Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Winner Tranquil Sea

[bowles10]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Steve, would like a bit more rain for Pop i think. The trip may be against it though as that race takes some getting.

[bowles10]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov any vouchers on ballyfitz looking value now as it is as low as 8/1 but can still get 12's. I would expect it to start around 8/1-9/1 i think. fav should be 5/1 ish in a big competitive field like this.

[RuleBritannia]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Watching RUK today, seeing Dave Nevison talking about Ballyfitz. According to him, he is the only winner of this race and has been all over him @ much bigger odds than availble now, but even then his price now seems quite big. :eek

[jtw1]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Sporting Life - JOHNSON FAITH IN CHAPOTURGEON [url=http://www.cheltenham.co.uk/] Both Our Vic and Chapoturgeon will run in the colours of David Johnson in Saturday's Paddy Power Gold Cup. The owner has won the race an incredible six times with Challenger du Luc, Cyfor Malta (twice), Lady Cricket, Celestial Gold and the returning Our Vic. However, it is Jewson winner Chapoturgeon who appears to be his main hope this year. "I think things may have fallen into place for him but there is a big question mark over the ground, it will probably ride soft and maybe even worse if the forecast is correct," said Johnson. "That might possibly work against one or two of the other horses who are well-fancied. "He's got to improve quite a bit. He's gone up 18lb since he won the Jewson last year and hopefully he's improved that much - he won by 10 lengths that day. "Paul (Nicholls) says he is in good shape, he has schooled very well and he acts on any ground. "He was schooled earlier in the week and again today and it went very well so hopefully it (jumping) will hold together for Saturday. "He appears to have improved at home but you only find out on a racecourse but Paul is extremely happy with him and everything has gone to plan. "He's got two other runners in the race of course, there are 17 others in there as well and there is Our Vic. "He is not getting any younger and he had one or two little setbacks after beating Kauto Star, but David (Pipe) said he is fit and well and Eddie (Buckley) who rides him out says he has never been better. "He goes well at the course, the ground won't be an inconvenience, he'll carry the weight and Danny Cook, who schooled him the other day, takes 3lb off. "It wouldn't surprise me if he ran a very big race. Timmy (Murphy) only said to me yesterday "am I on the right one" and that probably answers a few questions itself. "I think he'll run a very big race," he told At The Races.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Final bets for me .. Knowhere 1pt win 70.0 Betfair (antepost) 1pt to place 7.0 betfair 0.5pts e/w 33/1 generally bog According To Pete 1.5pts e/w 18/1 Corals bog Pop 1pt e/w 33/1 (Pop might not run if the ground goes too soft. The other two will love it the softer the better. And I just realized Tom Molloy actually claims those 5lbs, so Knowhere for me has a brilliant chance racing off just 11 stone.) 8pts staked

[Spooner]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Cheltenham 14:35 - Chapoturgeon @ 8/1 365 (bog) Paul Nicholls' saddles three in this race but I think by start time tomorrow he may be left with just the two with Poquelin pulled out due to ground conditions, meaning Ruby will ride Tatenen. I don't think he'll be winning on either of those and preference is for Chapoturgeon. After winning the Jewsons Novices' Chase over C&D he has disappointed, falling at Aintree and then 2nd here LTO when sent off hot favourite, at the age of five there is plenty of improvment to come and I imagine Nicholls' has been working closely with this horse, Timmy Murphy has a good record on him winning four of seven races. The mark of 153 may look a little harsh but this horse has serious potential and with question marks over plenty of other I think he will take some serious beating tomorrow.

[bowles10]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov with my 2 ante post bets Ballyfitz & Bible Lord both lining up & with a tasty price on Ballyfitz, i have played on the 4 course winners with Betfair From Dawn to Dusk 32.0 1pt win Our Vic 38.0 1pt win Poquelin 17.5 1pt win Knowhere 40.0 1pt win so thats 6 horses i have running for me with an outlay of 9 points. Already advised Ballyfitz 1.5pts ew 16/1 Bible Lord 1pt ew 20/1

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov

with my 2 ante post bets Ballyfitz & Bible Lord both lining up & with a tasty price on Ballyfitz, i have played on the 4 course winners with Betfair From Dawn to Dusk 32.0 1pt win Our Vic 38.0 1pt win Poquelin 17.5 1pt win Knowhere 40.0 1pt win so thats 6 horses i have running for me with an outlay of 9 points. Already advised Ballyfitz 1.5pts ew 16/1 Bible Lord 1pt ew 20/1

You are worse than me these days Bowles, backing 6 horses.:lol With more rain forecast it looks as if it's going to be a bog. Needing a horde who stays further than 2m4f. It's going to favour Ballyfitz, stays 3m on soft, certain to start favourite now. Well done to all who've got on at big prices. Should also suit According To Pete and Knowhere too. Latter is a bit old to win a race like this I would imagine even in ideal conditions. Interesting that connections now believe Bible Lord is better on a sounder surface; because of his win last time. But prior to that his best was on a soft surface. Agree Bible Lord looks value.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Knowhere may not win it and something unexposed could nick it, but he will definitely play for the places imo. Beat Our Vic and Neptune Collonges early last year. Then at this time last year he beat Exotic Dancer and Voy Por Ustedes. I think he is very dangerously handicapped off virtual 149 with the claimer on board. He was found out for speed at Aintree and ran a good race coming with some sort of a chance before Monet and Tidal kicked for home. I think he's very big price in these conditions. He likes to pop up in strong contests and run big races.

[Gingertipster]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov

My Prices to 100% for very soft. Our Vic 0.4% 250/1 Tartak 4.75% 20/1 Knowhere 1% 100/1 Chapoturgeon 9.5% 10/1 Poquelin 5.25% 18/1 Tatenen 9% 10/1 Tranquil Sea 10.5% 17/2 Northern Alliance 4.75% 20/1 Ballyfitz 15% 11/2 (available at around 13/2) Tarotino 7.25% 13/1 Il Duce 0.3% 300/1 My Petra 7% 14/1 (available at 22/1 betfair) Bible Lord 8.5% 11/1 (available at 28/1 betfair) According To Pete 7.5% 13/1 I'm So Lucky 0.75% 132/1 Pop 0.5% 200/1 Three Mirrors 0.3% 300/1 Leslingtaylor 0.25% 400/1 From Dawn To Dusk 3.25% 28/1 Hold Em 4.25% 22/1 (available at 33/1)

[jtw1]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Will try to keep summaries short and sweet ;) OLD VIC - Last time an 11yo won was back in '75 , won this in'95 but surely too long in the tooth now. TARTAK - Going and Distance should suit ,but very disappointing LTO when 8/8 behind MONETS GARDEN . 5th behind FORPADYDEPLASTERER in the Arkle [btn 10l] and went on to win the Grade 2 Novice Chase at the National meeting. KNOWHERE - Another 11 y-old with justifiable odds of 33/1. CHAPOTURGEON - P Nicholls inmate who should appreciate the ground , distance and , importantly won over the course. Timmy Murphy takes his usual ride . Aims to be only the 2nd 5y-old to win this in it's 49 year history which is a negative imo. POQUELIN - Would appear to be the the main stable choice with Ruby Walsh on board . Has won twice over the course and ran only once over 20f which it won . The ground is a concern as he has won 5 of his 7 runs on Good - G/F ground . His win in France on Heavy was a 3 horse race so not too much to inspire confidence . TATANEN - Completes the Nicholls trio of runners and while this one will relish the ground conditions he has still to run further than 18f but being only a 5 y-old that could be forgiven. Age and race distance are a concern . TRANQUIL SEA - Will relish every inch of the 21f in the Soft BUT has ran twice at the Course and has been well beaten in both , 6th behind CHAPOTURGEON btn 28L in the last of those. May well find a few of these too good imo. NORTHERN ALLIANCE - On paper has had 3 runs this season but the first 2 were back in July so it would be unfair to use that as a negative this time [see Bowles Trends ] . Tony Martin has booked Paul Carberry to ride and he has a 100% record on him , 1/1 :D. He also was behind CHAPOTURGEON [ same race as Tranquil Sea ] on his only outing at the track . Going / Distance no problem but no wins for the yard in the past 14 days is a slight worry. BALLYFITZ - Loves the Course on which he has won 3 times BUT has never won over 20/21f since season '05 . The other 6 career wins were all over 3m+. Won first time out over the past 3 seasons but will this be too short ?? I think so. TAROTINO - The ground may well be against Alan King's charge as he has won 3/5 on Good . A win on Soft was back in '07 in a Novice Hurdle . Another who may find one or a bit better . IL DUCE - 50/1 so ignore. MY PETRA - Henderson/McCoy combination has a 47% winning strike rate , 8/17 over Chases. Has won on G/S but any deterioration would be a concern. Took the wrong course at Wetherby last time so best to ignore that !! BIBLE LORD - rated 6lb higher than he was whne finishing 8th in this last season [ btn 33l] Has completed the course in 3 of 4 runs at Cheltenham and won last time at Wetherby in a Listed Chase but i feel he is well exposed and will be found lacking tomorrow. ACCORDING TO PETE - Before L'ANTARTIQUE won in'07 it had been 24 years since a Northern trained runner had won this [ POUNENTES , now there was an old fav of mine ] his last 4 wins have been over 3m+ and last won over 21f back in '06. Does has course experience , behind BALLYFITZ , but similar to that one i think this trip is too short for him. FROM DAWN TO DUSK - would have had a great chance at the weights if the rains had stayed away , even being a 10y-old is not a positive but he is lightly raced for his age . His record at the course is 2 , 4 , 1 , 1 . Distance is a positive and the HOBBS stable has been finding winning ways over recent weeks . The rest are all 33/1 + . SUMMARY - I won't be making a definate decision until i see how the weather has affected the going tomorrow but it'll be a choice between TARTAK - They say every horse is allowed one bad run and LTO might well have been his . He has a record in Chases of 4-4-1 from 11 runs over the bigger obstacles. Wins and places in G2's shows he has the class to win this. CHAPOTURGEON - Course form and proven on Soft ground over the distance outweigh's his youth [ just ] . NORTHERN ALLIANCE - Despite the fact that this is one race at Cheltenham where the Irish have a desperate record , 4 wins since it's inception and none since '80 , this Tony martin trained entry might just run well enough to win. The booking of Paul Carberry , considering the events of the past week , could be a positive , especially when he has won on his only rdie on this one . MY PETRA - Will probably bypass this one but the Trainer/ Jockey combo can't be ignored. Soft going will NOT help his chances . FROM DAWN TO DUSK - A real pity the ground has turned against him but his record at Cheltenham is a real positive . 3rd at Market Rasen LTO in Sep over 23f he will strip fitter . Has a record of 2-1-2 from 6 runs over Steeplechase's.

[StuSimmy]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Really struggling to pick anything out to be honest, nothing is standing out much to me so I may not have a bet in the race, will post something up in the morning/early afternoon if I do end up having a bet on the race.

[jtw1]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov the going is now offically SOFT and looking at yesterdays winning times it was certainly that on Friday. That means i'm taking out MY PETRA and DAWN TO DUSK . Main selection - 10pt win CHAPOTURGEON @ 15/2 with Willam Hill , only a 5 y-old but plenty of experience and conditions will suit . Other bets - Hard to ignore the 20/1 about TARTAK , forgive him that last run and those odds are a steal imo.Experince of the Going /Distance/ stand him in good stead if all is well . 5pts ew TARTAK @ 20/1 [vc bet , betfred + sporting bet] NORTHERN ALLIANCE can run a good race for the under fire PAUL CARBERRY , again conditions should suit but one small worry is the lack of winners from the yard in recent weeks . 5pt win @ 11/1 [b sq]

[StuSimmy]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov With many thoughts I have finally picked out two bets: Chapoturgeon is a course winner over 1 furlong further. He won the Jewson Novices Handicap Chase at the Gold Cup meeting in impressive fashion off a mark of 135. All his wins have came on Good to Soft or Soft going so he will relish today's ground conditions. Was also 2nd to Gauvain over 17 furlongs here back in April in a Class 2 race. He runs off a mark of 153 today which is the same mark as that place LTO. Timmy Murphy on board again who has rode him in all 4 of his wins. Write this about Knowhere for his last run:

Five out of the eight runners in the race have won over course and distance in the past including last years winner of this race Knowhere and the winner of this race 2 years ago in Monet's Garden. Knowhere has only had the three runs since then and is back down to a mark of 154 which he won this race off of last year. All three runs since have been over further but he seems best suited to 20/21 furlongs. He is 1/1 over course and distance so he has a chance to maintain that 100% record today. The softer the going today the better for him and with it classed as Good as the moment I feel it should be fine for him. His jumping needs to be back to his best today as his jumping definately let him down LTO in the Grand National and he was eventually pulled up.

Finished 3rd that day. He is a course and distance winner and Molloy takes an important 5lbs off his back for this run. Really can't ignore him for an each way bet at the price his. 1 pt win Chapotugeon @ 7/1 (WillHill - BOG) 0.5pts E/W Knowehre @ 33/1 (WillHill - BOG)

[jtw1]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov

TRANQUIL SEA - Will relish every inch of the 21f in the Soft BUT has ran twice at the Course and has been well beaten in both , 6th behind CHAPOTURGEON btn 28L in the last of those. May well find a few of these too good imo.

He certainly relished the conditions , makes it even more frustrating that CHAPOTURGEON failed to get round :\

[mileni4uk]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Can't believe Poquelin managed to get 2nd. Looked like pulling up 3 out.

[mileni4uk]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov

Can't believe Poquelin managed to get 2nd. Looked like pulling up 3 out.

Actually he likes to power up the Cheltenham hill. I remember having him in double with New Approach when he looked beaten in a novice event last year and absolutely flew to win that day.

[Tipster5000]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Bad news for connections of Three Mirrors condolences to all involved :sad

[bowles10]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov

just looked at my trends & likely to only have 2 or 3 qualifiers at most If Nicholls horses are fit they will take some beating but they are not well handicapped now. Poquelin & Tatenan would be interesting & any rain for the latter would see it having a real chance. Poquelin could be anything but its course form is excellent but is inexperienced over the distance & has struggled in big fields. One of the interesting runners is BIBLE LORD who represents decent ew value @ 20/1 Skybet The horse is a distance winner which is key. It has only had 1 run this season which it duly won also a good trend. It has winning form on both soft & decent ground. It has 2 placed efforts at Cheltenham in big fields (3rd of 17 & 4th of 22). Fell at the festival last year behind Something wells at the 5th fence. Has a 7lb penalty to overcome which may prove difficult but should be thereabouts. Another is BALLYFITZ available at 16/1 Bet365. Hails from last years winning stable of Nigel Twiston Davies. Has won over further which also is a good trend here. Loves the course with figures of U,1,2,1,1,2,P. Ran away with a novice chase here at the meeting last year & reminds me a bit of last years winner Imperial Commander. Can see this one leading round the turn & will be there to be caught. Will stay up the hill no problems. Hopefully Paddy Brennan wil ride & the weights wont go up. Can win off OR 146. 2 ante post bets BIBLE LORD 1pt ew @ 20/1 Skybet BALLYFITZ 1.5pts ew @ 16/1 Bet365 May back them again on the day as well but just can't miss those prices.

My previous bet in this' date=' Shining Gale, is a NR for this but In a way I think it may be a blessing in disguise as I was quite keen on [b']Ballyfitz anyway. In my previous write up I commented on Ballyfitz.. As I write one of the two remaining firms that have him priced up at 20/1 have snipped him into 16/1 - only Hills remain (and he is shorter than 21.0 on the exchanges), so I am taking that now with the market giving off the right noises and with him actually running off 146 for this - the previous mark quoted (149) was due to an error on Sporting Life. The yard is in good form at present, saddling up a winner down at Exeter this afternoon, and although riding plans have not been finalised, and Paddy Brennan could possibly ride Knowhere, I would be disappointed if he didn't favour this chaser that has often shown great promise and could go onto better things this season. 20/1 William Hill, 0.5 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds).

we deserve a :clapfor the 20/1 & 16/1 ante on the 4th placed Ballyfitz Pity Poquelin didnt win as i would have got my money back on the PP offer & also backed the horse at 17.5 last night

[bowles10]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Saturday November 14 2009 Cheltenham 14:35 - Result Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase (grade 3 Handicap) £150000 added, 4yo plus, 2m 4f 110y, Class 1, £85515 penalty, 16 ran Going: Soft, Heavy in places Race Report » Winning Time: 5m 23.5s

• 12:50
• 13:20
• 13:55
• 14:35
• 15:10
• 15:45

Pos.	Dr.	Dist.	Horse	Wt	Jockey	Trainer	Age	SP
1			Tranquil Sea (IRE)	10-13	A J Mcnamara	E J O'Grady	7	11/2 f
		mid-division, headway 9th, challenged 3 out, led before next, driven and stayed on well flat opened 13/2
2		4½	Poquelin (FR)	11-1	R Walsh	P F Nicholls	6	12/1
		held up in rear, slow jump 11th, headway between last 2, kept on well flat, went 2nd towards finish touched 14/1
3		2	Hold Em (IRE)	10-0 pt1	J E Moore	W K Goldsworthy	7	14/1
		chased leader, went 2nd and pecked 2 out, stayed chasing winner, driven, no impression when lost 2nd close home opened 20/1
4		3½	Ballyfitz	10-11	P J Brennan	N A Twiston-Davies	9	6/1
		chased leaders, blundered 10th and slightly lost place, rallied under pressure from 3 out, stayed on well flat opened 11/2
5		5	According To Pete	10-7	P Kinsella	J M Jefferson	8	9/1
		soon chasing leader, hit 9th, ridden and weakened 3 out opened 10/1
6		6	Our Vic (IRE)	11-12 b	Danny Cook (3)	D Pipe	11	25/1
		led, headed 4 out, ridden and pecked 2 out, weakened soon after opened 28/1
7		7	Il Duce (IRE)	10-10 b	S P Jones (3)	Mrs P Robeson	9	40/1
		chased leaders, led 4 out, ridden and headed after 3 out, weakened between last 2 opened 50/1
8		24	Tartak (FR)	11-5	S Thomas	T R George	6	18/1
		mid-division, hit 6th, behind from 11th, tailed off
PU			Knowhere (IRE)	11-5	T Molloy (5)	N A Twiston-Davies	11	20/1
		behind, hit 5th, tailed off 9th, pulled up 3 out opened 28/1
PU			Northern Alliance (IRE)	10-12	P Carberry	A J Martin	8	10/1
		behind, hit 5th, hampered 8th, tailed off when pulled up 3 out touched 17/2
PU			My Petra	10-10	A P McCoy	N J Henderson	6	16/1
		held up towards rear, hit 7th, blundered 9th, tailed off when pulled up 3 out
PU			Tarotino (FR)	10-10	R Thornton	A King	7	12/1
		chased leaders, behind from 10th, tailed off when pulled up approaching 12th opened 14/1
PU			I'm So Lucky	10-4 t	T Scudamore	D Pipe	7	28/1
		mid-division, moving place and behind when pulled up 11th opened 33/1
PU			Three Mirrors	10-1	G Lee	Ferdy Murphy	9	33/1
		behind when pulled up 7th
F			Chapoturgeon (FR)	11-4	T J Murphy	P F Nicholls	5	7/1
		held up in rear, blundered and fell 7th opened 13/2 touched 8/1 £5000-£600 £4000-£500 £2000-£240 (x5) £3000-£390 £5000-£650 (x2) £2600-£400
UR			Tatenen (FR)	11-0 t1	Christian Williams	P F Nicholls	5	12/1
		blundered 1st, held up in rear, hit 4 out, no chance when blundered and unseated rider 3 out opened 10/1

[billy the punter]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Winner Tranquil Thought Chap was moving up nicely when coming down. Too early to say for sure. Two falls in three is a worrying sign though.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Key Race: Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase - Cheltenham - Sat 14th Nov Winner Tranquil Tranquil Sea is value for alot more than 4L in my opinion. The horse absolutely hacked up and simply idled up the hill. Plenty more to come from him.