Weekend Aussie Rules.

[Guest TazaD]

Carlton +21.5 (1.85 @ SportsTAB) Carlton are playing much better football than most people expected, and were very unlucky not to beat a red-hot Kangaroos last week. Essendon have been hugely over-rated IMO. Essendon's defense has been terrible so far this year, allowing 103 shots at goal, the worst in the league....and, they have had the 3rd fewest shots at goal themselves, behind only Geelong and Richmond!! It doesn't matter where these teams are on the ladder, they are always very even...In the last 3 years Carlton have won 3 of 6 games paying 4.00 last year, 4.00 and 5.75 before that!! I really expect the Blues to win SU tonight (2.95 is the best I can find)...esp. with the forecast of some rain.

[Guest TazaD]

Re: Weekend Aussie Rules. Melbourne +16.5 Past history is too tough to ignore here. Port have won just 3 games of their last 13 at the MCG...only 1 by more than 4 points!! Also Melbourne have a great head-to-head record v. Port. They have won 6 of the last 10 meetings...all 4 at the MCG. Even the losses have been repectable, by 17, 20, 4 and 14 all @ AAMI. Port's last 7 away games: Lost by 1 point @ Geelong. Won by 15 @ dome (v. Bulldogs). Won by 1 point @ Brisbane. Won by 4 @ MCG (v. Hawthorn). Won by 20 @ dome (v. Richmond). Loss by 44 @ MCG (v. Collingwood). Won by 3 @ Perth in Rd. 2. That's only 1 from 7 covering this number. Also, maybe surprisingly Melbourne averaging 5 more Inside 50's a game than Port this season!!...and allowing 6 less a game!!!! Melbourne brilliant value @ 2.95 to win. Also a bit of bad weather forecast will do Melbourne a favour too. Really think the Dees win this one, but will take the safe option.