Nottingham 4th Nov

[chris34]

2.15 Nottingham Alexandros has not got to run anywhere near his OR to take this has been off the track since disappointing at royal ascot, will appreciate this return to soft ground the biggest threat would probably be plum pudding who was a complete flop over his fav track at weekend and the go dolphins other runner is a threat but alexandros looks there first string and is 7lb better off on OR. 3pt win Alexandros 0.5pt rev f/c alexandros and Young pretender 3.25 Nottingham I want to oppose the current market fav here in Bollin dolly who is clearly in good form at the moment but that is all on fast ground. Eastern hills has previous form on soft ground and has put some good efforts in lately but doesn’t have visor on today and is now 6lb lower in handicap than last win and tylicki desperate for wins!! Elk trail is still a maiden on the flat but has won 2 novice events on soft ground and on that form would be dangerous to discount and in my opinion is far too over priced 16’s after a good run over at southwell off this mark when last seen but has been off track for nearly 200 days but has gone well fresh before. 0.25pt e/w elk trail 16/1 bet365 0.25pt e/w eastern hills 8/1 bet365

[RussP]

Re: Nottingham 4th Nov 12.10 Nottingham First race of the day and this will be the sum total of my investments today. 17 runners expected for this Class 6, 5f sprint on soft ground. What has been evident this term is that the stands rail is strongly favoured, as is the tendency to race up with the pace. On that basis alone, I'm striking through all the runners in single figure draws. Of the others, Pinball & Mission Impossible are out of form, Berrymead has a tendency to start very slowly and Tanley has a very poor run lto to put behind it. This leaves us with 4 and none are easily discounted. Silk Gallery has a great chance to follow up its lto win from the best draw of all but Alacity has claims of reversing the form with its 6lb pull, whilst El Potro is dangerous to dismiss on its favourite track with ground and mark to suit, and absence no issue. However, the one I'd like to be on at a big price is: Deo Valente - Still a maiden but that isn't enough to put me off here. Drawn really well in 14 and could easily make the running. The only one of the 3 inside that could prevent this one grabbing the rail is Silk Gallery. Continues to drop down in distance and I actually think the drop to the minimum on this going could really benefit it. It's best runs on turf have come on softish ground so conditions should suit. Performed well in its maidens so handicap mark has been way too high all season, dropping 21lbs this term. Dropped to this mark of 54 lto when finishing an excellent 3rd on the AW at Wolverhampton. Made the running at a decent clip that day over a furlong further and was only collared in the final 200 yards. Had first time tongue tie and blinkers that day and repeats that today. The horses that finished 1st, 2nd and 4th that day were all held up off the fast pace set by the selection, and this one finished almost 6L in front of the next horse to race prominently, representing decent form. Same mark today, shrewd trainer who makes his money from sprinters and same promising jockey on top all indicate likelihood of a big run. Trainer is showing 3 winners and 4 places in the last 2 weeks, whilst jockey has a 8 wins from 30 rides this year for the trainer, an excellent strike rate. I expect a decent price on this, around 12/1, and think it will run a big race, with the 3 mentioned above the likely challengers. Also think it's worth combining the above 4 (Silk Gallery, Alacity, El Potro and Deo Valente) in forecast & tricast combos.