Djordje Posted December 28, 2009 Author Share Posted December 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TastesLikeTuna Posted December 28, 2009 Share Posted December 28, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Hey Djordje, Someone reccomended me your thread/system and i've read it though. I'm new to sports betting and would like to follow your system but i'm not sure how lol :$ What's the difference between a lay and backing? I'm pretty lost but i really want to get into this :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted December 28, 2009 Share Posted December 28, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System What's the difference between a lay and backing? Sorry to intrude on your thread, Djordje, but maybe I can point TastesLikeTuna in the right direction (probably to the nearest coast :lol.... Tuna.... sea..... get it?) Where a selection says, for example, "Back Barnsley", you should bet on Barnsley to win (Djordje quotes the best odds available). Where the selection says, for example, "Lay Swindon", you should bet on Swindon not to win. You can do this one of 3 ways..... (a) you can "lay" Swindon on a betting exchange site (e.g. Betfair), (b) you can bet on a "double chance" market (i.e. the opposition team to win, or a draw), or © you can bet on the opposition team with an Asian Handicap of +0.5 (e.g. Pinnacle). Option (a) will probably give you the best odds, with Option © and close second. The odds on Option (b) are usually the poorest. I hope this clarifies it. Djordje is getting excellent results so far, so I think it's worth putting a few quid on his selections. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 28, 2009 Author Share Posted December 28, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 28, 2009 Author Share Posted December 28, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Thanks TLT for your interest and thanks Grex for your help :ok Poor results in last two rounds, but I hope we'll get better after festive period is over :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Hello Djordje, it is very interesting to see, that nearly your total profit is generated by the Back-Bets although the strike rate is negative. But that doesn´t matter as the average quote is well over 2,00. May be it is a good choice to concentrate on back-Bets and drop the laying bets ??? Best wishes and good luck ! Greetings from Germany Brecki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted December 29, 2009 Author Share Posted December 29, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System thanks for your input brecki :ok indeed, backs were far more successful, and I was also thinking about focusing on traditional 1x2 bets. These are back vs lay stats so far: Back: Bets counter 26 Strike rate 0.31 Staked 162.00 Profit 30.30 Yield 18.70 Lay: Bets counter 33 Strike rate 0.52 Staked 261.61 Profit -9.74 Yield -3.72 Sample is not big enough, but difference looks quite significant. One more thing I noticed is that these lay results were pretty good with odds up to 2.00, i.e. Laying favorites seems much more profitable. Here is the stats for Laying with odds lower than evens: Bets counter 18 Strike rate 0.56 Staked 130.41 Profit 35.31 Yield 27.08 There is definitely room for improvements according to this, and the first step would be to exclude risky lay bets. Any thoughts? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brecki Posted December 29, 2009 Share Posted December 29, 2009 Re: Goal Rating System Well, very good investigation! The most important thing is, that if you change your betting philosophy and just lay odds less than even, there MUST NOT BE ANY CHANGE to your selection process. That means there is no need to add any further bets just because the total number of bets is reduced by not playing lay bets higher than even. I just mention this, because it is natural to do this automatically without even noticing it. I will follow this thread with pleasure and hope you can keep the horse racing till we are rich :D Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 1, 2010 Author Share Posted January 1, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 2, 2010 Share Posted January 2, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System Excellent pick to lay Bournemouth..... :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 8, 2010 Author Share Posted January 8, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 8, 2010 Author Share Posted January 8, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 9, 2010 Share Posted January 9, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System 2 out of 2 :clap:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 10, 2010 Author Share Posted January 10, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 15, 2010 Author Share Posted January 15, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System Even better :loon..... as a matter of interest' date= why are you concentrating only on matches with ratings of +1, 0 and -1 ? Is this because you have more historical data which falls into this group, and therefore more confidence ? Hi Djordje, I see you answered this question in the affirmative My question is, say you found a team with GR +1 that you considered a value bet, if in another fixture a team had a higher GR and was available at the same price, shouldn't that also be a bet (since I presume that the correlation between GR and win rate is positive)? I understand the need to filter the large number of fixtures down, but could it be at the expense of missing out on even better value bets elsewhere? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 16, 2010 Author Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System Hi Djordje, I see you answered this question in the affirmative My question is, say you found a team with GR +1 that you considered a value bet, if in another fixture a team had a higher GR and was available at the same price, shouldn't that also be a bet (since I presume that the correlation between GR and win rate is positive)? I understand the need to filter the large number of fixtures down, but could it be at the expense of missing out on even better value bets elsewhere? Your statement is logical, but that's not that simple. For example, match ratings of +15 or +20 are quite rare, so I can't be so confident that my percentages are right in these situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System I can understand that lack of data at the extremes makes it difficult to reliably calculate the value price for each specific value of GR. However, what I am questioning is if (for simplicity's sake) the best-fit line tells us that the home team in a fixture with GR of zero is value at any price 2.0 or better, then surely it follows that for all fixtures with GR of zero and higher any home team whose price is 2.0 or better must also represent a value bet Hope I've explained myself better this time :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System Makes sense, Pip Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PAW Posted January 16, 2010 Share Posted January 16, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System Thanks Grex. I'm not trying to throw a spanner in the works of a system that is doing the business, you understand Djordje, just wondering whether the selection criteria could be expanded to include more bets, without changing the logic :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Djordje Posted January 17, 2010 Author Share Posted January 17, 2010 Re: Goal Rating System Thanks Grex. I'm not trying to throw a spanner in the works of a system that is doing the business' date=' you understand Djordje, just wondering whether the selection criteria could be expanded to include more bets, without changing the logic :ok[/quote'] I see where you're coming from, no problem ;) I'm currently experimenting with different selection criteria, so I'll gladly inform you when I get some more details :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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