Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov

[bowles10]

Promises to be a belter of a day again! Won't be on much tomorrow as its the Wifes Birthday so will try to post up tonight Selections & analysis in here please

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Course winners Cheltenham form ( tomorrow's distance shown in Red) 12.50 Barizan 1 1.20 No qualifers 1.55 Dont Push it 2-1-f-f-p-2-2-7 Lacdoudal 0-4-1-2-6-3-4-2-6-4-0-0-6 Maljimar 6-2-4-1-7-2-2 Zacharova 1 2.35 Our Vic 3-f-p-1-p-9-1-2-2-1-p Knowhere p-f-2-8-0-1-3-p-1-6-0 Chapoturgeon 9-1-2 Poqulein 6-0-1-8-1 Tatenan 4-1-f Ballyfitz U-1-2-1-1-2-p From Dawn to dusk 2-4-1-1 3.10 Comply or die 1-4-2-1-2-0-p-p-0-0 Andytown 1-1 Earth Planet 1-3 Made in Japan 1-8-3-5-3-0-8-0-1 3.45 No qualifiers Well another sprinkling of horses that have raced here many times. On first reflection, Maljimar, Ballyfitz & Andytown all look to have a great chance, however surpisingly none are distance winners at this particular distance. They are either stepping up or down in distance. Distance winners with form are Barizan in the first, Our Vic, Chapoturgeon, From Dawn to Dusk. Poquelin in the big race. Comply or Die & Made in Japan in the 3.10. Not saying the winners will be amongst these but consdier big price places as well today we would have found (as detailed on todays thread) Razor Royale 1st 12/1 2 places @ 16/1 & 10/1 Garde Champetre 1st 4/6 1 place @ 18/1 Attorney general placed @ 33/1

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 1.55 Cheltenham Bowles keeps banging on about course form being important at Cheltenham but has every right to as course winners were the order of the day again today at Prestbury Park. Since racing resumed for the current national hunt season there have been a couple of handicap chases run over this trip. One has gone the way of Mister Apple's and the other went the way of Razor Royale, so course form has been my first port of call for study here. Russian Trigger, Hello Bud and Gallant Nuit are all promising chasers, the first named especially, and all undoubtedly have further races in them, but with little, if any, course form to their name I am happily passing over at the prices currently available. I make Don't Push It a 5/1 chance on my tissue and feel he is the most likely winner of this race, so have glady taken the 15/2 on offer tonight with Totesport. It is not often that a Jonjo O'Neill-Tony McCoy runner is underestimated in the betting, usually the opposite is true, but they team up with a progressive chaser here that has won 4-10 over fences and showed great promise as a novice, winning at this track and also going close when a second to the classy Denman. He had a bit of time running over hurdles but his second to Big Buck's here in January reads well, and back chasing, he is 8 lbs higher than his last win at Ascot. I think he has chances of overcoming that mark and having had a recent pipeopener over a trip that he would have found plenty short enough, he is entitled to run a big race tomorrow. I also think Maljimar is a cracking price at 8/1. He is a course winner over 2m 5f but also ran a highly credible second in the William Hill Trophy here at the festival and he is only 4 lbs higher now. He shaped as if needing the run when behind Nelson's Spice on his comeback, but will strip fitter for the run, is open to improvement, and could run a race. My final selection is Lacdoudal who I want as a saver. He lacks the room for improvement of some but he has slipped down to a decent mark, much lower than when last winning at Sandown, and his experience of the track and chases in general puts him at an advantage over some of the younger rivals. Mike de Beauchene and Chelsea Harbour are two talented stayers that throw a bit more spice into the mix but they are fairly exposed now so I am passing over. Best Ascot was travelling well to a point on his reappearance but his previous course run is offputting. Zacharova returns from a break but is proven to go well fresh and is expected, but I feel my main two bets will give me a strong hand and will stick with those. Don't Push It 15/2 Tote, 0.5 pt Maljimar 8/1 Paddypower, 0.4 pt Lacdoudal 14/1 Paddypower, 0.1 pt (saver)

[Spooner]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Cheltenham 14:35 - Chapoturgeon @ 8/1 >365 (bog) Paul Nicholls' saddles three in this race but I think by start time tomorrow he may be left with just the two with Poquelin pulled out due to ground conditions, meaning Ruby will ride Tatenen. I don't think he'll be winning on either of those and preference is for Chapoturgeon. After winning the Jewsons Novices' Chase over C&D he has disappointed, falling at Aintree and then 2nd here LTO when sent off hot favourite, at the age of five there is plenty of improvment to come and I imagine Nicholls' has been working closely with this horse, Timmy Murphy has a good record on him winning four of seven races. The mark of 153 may look a little harsh but this horse has serious potential and with question marks over plenty of other I think he will take some serious beating tomorrow.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov I am happy to follow Fintron on Dont Push it tomorrow in the 1.55 race. I think the recent spin round Aintree would have it spot on for this one as that trip was much too short for this horse. Bred by Old Vic, the horse will relish the conditions underfoot & loves cheltenham. Looking at its race record 04/05 - 3 05/06 - 1-1 06/07 - 1-2-1-1-F-5 07/08 - 1-F-0 08/09 - P-8-2-2-7-1 09/10 - 4 so 3 seasons running it won 1st time up. Has only won once in 9 outings, a class 2 chase at the National meeting at Aintree. Its record at Cheltenham is 2-1-f-f-p-2-2-7 its record on Soft ground is 4 wins form 6! Corals have offered me a matched bet, so i will take 5pts ew @ 13/2, with money back if it loses:ok

[Fineform]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Tomorrow’s racing has a distinct “kick start” to the season flavour about it with the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham. It has traditionally never been an easy one to crack for me but this year’s event appears sub-standard. I like to look for a young chaser proven over course and distance with not too many chase runs under his belt and the potential to improve through the season. Hailing from last year’s winning stable I feel that Ballyfitz has the qualities needed to win a big handicap this season. A useful hurdler and winner of the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in 2007/2008, he hit the ground running last season winning 2 races at this track in October and November. His form tended to tail off after that and he ran a shocker behind Carruthers at Ascot on his penultimate start. He was a tired horse by the time he was pulled up behind Cooldine at Cheltenham on his final visit to the racetrack. There is every chance that the break will have done him good and the rain is just what he needed as it will slow the speedier horses down. As such, Ballyfitz may well force the pace and make this in to a real test. It is also worth mentioning that he has never been on the deck in any of his 6 chase starts but would add that his jumping has not always been foot perfect. Nigel Twiston-Davies has been very bullish this week about his chances and I am sure he will have done plenty of work with him over the schooling of fences at home. Admittedly, Ballyfitz is not much value now (he was 20-1 on Monday) but the 13-2 currently available is just over the minimum price of 6-1 that I had him marked up for betting purposes. Venetia Williams may have the answer to the race prior to the big one. Ignore the form figures, as previous Welsh National winner Miko de Beauchene is the best horse in the race. If fully wound up, he has every chance of outstaying these. The 12-1 on offer with Victor Chandler is out of line with the majority of other bookmakers and fully compensates for any concerns about his fitness.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov :welcome Fineform - Good post there with good reasoning & a few of us are on Ballyfitz at 16's to 20's as it was flagged up earlier in the week. it also comes out well on my trends for tomorrows race. I like to follow Venetia when she hits form & i was waiting until December before she really gets going. She often has one for this meeting though

[Jimmy2shoes]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Ballyfitz good horse in with a shout, Dont rule out Northern Alliance, good race to come, cant wait.

[fintron]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov I'm in the Ballyfitz camp too, posted my bet in the stickied thread on Tuesday... It was only the other day that I posted an ante-post pick for this race - Shining Gale - before he failed to make it past the declarations stage less than 24 hours later! I am taking another risk here in proposing another selection for this race as all bets struck this early in the week are settled on ante-post terms, however, I would be disappointed if Ballyfitz didn't go for this race as it looks an ideal place to the start the season for this course specialist. It was a tentative decision to pass him over for this in the first place, as was evident in my comments on him in my previous post but I preferred Shining Gale because he had enjoyed the benefit of a recent run. Nevertheless, with that rival now withdrawn, it could prove to be a blessing in disguise, and the market has been giving out the right signals for the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained horse - as I write one of the two remaining firms that have him priced up at 20/1 have snipped him into 16/1 and I can't imagine him starting that big come race day if he does take his place in the line up. He is a chaser that was a regular around here last season and won a couple of novices chases. He was unlucky to bump into the useful Carruthers at Ascot thereafter and although he pulled up in the RSA when last seen at the festival, this can be considered a weaker race. Every cloud has a silver lining though and after failing to complete in that Grade 1 chase the handicapper has cut his mark down to 146 for this and I think he stands a really good chance off that weight now in handicap company - the 10-11 he carries isn't too burdensome and it is entirely feasible to think he could be running off a mark around the 160 mark come the end of the season as he is open to more improvement over fences and could find himself back in graded company. 20/1 William Hill, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). Have also taken 16/1 with Paddypower as part of their offer whereby they will refund the win part of stakes if a Nicholls trained horse wins the race - 3 pts.

[markmywords]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 14:35 Cheltenham Our Vic - It looks like I've missed the value on Ballyfitz so I am going for a horse 2 from 7 going 4 from 8 distance and 3 from 9 course this old timer looks value for me at 33 -1

[Tedthewolf]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 1.55 BARON WINDRUSH/REGAL HEIGHTS both have been off the track a long time but would have chance if fully wound up and i would imagine the Twiston Davis horse to be as he has got horses to win in the past after a long break.The other horse is having his first outing for new stable after departing from the McCain yard who did well with the horse. Both should be around the 25/1 mark so both worth a bit e/w 2.35 I do think one of the least exposed horses TARTAK has a fine e/w chance at around 18/1 will like the ground and there should be a lot more to come from this horse but i will also have a small e/w on the two old soldiers at around 33/1 OUR VIC & KNOWHERE who imo are not totally out of it esp the later. 3.10 LE BEAU BAI will be around 14's and this improving animal has a e/w shout now back over hurdles after a successful stint at the chasing game with three wins from four runs. 3.45 EYEFFESS is stable mate to the fav and has a e/w chance at 25's may even get bigger. Will like the softer ground and has had a sweetner on the flat. I think ZAFRANAGAR is better than he has shown in Britain so for and i think an improved effort is on the cards with Choc booked for the ride and is worth a bet e/w at around 14's. Gaood Luck All What Ever You Bet :ok

[StuSimmy]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 13:55 Cheltenham Hello Bud won the Scotish Grand Naional to end a great season earlier in the year notching up 4 wins from 6 runs. He virtually made all that day and was a true test of stamina for him. He is a bold front runner and likes to lead all the way, has won over today's distance and over further so today's trip will be fine. Will be a career high if he wins since he is 7lbs higher than his Scottish National win. Had a run only 14 days ago so will be fitter for this race. Has won on Soft and Good To Soft so any rain will not effect the horses chances. Trainer had 1 winner and a place at the meeting yesterday. He is the only horse in the race not to have had a run at Cheltenham so course form cannot be measured but I am sure he is up to the task and will stay on up the hill. 1 pt win @ 13/2 (Bet 365 - BOG)

[Mr Bubbles]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov I am on Hello Bud for the 13.55 Got a good record on the soft ground and should run well fresh. Currently 7/1 at most bookies.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 1.55 - Miko De Beauchene e/w This race usually goes to the best stayer in the field. In the conditions it's not that important who's well in the wights, but who's the fittest and will stay strong up the hill. Miko had a few tumbles last year, but finished 3rd to Rambling Minster on heavy off 152. Same mark today, but with talented William Bidick on board claiming 5 and this will help a lot. The horse will absolutely love these conditions and despite not being a course winner he ran a decent 2nd to Ballyfitz at the 2008 festival. This price is a bit too big for a horse with a definite e/w chance. 12/1 VC

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 2.35 PP Gold Cup Knowhere e/w Not getting any younger, but I think he will get his ideal conditions. And with Our Vic top weight he will race off handy 11st with claimer which will be ideal. He beat Exotic Dancer and Voy Por on soft last year in the Old Roan. Also beat Our Vic at Cheltenham. These are all Grade 2 events. Of course many younger rivals are pontentially well handicapped for saturday, but with rain forecast I think Knowhere may have a fitness edge and will stay powerfully up the hill. I like his record over 2m4f .. 6 wins from 9 starts and 2 others are placed. Only once he's been out of the top three. Will need to be at the top of his game to have any chance of winning here, but should be a lot shorter price imo and racing knows bigger upsets than this. According To Pete e/w With the rain coming I think this 3 miler will run a big race today. Very progressive last season winning 4 consecutive chases. Then ran a decent 4th behind Big Fella Thanks in listed company off 3lbs higher mark than today's. Fit from the flat. Pop e/w He was running a big race at the festival when falling 4 out. That was with a penalty after his Hereford win. Back to mark 138 and seems to be well in in the weights. Won't mind the soft ground and Daly's horses have been running well recently. Interesting move at Betfair for him from 80 to 38. 2nd season novice chasers do well in this race and lots of the horses won't like the ground today.

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 310 Cheltenham - Maucaillou – each way @ 16/1 bet365

Looks fairly weighted based on his Cheltenham form from 2008. was a Pertemps hurdle 3^rd behind Fair Along and Don’t Push it in December 2008, off an OR of 126. Runs of 129 today. Prior to that finished behind Andytown at Cheltenham on soft and finds himself 23lb’s better off with that one today. It seems lot of these have at least one question mark against them and it wouldn’t be a massive surprise to see a bigger price figure. Maucaillou seems to have the course and going in his favour today and should go well.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 1:55 Cheltenham: Zacharova 3pts win 1pt place 14/1 Coral Zacharova is only six and although not the most consistent of performers his best form seems to be on softer going. He has won on the course and stays this far and beyond. Venetia williams does pretty well here, and 11 of her 13 winners in recent years have been chasers. Looks a decent bet in a pretty wide open race. 2:35 Cheltenham: Tatenen 3pts win 11/1 Sportingbet I've already done 4pts win Pop being a non runner! Still will side with the Paul Nicholls third string. He does have course form. The distance is a question mark, however he won over further than the two miles on the very soft at Auteuil, so there is every chance he will stay the trip. Unlike many of his rivals his rating has gone down since his last run. Has gone well fresh in the past, the fifth should hardly count as this season as it was at Punchestown in April.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov I have seen some comments about jockey bookings etc for the big race, for any doubt, Timmy Murphy is riding Chapotrugeon as he is David Johnson's jockey, or he could have chosen Our Vic as well but opted for the better horse. Ruby had the pick of the other 2 for Nicholls both owned by Andy Stewart. Really looking forward to this race as its one of the chases i really enjoy at this stage of the season, a big field, top trainers & note the first 6 or so home as they will all be around for the season & come Cheltenham will be in the frame again.

[bowles10]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Found my post from earlier this year

16-04-2009, 15:52

Replies: 8 Cheltenham - Thursday 16 April Views: 213 Posted By bowles10 Re: Cheltenham - Thursday 16 April 3.55 wonder if NTD can work the magic on Made In Japan, formerly top class , could go well taken 46.0 on betfair!

Not as big today at 16.0 but has a good record here & Twiston Davies conjured up its win back in April here. Can go well with the claimer on board at such a low weight 2pts win @ 16.0 BF

[mileni4uk]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 3.10 - Le Beau Bai e/w 10/1 bog One of the best backed horses of the day. Stays 3m+ on heavy and will love the conditions. Ollie Greenal on board and yard had his first winner the other day. Good e/w chance in a race, which is not that competitve and the selection is well in the weights.

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov PISTOLET NOIR 12.50 Cheltenham. 0.5 points each way. Favourite obviously the one to beat, but no value at all at around 11/10 and the value does lie with us. A decent first run and open to any amount of improvement. The trip and distance shouldn't be anything to worry about and I feel the weight will tell on the favourite in the latter stages. If that's the case, then we should have the legs to push him very close.

[chris34]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 12.50 Cheltenham Barizan is clearly a short price but its impossible to see him getting beat, is clearly up in grade but so is everything else and mccoy has struck up a good relationship with this horse concern would have to be the testing conditions and that is probably why it is just a small stake for me. 0.5pt win barizan evs corals 1.20 Cheltenham Kanpai took full advantage of everyones jumping mistakes last time out and I did tip him up that day and will again today, mccoy looks a positive booking in a trappy 3 runner event again he might be relying on jumping errors, Pettifour is fav with good reason with seconds and 3rds in grade 1 and 2 contests but now takes on big fences for first time but s the likely winner but skinny odds unattractive, Toby jug looks a little better value having won 3 chases on the trot now but looks to need some pace in race is he gonna get it?? Therefore the kanpai looks a bit better value who is clearly gonna continue to improve aslong as he can jump better than he showed on his debut 0.5pt win kanpai 5/1 corals

[Tipster5000]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Really want to get involved on this meeting today as i was out yesterday working but still managed to watch the racing, Gonna take a look now!!!!!!! :ok

[Tipster5000]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Going updated from Andrew King at the course (Racing Post) Important ground update The official going is now soft (heavy in places) More to follow So looks like being a bit of a slug up the hill.

[Stevet1859]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov 3:10 Cheltenham: Powerstation 3pts win 10/1 Blue Square Powerstation has not taken to chasing but was a force to be reckoned with over hurdles. Ran well in this race last year and is proven on the going and at the distance. Other younger sorts in opposition but they have a little to prove (and might) but Powerstation has some pretty solid credentials and looks over priced at 10/1.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Cheltenham 12.50 Prestbury Juvenile Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 (CLASS 1) Barizan Holds a very good 80% Strike rate over hurdles but seems to of won his best races on Good to firm ground so this Soft (Heavy in places may not play to his best powers but still a big player. Nicky Nutjob Very good value if there are no more withdrawls, ran a good race at Wetherby last time out and could easily improve again and could be E/W value at a decent price. Royal Max High enough at the weights but could easily be there or thereabouts at the finish but still a bit to find on some of the other players. Olofi Could improve on this ground but again weight could get the better of him but did improve on Good ground compared to Good to Firm so one to watch. Roseska Ground should be no worry but weight could easily be a negative on what he has already done over this distance. Pistol Noir Could be a danger on his 3rd at Chepstow but far away on some of these others Screaming Brave N/R Trumpstoo Put in at the deep end LTO but the mark was quite high on that step up but could still have some improvement on those races and may not be to far behind barizan. Princess Soranya A lot to find on her sole start (5th) on Good to firm (Who knows how she will perform on this going but again a massive step to improve). Outlook Barizan should be strong enough on what he has already done and should take all the beating, Trumpstoo should not be left out on recent form and coming from a strong yard, Nicky Nutjob maybe worth a E/W bet at decent odds. Advice Back Barizan £7 Win @ 6/5 Sporting Bet, Trumpstoo £2 E/W @ 8/1 Betfred & Nicky Nutjob £1 E/W @ 25/1 W/Sporting Bet.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov Cheltenham 1.20 Ultima Frontrunner In IT Solutions Novices´ Chase (CLASS 2) Toby Jug Not sure if he will like this ground and to be honest im suprised Mrs Humphrey has not taken him out of this race as his form over this going is not good, weight will be no problem and nor will the distance so just slight reservation on the ground. Kanpai Hasnever gone over this distance so this step up could be a bit of a worry but did perform well when winning LTO, So maybe he will want more but again questions to be answered. Petitfour No Chase form to go on, And has a bad record at Cheltenham and finished both times well behind others, So only plus will be the distance. Outlook Petitfour Has been thrown in at the deep end and never jumped a chase fence in public, Kanpai may take the step up in trip but still has a few worries, Toby Jug seems to have the best chance on what he has done so far. Advice Back Toby Jug £4 Win @ 9/4 W/Sporting Bet

[StuSimmy]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov

PISTOLET NOIR 12.50 Cheltenham. 0.5 points each way. Favourite obviously the one to beat, but no value at all at around 11/10 and the value does lie with us. A decent first run and open to any amount of improvement. The trip and distance shouldn't be anything to worry about and I feel the weight will tell on the favourite in the latter stages. If that's the case, then we should have the legs to push him very close.

:nana Nice one, 7/2 winner!

[Aykay1]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov :clap

[Tipster5000]

Re: Cheltenham Sat 14th Nov :clap