How do YOU decide which price to select with Betfair?

[palaceman]

A number of times on this forum I have read people comment that they wished there were more threads covering a “general” betting topic. Well, here is one where everyone can have an opinion as I suspect that virtually all of us use Betfair at some time or other.

It is a topic that fascinates me and which I have given a lot of thought to for various reasons. Firstly because, as a layer, I don’t have the option of using bookmakers. (But of course the significance of getting a good price at Betfair is equally important whether you are backing or laying). Secondly, because over the course of a year the ability (or inability) to regularly select somewhere close to the optimum price can make a massive difference to the profit/loss figure – almost as much as selecting the correct horse. And thirdly, because I’m not sure I have ever truly mastered the art.

So how do you decide whether a price is likely to shorten or drift, and how successful are you in predicting these fluctuations? Speaking to different people I have come across various techniques. These include:

• Looking at the amount of money that is waiting to back or lay your selection, and using that to decide whether the price is likely to go up or down.
• Noting the current prices offered by the bookmakers, and whether they are drifting or shortening, and then comparing them to the Betfair price.
• Taking a look at the selections, particularly naps, of the most popular daily papers and racing websites to gauge whether these are likely to drive a price down.
• Looking at whether the horse’s price has been a steamer (or perhaps drifted) in its most recent race, and using that as a pointer to whether it will happen again.
• Using the projected Betfair starting price, or their Price/Volume graph, as a guide.

I am sure there will be other techniques. If so, please let’s hear about them. I will be very interested in what people have to say, and how successful they have found their particular technique(s) to be. I hope it will lead to an interesting and educational debate.

[fintron]

Re: How do YOU decide which price to select with Betfair? After studying the race I try up a price in my head whatI think the horse should be and if the prices available are bigger I will back it before it may possibly shorten. Sometimes I do this with the intention of purely arbing. I feel the early bird catches the worm when backing more often than not, especially when there are tipsters like Pricewise and Hugh Taylor around, if they fancy the same horse, annihiliate the price leave you without bet (one of the techniques you mention), so you have to take a price early. That said, most of my betting is done via bookies anyway as I want the best odds guarantee. As for the lay bets I have tended to place less emphasis on value, up to now. Again, I have a price in my head for what I feel the horse will be, but on Betfair it seems to favour backers more than layers, and the layers have to lay above and beyond the prices of those with bookmakers so I have tended to lay at whatever price I can, although capping at a maximum price. I do realise though that this is a careless approach and a few recent losing lays have convinced me to change my lay approach - as I am eating into my profit unnecessarily, even accounting for that fact winners inevitably happen. So with the lays I am to only lay if a horse is trading at less than I feel it should be.