Guest TazaD Posted April 1, 2004 Share Posted April 1, 2004 Jumping on this one now.....Western Bulldogs to win @ 2.57!!! HUGE odds. I know Rocca is back for the 'Pies, and he will make them a much better team than last week...but I still think the price is based wholly on reputation. I said it time and time again last year that the Coll'wood midfield isn't good at all....Hold Tarrant/Rocca, you're a long way to winning the game. Actually expect Rocca to play in the ruck. Fraser was absolutely smashed by Ottens last week, so no reason Darcy wouldn't dominate him. Harris looks a good match up with Tarrant...Much more athletic than either Croft or Kretiuk are/were. Not ENTIRELY confident of a win, but definately more than 50/50.....Odds of 2.57 are way out of line. Port Adelaide SU @ 2.30. I simply cannot understand this price at all! Opened at 1.90 each, and has slowly been drifting out all week!!! Ifigure this is about as high as it will get...SURELY!! Are people just blindly backing West Coast because they are at home?...Well that's fine against Victorian teams, but not Port. The Power have won 6 of the last 7 meetings between the clubs, and the one loss was Rd. 1 last year when Port were EXTREMELY under-done. Port have won 6 of 9 games all time @ Perth, and this game will also be played at night, negating the heat, another advantage the Eagles might have had. Yes, Port have some good players out (with Primus likely to miss again too), but the midfield of Brogan in the ruck, P. Burgoine, Carr, Schofield and Kingsley is as good as any going around. Port will have a definate advantage at both ends of the ground. West Coast struggled to contain Rawlings last week, so how do you think they will go with Tredrea!! Cornes will be too good for who-ever the Eagles play at CHF, and Wilson/Wanganeen/Cochrane will be able to keep Sampi/Matera quiet. Can't see anything here other than a Port victory. 2.30 is a crazy price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Citizen Kane Posted April 1, 2004 Share Posted April 1, 2004 AFL TazaD Who are the doggies ? I'm a real novice at AFL so am not familiar with all the nicknames. Only game priced up in NZ at the moment is Melbourne 3.00 v Richmond 1.30. Thought that was an ok price for Melbourne, any comments ? Cheers CK Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted April 2, 2004 Share Posted April 2, 2004 3-0 (+2.9 units.) Fremantle +20.5!!! (1.80 @ SportsTAB) [+15.5 everywhere else] No reason at all that this won't be a very close game. Sydneyu won at home last season by 14 points after trailing most of the match. Since then, Sydney have lost Cresswell, Schauble and Nick Davis....and not much has come in to replace them! Freo will miss Cook and Croad (obviously!) from last years team, but get Waterhouse and Sandilands in.....And this is where the advantage is. HEIGHT. Sandilands will win the ruck duel and give first use to Fremantle. Sydney's main strength is having Goodes ruck and then run around the field, but with Sandilands winning the ruck knocks, I suspect Pavlich will run with Goodes and neautralise him pretty well. (He only had 12 touches last year!). Also, Freo will have Simmonds playing FF, and without Schauble, Sydney will be left with James/Bolton or Doyle to match him with! BIG advantage Freo. Freo's onnly real weakness is CHF, but that won't matter so much on the smaller SCG. Picked Freo to win, and love getting the points. Hawthorn WIN @ 1.65 Really like the look of the Hawks this year. Their midfield is superb, and I can't see how the Kangaroos will slow them down. I know one game doesn't mean much, but Hawthorn had 43 clearences to Melbourne's 24 last week.....Not great news for the Kanga's, who only had 28 themselves last week. (8 less than Adelaide!!). Everitt will DOMINATE anyone the Kangaroos can put in the ruck. (McKernan!!!...Brown, Hale, Porter??)...and feed Mitchell all game. The Kangaroos midfield gets plenty of the ball themselves, but they are loose so Mitchell, Crawford, Vandenburg etc. should get plenty of it to feed a very potent forward line. Provided Hawthron kick straight (They missed a heap of easy shots last week, and should have won by a lot more!), I expect them to win this one quite comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest tailsgod Posted April 3, 2004 Share Posted April 3, 2004 Rnd 02 -afl Nice write ups Taz. Can't say I really disagree on any of them. However, after last night form reversal debacle I won't be touching the Pies v Doggies game. Even though I'm a Port supporter, and the the odds are great value, I'm still not confident enough to back them away from home this week against the Eagles - main concern is the ability of our midfield to secure enough possession to win the game and the fact that Picket and Primus won't be playing. This weekend I'm backing Hawthorn (-9.5) and Carlton (-4.5) to both beat their margins and if I had a sportstab account I would definitely have a punt on Freo with a 20.5 start Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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