dannkez2407 Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Here is something to get you all cursing the form books, this system is based solely on head to head history, which will give some of you a funny turn but like some i firmly believe that head to head form holds a better presedent than that of current form, take derbies, top 4 clashes etc. The best example i can think of is liverpool(washes his mouth out from saying such a dirty word :lol) against man utd. Now the club had lost its last 5 games - the form books said it all, united should have turned up on the day and whooped their ass but alas they did not and what it was down to was the fact both clubs hate each other with a passion, the form book was out the window, and in fact if you had the looked at the h2h at anfield could have comfortably predicted that result, even the fact it would be unders..... so to turn the form book inside out that team that doesnt like to be mentioned than went on and subsequently lost to fulham....FULHAM then drew away to lyon. Not exactly what i would say as running to form. in fact the h2h at fulham suggested that value was on fulham to win as they had won 3 out of the last 6 played at their ground. What im trying to get at is that we all know a successful system is one based on value over long term bets. Getting that value can quite easily be found on the h2h previous and that is how this system will work. The bets will either be over, under, home win or away win. The staking system for the while will be level stakes whilst this gets itself established then i may consider changing it. For the meantime the leagues will be all english and just the scottish, italian and spanish top divisions, although i may look at internationals separately as we have a break coming up. So anyway thats it...ive placed my selections and they will follow in the next post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted November 8, 2009 Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Obvious value in overs/unders and 1x2 Good luck.:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Obvious value in overs/unders and 1x2 todays selections WIGAN/FULHAM - Unders @ 2pts - 1.78 Reasoning - Goals between these two have been few and far between, in fact the average between the two is only 1.13 per game. So although the odds are clearly stacked towards unders, there is still value there for me. ALMERIA/OSASUNA - Overs @ 2pts - 2.3 Reasoning - Average goals between the two are 3 per game, its a no brainer for me, with odds of 2.3, that is awesome value. SEVILLA/VILLARREAL - Unders @ 2pts - 2.04 Reasoning - Average goals between them stands at 1.88, a massive amount below 2.5 and with odds of 2.04, it cant be missed. GENOA/SIENA - Unders @ 2pts - 1.96 Reasoning - Average goals is 1.5 per game that is a far cry from what the odds suggest. LAZIO/MILAN - Milan win @ 2pts - 2.22 Reasoning - Milan have won the last 5 out of 8 meetings between these two, they have had a rocky start but you feel like cheating the bookies taking odds this high, so had to be done. UDINESE/FIORENTINA - Overs @ 2pts - 2.06 Reasoning - Average goals between the two is 3.25 and odss of 2.06 screams value. :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 8, 2009 Author Share Posted November 8, 2009 Re: Obvious value in overs/unders and 1x2 Good luck.:hope cheers staffy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted November 9, 2009 Author Share Posted November 9, 2009 Re: Obvious value in overs/unders and 1x2 todays selections WIGAN/FULHAM - Unders @ 2pts - 1.78 :cow Reasoning - Goals between these two have been few and far between, in fact the average between the two is only 1.13 per game. So although the odds are clearly stacked towards unders, there is still value there for me. ALMERIA/OSASUNA - Overs @ 2pts - 2.3 :sad Reasoning - Average goals between the two are 3 per game, its a no brainer for me, with odds of 2.3, that is awesome value. SEVILLA/VILLARREAL - Unders @ 2pts - 2.04 :sad Reasoning - Average goals between them stands at 1.88, a massive amount below 2.5 and with odds of 2.04, it cant be missed. GENOA/SIENA - Unders @ 2pts - 1.96 :sad Reasoning - Average goals is 1.5 per game that is a far cry from what the odds suggest. LAZIO/MILAN - Milan win @ 2pts - 2.22 :cow Reasoning - Milan have won the last 5 out of 8 meetings between these two, they have had a rocky start but you feel like cheating the bookies taking odds this high, so had to be done. UDINESE/FIORENTINA - Overs @ 2pts - 2.06 :sad Reasoning - Average goals between the two is 3.25 and odss of 2.06 screams value. :hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope:hope not such a good start, but we will keep pressing on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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