Wolverhampton 16th Nov (AW)

[chris34]

3.30 Wolverhampton Traphalgar could prove hard to beat if in same spirit he was in when last seen 44 days ago on turf, successfully winning a claimer and seller on favourable terms but did win with authority and his handicap mark has now dropped 4lb lower than last win at Beverley in june and same mark as a win round lingfield in a nursery 2 years ago, holds a lightly raced profile and is his first try over this trip but has been running on strongly in last 2 races and looks as though a step up further in trip should suit down to the ground. 0.75pt win traphalgar 4.00 Wolverhampton Highlight of the card and many of these look set for a winter in similar races and spending the months clashing so good to get on top early, it’s a thoroughly exposed line up with many of these getting on in the years. Toms Laughter is massively over priced in my opinion at 10/1, his tendency to be slow away at stalls is costing him races valuably now but if they can get him to start on level terms he should go well having run on strongly on latest start over this trip, clearly didn’t get home last time over 6f having to be pushed along at the start to get on terms but back to 5f should suit much better and is now running of last winning mark from a good draw from stall 6. Fantasy explorer is rightly favourite here with a good draw from stall 1, won over 6f well infront of some well fancied sorts although form not brilliant from that race but he went on to prove he is in form when second behind Green Manalishi in same race toms laughter caught my eye and gets to run off same mark today and can string decent efforts together. 0.5pt e/w toms laughter 10/1 bet365 0.25pt win fantasy explorer 9/2 bet365 4.30 Wolverhampton Several exposed sorts here again. Ingenue has got a tough ask with a massive rise in weights for impressive victory on turf but then failed to follow up on polytrack at lingfield under penalty and handicapper hasn’t taken any chance and unless the improvement continues at rapid rate of knots this will be tougher. Follow the dream finally got off the mark in a maiden handicap then ran out another improved effort over CD last time out off a 5lb higher mark but has been rised another 2lb for that again far from ideal. Which leaves me with the likely favourite Dubai Diva who is completely unexposed having raced over 2m last time out at lingfield for the first time and won well and 3lb rise in handicap fair enough and so lightly raced has the potential to improve above and beyond many of these! 1pt win dubai diva 5.00 Wolverhampton Gifted heir was in good heart, but ran as though something was amiss on Saturday night. Marmooq looks to be finally coming to hand having finished 3rd over a mile at kempton and is now potentially well handicapped having dropped a 1lb in handicap after that effort and is now 5lb lower than last win at kempton. This trip has stretched him before but last time out he ran on extremely well and the extra furlong may be a benefit if in same mood 0.25pt e/w marmooq 5.30 Wolverhampton Usual get out stakes, wide open! Vamos is worth another chance having won impressively over CD on penultimate start had to take a wide route last time under a 3lb rise in handicap, likely to have to do that again from a wide draw but with a 7lb claimer on board makes him extremely light concern has to be of the jockeys ability but they are clearly using his claim in this event. 0.25pt e/w vamos

[StuSimmy]

Re: Wolverhampton 16th Nov (AW) 15:00 Wolverhampton Northern Desert has a good chance of notching yet another all weather win to his name. He has already won over the course and distance in a seller in the past and his last 4 wins have all came in sellers on the polytrack. Is 2lbs lower than his last winning mark which came way back in February over today's trip at Lingfield. Has been in good form all year on the all weather and has rarely been out the first three. Is drawn in stall 5 which is fairly low so that is to his advantage as it is better to be drawn low over 7 furlongs here. 1 pt win @ SP 16:00 Wolverhampton I have looked over the 5 furlong races from the last 3 cards at Wolverhampton to see if there was any draw trends as the ATR website has the draw Advantage as low. From the 6 races over 5 furlongs the winners came from stalls (amount of runners in brackets): 4(11), 1(13), 5(13), 9(13), 4(12), 7(8). Stall 11 was the most popular stall with 4 placings from the 6 races. It does seem that being draw low does help to an extent but the draw bias doesn't seem so strong. I realise this is only over the past week and these trends are made up with hundreds/thousands of past races but we will see how it works out. Fantasy Explorer has earned his favouritism with great form on the All Weather (2 wins and 2 places from 4 runs)and a good 2nd LTO. Runs off the same mark today and has the inside draw. I think Canadian Danehill is well overpriced here in a wide open race. Many of these have claims but my selection is a 4 time course and distance winner and has had a great season on the turf. He is only 1lb higher than his last win on turf when he won a Class 3 handicap at Newmarket. He also won at Sandown during the season. Has ran up in class in 3 races since but the drop back down in class today will maybe see him back in the winners enclosure. Does have a wide draw to contend with though but as shown in my analysis before, it might not be such a negative. Rebel Duke also loves the All Weather (4 wins and 6 places from 13 runs) and with a good 3rd at Southwell on his reappearance after a 5 month break off a mark of 88. Runs off the same mark today so should come close. Has 1 course and distance win to his name. Is still 8 lbs higher than his last win but with place form off 85, 86 and 88 then he is entitled to win off today's mark of 88. He is a strong traveller up front and despite the fact he will face competition for the lead today I still feel he has strong claims. Also has a high draw but again it might not be as much of a negative as it seems. 1pt win Fantasy Explorer @ 7/2 (Bet 365) 0.5pts win Rebel Duke @ 5/1 (Bet 365) 0.5pts E/W Canadian Danehill @ 16/1 (Bet 365) (All Best Odds Guaranteed) Will have a look at the rest of the card tomorrow before I go to work, might have 1 or 2 more bets. Between a couple in the 15:30 race but might just leave it alone.