Crouch Potato Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 A little something I thought of earlier. Using H2H and form data I will make goal bets - it doesn't have to be over 2.5 - it just has to offer value. Bets will be for 25 or 50 or 100 depending on strength. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Brighton v Gillingham - Over 4.5 Goals Paddy Power - 50 @ 7.50 ++ 2 of the past 8 H2H has seen 5+ goals ++ 2 of the past 4 Brighton home games has seen 5+ goals ++ 3 of the past 5 Gillingham games has seen 5+ goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) risky but i like it, will watch with interest ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Good luck Crouch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Cheers Hoo Skeid Oslo vs. Kongsvinger IL - Over 3.5 Goals - 50 @ 2.68 ++ 5 of the past 6 H2H has seen 4+ goals ++ 3 of the past 7 Skeid games has seen 4+ goals ++ 4 of the past 7 Kongsvinger games has seen 4+ goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Not a good start but it can only get better from here. I might look at changing the staking system (it's only paper trailing for the most part anyway). I want to give more proportionately to these bets, so I think I will have category A, B and C bets, with 1, 2 or 3 ratings (A and 1 being the highest). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Cheltenham v Macclesfield - Over 2.5 Goals Betfair - A2 @ 2.00 ++ 7 of the past 10 H2H has seen 3+ goals (2000-2005) ++ Last 4 H2H @ Cheltenham has seen 3+ goals (2001-2005) ++ 6 of the past 8 Cheltenham home games has seen 3+ goals ++ 4 of the past 6 Macclesfield away games has seen 3+ goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Clermont v Caen - Over 2.5 Goals Betfair - A2 @ 2.52 ++ 5 of the past 5 H2H has seen 3+ goals (2003-2006) ++ Last 3 H2H @ Clermont has seen 3+ goals (2003-2005) ++ 3 of the past 3 Clermont home games has seen 3+ goals ++ 3 of the past 6 Caen away games has seen 3+ goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Le Havre v Laval - Over 3.5 Goals Betfair - B2 @ 4.6 ++ Last 4 H2H @ Le Havre has seen 4+ goals (2001-2005) ++ 3 of the past 4 Laval games has seen 4| goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Strasbourg v Vannes - Over 2.5 Goals Betfair - A2 @ 2.3 ++ 2 of the past 2 H2H has seen 3+ goals (2008-2009) ++ 8 of the past 10 Strasbourg games has seen 3+ goals ++ 3 of the past 4 Vannes games has seen 3+ goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Who's the guy in the avatar? Looks slightly familiar... :unsure Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) It'd Wally from the TV Show Where's Wally. The US title is Where's Waldo. There are also a bunch of books where you have to find Wally/Waldo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vedenn Posted October 16, 2009 Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A nice effort. I will be following this thread. Good luck Crouch! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Cheers Vedenn :ok One more for tonight: Lecce v Salernitana - Over 2.5 Goals Sportingbet - A2 @ 2.1 ++ 8 of the past 10 Lecce games has seen 3+ goals ++ 6 of the past 10 Salernitana games has seen 3+ goals Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) 2 of the 4 A2 bets won at 2.00 and 2.52 respectively, so that phase of the day went okay. The sole B2 bet lost. I'll assign stakes to these categories as soon as I find something proportionally appropriate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Not going to have time to type out all the details today I'm afraid Scunthorpe v Sheffield Utd B3 4+ @ 3.75 Betfair B3 5+ @ 7.32 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) League Two A2 - Accrington v Bournemouth - Over 2.5 @ 2.08 Betfair A2 - Dag & Red v Bradford - Over 2.5 @ 1.84 Betfair A2 - Hereford v Chesterfield - Over 2.5 @ 1.94 Betfair A2 - Rotherham v Notts County - Over 2.5 @ 1.89 Betfair B2 - Aldershot v Bury - Over 3.5 @ 3.25 Paddy Power B2 - Crewe v Port Vale - Over 4.5 @ 5.5 Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) League One A2 - Southend v Bristol - Over 2.5 @ 2.02 Betfair A2 - Charlton v Huddersfield - Over 2.5 @ 1.96 Betfair A2 - Yeovil v Carlisle - Over 2.5 @ 2.12 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Championship A2 - Blackpool v Plymouth - Over 2.5 @ 2.00 Betfair A2 - West Brom v Reading - Over 2.5 @ 1.96 Betfair B2 - Doncaster v Barnsley - 4+ @ 4.12 Betfair B2 - Sheffield Wednesday v Coventry - 5+ @ 6.33 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) Premiership A2 Portsmouth v Tottenham - Over 2.5 @ 1.92 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 - Castellon v Betis - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.2 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 - Deportivo v Sevilla - Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02 Betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 17, 2009 Author Share Posted October 17, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) B2 - Montpellier v St Etienne - Over 4.5 Goals @ 9.00 Paddy Power B2 - Valenciennes v Grenoble - Over 4.5 Goals @ 8.50 Paddy Power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 22, 2009 Author Share Posted October 22, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 - Accrington v Bournemouth - Over 2.5 @ 2.08 Betfair LOST A2 - Dag & Red v Bradford - Over 2.5 @ 1.84 Betfair WON A2 - Hereford v Chesterfield - Over 2.5 @ 1.94 Betfair LOST A2 - Rotherham v Notts County - Over 2.5 @ 1.89 Betfair LOST A2 - Southend v Bristol - Over 2.5 @ 2.02 Betfair WON A2 - Charlton v Huddersfield - Over 2.5 @ 1.96 Betfair WON A2 - Yeovil v Carlisle - Over 2.5 @ 2.12 Betfair WON A2 - Blackpool v Plymouth - Over 2.5 @ 2.00 Betfair LOST A2 - West Brom v Reading - Over 2.5 @ 1.96 Betfair WON A2 - Portsmouth v Tottenham - Over 2.5 @ 1.92 WON A2 - Castellon v Betis - Over 2.5 goals @ 2.2 Betfair LOST A2 - Deportivo v Sevilla - Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.02 Betfair LOST B2 - Doncaster v Barnsley - 4+ @ 4.12 Betfair LOST B2 - Sheffield Wednesday v Coventry - 5+ @ 6.33 LOST B2 - Aldershot v Bury - Over 3.5 @ 3.25 Paddy Power WON B2 - Crewe v Port Vale - Over 4.5 @ 5.5 Paddy Power LOST B2 - Montpellier v St Etienne - Over 4.5 Goals @ 9.00 Paddy Power B2 - Valenciennes v Grenoble - Over 4.5 Goals @ 8.50 Paddy Power B3 - Scunthorpe v Sheffield Utd - 4+ @ 3.75 Betfair WON B3 - Scunthorpe v Sheffield Utd - 5+ @ 7.32 Betfair LOST Pretty neutral results in all that took far too much time to research. Going to trim this down, with Over 2.5 restricted to English games, with the odd 7+ goals bet thrown in from Spain and France and Italy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 Watford v Sheffield Wednesday @ 1.98 4 of last 5 H2H @ venue has gone over 4 of last 5 Watford home league games has gone over 3 of last 4 Sheffield Wednesay away league games has gone over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A1 Tottenham v Stoke @ 1.74 Betfair Only recent H2H @ Tottenham was overs All 3 Tottenham home league games have gone over Note 1: Stoke only 1/4 in away league games for over Note 2: Tottenham's last 14 games have gone over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 Peterborough v Scunthorpe @ 1.89 Only recent H2H @ Peterborough went over Scunthorpe 4/6 in away league games this season Peterborough 4/6 in home league games this season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A1 Plymouth v Ipswich @ 2.02 Betfair 3/5 Recent H2H @ Plymouth went over 5/6 Ipswich away league games this season have gone over 3/6 Plymouth home league games this season have gone over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 Huddersfield v Leyton Orient @ 1.89 Betfair 2/4 recent H2H @ Huddersfield have gone over 5/6 Leyton away league games this season have gone over 4/6 Huddersfield home league games this season have gone over Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crouch Potato Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 Re: Following Goal Trends (Trial Phase) A2 Bury v Rotherham @ 2.12 Betfair 2/2 Recent H2H @ Bury have gone over 4/6 Rotherham away league games have gone over 2/6 Bury home league games have gone over Note 1: Bury's last 5 games have seen 17 goals. Would not otherwise have been included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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