to date, a clear round at Cheltenham is far from certain. If someone will lay me "fall no-bet" I'll get involved. I was lucky enough to back Well Chief ante-post for the Arkle at 33/1. His legs were not as brittle back then, and as brilliant as he is around Cheltenham, he is no longer an ante-post proposition. I'll wait to see what condition he is come the day before I include him in any calculations. It's a possibility these three may not be in the race with a circuit to run on that Wednesday in March, so with most firms going double-figures bar, there must be some risk-free ante-post value around. Risk-free in the sense that bigger priced selections backed now will be a similar price if the big guns line up, but will be a fraction of the price if any of the A-Team fail to make it. Voy Por Ustedes, Crackaway Jack and Schindlers Hunt will almost certainly run in more suitable races so are far from ideal ante-post possibilities. Last season's Arkle 1-2, Forpadydeplasterer and Kalahari King, don't interest me the prices. I still believe both will need further to be at their best and it's no surprise to see them trading at similar prices for the Ryanair Chase. Barker's (who?) 12/1 quote looks very stingy indeed. It's solely based on his two improved runs last April, the last of which a 15l victory over Forpadydeplaster. In my opinion this one time 90-odd rated handicap hurdler hasn't the class to be a Champion Chaser and his odds are at least a third of what they should be. It leaves me with an obvious and perhaps uninspiring selection in Petit Robin. A 9l third at 12/1 last season on only his fourth chase start, he ran better than the formline suggest when a well-beaten 7th on his final start 2m4f Melling Chase at Aintree. After Cheltenham his stable spoke of a step up in trip to "avoid the winner (Master Minded)". However given the sudden uncertainty regarding Master Minded it wouldn't surprise me if connections re-nag on that idea and had another crack at the 2m prize. His left-handed form is very decent and with another year behind him he may not put in his one blunder per race - if that is the case there is every reason to believe he can improve on his 3rd last year, even if class acts do show up. If they don't it leaves the door wide open and just a reproduction of last year's effort will see him fight out the finish. A speculative E/W at Ladbrokes and William Hill's 33/1 is in order.

[fintron]

Re: A Vacant Belt Come March? On. :ok