Not All Coin-flips are Equal

[billy the punter]

Plenty is discussed on the merits of seeking or avoiding coin-flips in tournament play. Although you have to win a race at some point in order to win a tournament, most decent tournament players will avoid a coin-flip for their entire stack when in a decent position (or early) in a tournament, electing to attempt to “play” their way to a stack and a winning chance.

I’m of the belief that the more skilled you are the less 50/50’s you should seek, why risk your chips when you have an edge over the average entrant. For example in a deep stack tournament I would pass tens during the early levels to a shove, even if I saw the raiser’s hand was AKs.

On the flip side, a weak player should take every race available; his/her chances of cashing solely rely on doubling up through fortune. This is pretty standard theory and something many of you will agree with.

Despite this engrained mindset I’ve recently been thinking about accepting an obvious race that, if you win, can inadvertently lead to greater profits later in the tournament, more than just the pot in question.

During one of the recent festival freezeouts at The International, my table broke and I moved to my new seat with around 19,000 (average around 11,000 at this stage). The table seemed a decent mix, rocks, fish, and a maniac. However three to my left was a player that I believe is a very decent tournament player.

I’ve done my best to remember the finer amount details; I don’t think any mistakes will detract from the point. I’d played an orbit or two and I’d yet to get involved. I think the blinds were 150/300, in middle position I picked up AKo and made it 1200 or thereabouts. The button (the good player mentioned above) re-raised to about 4500, leaving the same behind. I’m behind, although any decent player is capable of a move, it obviously wasn’t the case here, re-raising for half a short(ish) stack means strength.

Now my initial thought was “fold” as it usually is when I think I’m behind (I feel that works for me J), however I was getting around 2/1 on a call or around 6/4 on a shove. Given these circumstances, and the fact I have an average stack if I lost the hand, I didn’t think folding was the play. Obviously I went for the shove instead of the call.

Luckily for me, I hit and outdrew his queens.

I feel I’ve already justified the play but there was another reason why I decided to take the race, and that was the player in question. I’m stating the obvious here, but with every good player that hits the rail, my chances of winning increases, more so than they would if an average player busted, AND being the best player at your table also increases your chance massively.

I saw the player in question and I as the best at the table, now I’m not particularly worried about playing good players, I enjoy and have an inflated opinion of myself anyway, however with him out the way it would open things up for me at the table. I’m not saying I’d have carte blanche but I’d be stealing blinds off lesser players, and my chances of exploiting weakness and taking advantage of favourable situations has almost doubled. Therefore my chip gathering potential increases.

A similar situation arose online this week in the 18k on Betfair. We were down to 3 tables with 18 getting paid. I was around 9^th in chips with an average stack (14k). The player to my immediate left is a decent tournament player, he likes to steal, re-steal and it obviously makes my life a lot tougher with him having position on me. He is arguably a little too loose but definitely without doubt in this situation he hinders my game-play. I limp for 800 in the cut-off with AKo, he raises to 2300 on the button, I shove. Now obviously I had massive fold-equity here but I knew the late limp-re-raise could look like a re-steal with a small pair, so there was a risk of getting called here (more so than if I initially raised), but it was a risk I was prepared to take. There was still fold equity like I say, there was a chance I could get called by AQ, AJ as I played the hand so strangely, and if was called and was racing I was not only 50/50 to win a massive pot, the fellow tricky player was no longer and I can now take a few liberties at the table, and exploit the upcoming bubble time.

He called putting me on a small pair and again my AK outdrew, this time I busted 88.

Winning the hand is irrelevant obviously the key point is the reasoning behind the decision to race.

It seems that not all 50/50’s are equal, your opponent's ability as well as your own should determine your decisions as you can gain a lot more than the pot in question if you get lucky and win your race. If you cover the opponent, how his/her absence affects your chances thereafter is another the factor to the equation.

Be lucky.

[glceud]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

Despite this engrained mindset I’ve recently been thinking about accepting an obvious race that, if you win, can inadvertently lead to greater profits later in the tournament, more than just the pot in question.

Ever heard of harvard referencing;)