Adrian Massey

[shadowvkc]

Hi all. Thanks to Princecapri I have discovered the joys of Adrians website. I would like a little help with the results page tho. After making my selections as to what I would like to test for.. what am I looking for? 1. In a good backing system what strike rate and 100% return would I be looking for to warrant further investigation 2. The same as above but for a laying system. For this am I right in assuming that his estimated betfair odds would have to be changed by 20% to reflect the average laying price on betfair? Or because it is already betfair odds it has already been done? Thanks. Adam

[princecapri]

Re: Adrian Massey Hey fella, I'm a convert, love his site! I will offer my two pence on your queries: In a good backing system what strike rate and 100% return would I be looking for to warrant further investigation Fair question, but justifiably difficult to answer. Some people say that SR of 30% and Return of 110% are good for long term. To an extent, I agree, but I think you can go one step better. If you are starting up, I would recommend looking for SR of 25-45%, and returns of 110-150% (ofc more wouldn't hurt). I have been meaning to write an article on maths of it all, but the gist is: Consider 2 systems: A: 40% Strike Rate with 110% return b: 25% Strike Rate with 120% return Which one do you think is better? I would say B is, because it gives 120% return. However, (not taking in mind the number of bets), B is better long term than A. A is better short term, as it can give quicker wins. Also, B is more prone to variance, a strike rate of 22% will affect your profit far more than if A was to fall down to 35%. I found a 'system' which gives about 8 selections a day, SR of 9% (one every 11 bets?) and returns of 160%. Now this is good, BUT, aside from the fact that this was in places, backfitted, I think you can expect long losing runs from this, and one potential problem is that it is hard to pick out all selections. Few things I would avoid while forming a system is: - Do not consider Favs/Non-favs - Do not consider Odds - Do not consider courses unless you have reasons (uphill courses, tight courses etc are justifiable) The same as above but for a laying system. For this am I right in assuming that his estimated betfair odds would have to be changed by 20% to reflect the average laying price on betfair? Or because it is already betfair odds it has already been done? It has already been done for you. Harder to answer as Laying is not covered outright. I will tell you what you can do. On that website, you can get Betfair Odds, use them (pref use selections from 2008+ as their BFSP are more correct). Copy the list of selections into Word Copy this list into Excel. Now average all the BFSP values. Divide this by 100. (100/BFSP average) If this value is more than, you have a good system on your hand! I found a 'system' (again, probably back fitted), which gave a SR of 3.6% and average price of 10.9 (Estimate SR at about 9%). Now this is Value. Its the same as finding a backing system with SR of 30%, with Estimate SR (due to high odds of 9/1) being 10%. Essentially, you are gaining 20% on each bet. Any more questions, just ask. Admittedly, this is one area I am starting to get my feet into.