Not All Coin-flips are Equal

[billy the punter]

Plenty is discussed on the merits of seeking or avoiding coin-flips in tournament play. Although you have to win a race at some point in order to win a tournament, most decent tournament players will avoid a coin-flip for their entire stack when in a decent position (or early) in a tournament, electing to attempt to “play” their way to a stack and a winning chance.

I’m of the belief that the more skilled you are the less 50/50’s you should seek, why risk your chips when you have an edge over the average entrant. For example in a deep stack tournament I would pass tens during the early levels to a shove, even if I saw the raiser’s hand was AKs.

On the flip side, a weak player should take every race available; his/her chances of cashing solely rely on doubling up through fortune. This is pretty standard theory and something many of you will agree with.

Despite this engrained mindset I’ve recently been thinking about accepting an obvious race that, if you win, can inadvertently lead to greater profits later in the tournament, more than just the pot in question.

During one of the recent festival freezeouts at The International, my table broke and I moved to my new seat with around 19,000 (average around 11,000 at this stage). The table seemed a decent mix, rocks, fish, and a maniac. However three to my left was a player that I believe is a very decent tournament player.

I’ve done my best to remember the finer amount details; I don’t think any mistakes will detract from the point. I’d played an orbit or two and I’d yet to get involved. I think the blinds were 150/300, in middle position I picked up AKo and made it 1200 or thereabouts. The button (the good player mentioned above) re-raised to about 4500, leaving the same behind. I’m behind, although any decent player is capable of a move, it obviously wasn’t the case here, re-raising for half a short(ish) stack means strength.

Now my initial thought was “fold” as it usually is when I think I’m behind (I feel that works for me J), however I was getting around 2/1 on a call or around 6/4 on a shove. Given these circumstances, and the fact I have an average stack if I lost the hand, I didn’t think folding was the play. Obviously I went for the shove instead of the call.

Luckily for me, I hit and outdrew his queens.

I feel I’ve already justified the play but there was another reason why I decided to take the race, and that was the player in question. I’m stating the obvious here, but with every good player that hits the rail, my chances of winning increases, more so than they would if an average player busted, AND being the best player at your table also increases your chance massively.

I saw the player in question and I as the best at the table, now I’m not particularly worried about playing good players, I enjoy and have an inflated opinion of myself anyway, however with him out the way it would open things up for me at the table. I’m not saying I’d have carte blanche but I’d be stealing blinds off lesser players, and my chances of exploiting weakness and taking advantage of favourable situations has almost doubled. Therefore my chip gathering potential increases.

A similar situation arose online this week in the 18k on Betfair. We were down to 3 tables with 18 getting paid. I was around 9^th in chips with an average stack (14k). The player to my immediate left is a decent tournament player, he likes to steal, re-steal and it obviously makes my life a lot tougher with him having position on me. He is arguably a little too loose but definitely without doubt in this situation he hinders my game-play. I limp for 800 in the cut-off with AKo, he raises to 2300 on the button, I shove. Now obviously I had massive fold-equity here but I knew the late limp-re-raise could look like a re-steal with a small pair, so there was a risk of getting called here (more so than if I initially raised), but it was a risk I was prepared to take. There was still fold equity like I say, there was a chance I could get called by AQ, AJ as I played the hand so strangely, and if was called and was racing I was not only 50/50 to win a massive pot, the fellow tricky player was no longer and I can now take a few liberties at the table, and exploit the upcoming bubble time.

He called putting me on a small pair and again my AK outdrew, this time I busted 88.

Winning the hand is irrelevant obviously the key point is the reasoning behind the decision to race.

It seems that not all 50/50’s are equal, your opponent's ability as well as your own should determine your decisions as you can gain a lot more than the pot in question if you get lucky and win your race. If you cover the opponent, how his/her absence affects your chances thereafter is another the factor to the equation.

Be lucky.

[glceud]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

Despite this engrained mindset I’ve recently been thinking about accepting an obvious race that, if you win, can inadvertently lead to greater profits later in the tournament, more than just the pot in question.

Ever heard of harvard referencing;)

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal I'd be snap folding that AKo without a decent read on the player, QQ being pretty much the bottom of his range there (almost all players in the world would shove all-in with AK/AQ/smaller pairs than QQ). Otherwise, an interesting artcile.

[ScottyXS]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I'd be snap folding that AKo without a decent read on the player, QQ being pretty much the bottom of his range there (almost all players in the world would shove all-in with AK/AQ/smaller pairs than QQ). Otherwise, an interesting artcile.

Agreed :clap Good read though Billy

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

Ever heard of harvard referencing;)

I've no idea what that is mate, can you elaborate?

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I'd be snap folding that AKo without a decent read on the player, QQ being pretty much the bottom of his range there (almost all players in the world would shove all-in with AK/AQ/smaller pairs than QQ). Otherwise, an interesting artcile.

Did you not read the reasoning. My initial though was fold, then given the odds, and the fact that I could survive a hit, and the fact that the KO would lead to an easier path to a big stack, I decided to play the hand. That's the reason behind the post, a whole new concept of implied odds if you like.

[glceud]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I've no idea what that is mate' date=' can you elaborate?[/quote'] I was'nt very good in college at it but it involves quoting your sources when putting forward a theory. Your basically just elaborating on what I was saying here. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f62/right-move-89384/index2.html

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I was'nt very good in college at it but it involves quoting your sources when putting forward a theory. Your basically just elaborating on what I was saying here. http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f62/right-move-89384/index2.html

This isn't about the mere decision to accept races based on ability or dynamics, I've been writing pieces (elsewhere) for years on that. Posted two on here about a year ago, one called The Mathmatical Approach, which I posted elsewhere about 3 years ago. As you did in those posts it talks about the timing of the gamble, it's benefits and pitfalls, the play to cash or to win arguement. Here I'm talking about something very different and much more complex, the ability of the opponent should come into it. In the live hand I spoke of above I'm more likely to fold against a poorer player. I'm saying the risk of the race is more worthy vs a decent opponent, not only to build a MTT-winning stack, but you knock out a true rival - your chances of winning that MTT increases (as a favourite is out), plus you now have free-reign at your table. You can start to take liberties as you are now the only pro sitting there. If I was already the only pro at the table and surrounding by fish I would not have taken the race - I will get the chips by "playing" (hopefully!) There is no mention of this line of thinking in your posts. :ok ps you also talk on range in your posts, this isn't about range, this is NOT about being in front with AK.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

Did you not read the reasoning. My initial though was fold' date=' then given the odds, and the fact that I could survive a hit, and the fact that the KO would lead to an easier path to a big stack, I decided to play the hand. That's the reason behind the post, a whole new concept of implied odds if you like.[/quote'] I read the reasoning, and agree with it in some circumstances however. QQ v AK is actually 56-44. If his range is QQ,KK or AA (which it probably is over 90% of the time) v AK it's 68-32. If you know he has QQ it's probably worth it for the future benefits, but with a range of QQ, KK, AA, it's probably isn't.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal And please don't say range doesn't come into it. Future considerations are obviously important, but you still have to take into consideration what cards he could be holding.

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I read the reasoning, and agree with it in some circumstances however. QQ v AK is actually 56-44. If his range is QQ,KK or AA (which it probably is over 90% of the time) v AK it's 68-32. If you know he has QQ it's probably worth it for the future benefits, but with a range of QQ, KK, AA, it's probably isn't.

I've played this player many times over a 10 year period I'd say, at many different venues and at many different games - cash and tournaments. When reraising in this way I'm confident his range is TT, JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AKo, AKs. For arguments sake I had AsKd TcTs TcTh TcTd TsTh TsTd ThTd JcJs JcJh JcJd JsJh JsTd JhJd QcQs QcQh QcQd QsQh QsQd QhQd KcKs KcKh KsKh AcAh AcAd AhAd AcKc AcKs AcKh AdKc AdKs AdKh AhKc AhKs AhKh AdKc AdKs AdKh 36 possible hands there. I'm dead to 6 of them. The odds alone (6/4) are arguably enough to call? Given the added bonus I speak of, I think it was correct play.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal If that's the range you'd put him on then it is 60-40 in his favour, in which case you're play is pretty much zero EV short term, and you obviously have the long term equity (ie getting rid of the player) in your favour, which makes the play acceptable to good. I personally would disagree with that range as people generally shove that stack size with anything worse than QQ online. If you're telling me people make that play with TT, JJ and AK in live games then I need to start playing live more, as that's pretty shocking play by them

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

If that's the range you'd put him on then it is 60-40 in his favour, in which case you're play is pretty much zero EV short term, and you obviously have the long term equity (ie getting rid of the player) in your favour, which makes the play acceptable to good. I personally would disagree with that range as people generally shove that stack size with anything worse than QQ online. If you're telling me people make that play with TT, JJ and AK in live games then I need to start playing live more, as that's pretty shocking play by them

Dave I don't want to continually sound derogatory, I actually enjoy our little debates, BUT only you would disagree with me on a player's range that I personally have played with many times over ten years - a player who you don't even know. How ridiculous does that sound? Think about it. What should he be doing with TT, JJ and AK, in your opinion? He is a pro tournament player btw.

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal By the way, I'm describing his play vs a raise from ME.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal I didn't read the part about you having played with him for 10 years. But having seen your latest post, if he's a pro player and plays TT/JJ/AK like that, I'd like to see how bad the fish are. Shoving with AK/JJ/TT with the stack size and your raise is just standard. AA/KK/QQ should be played in the same way really, because by 3x-ing, most players just turn their hand face up. The worst option - Raising 3x with AA/KK/QQ, shoving with others The best option - Shoving with any of them The middle option - What he did, but still not great.

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I didn't read the part about you having played with him for 10 years. But having seen your latest post, if he's a pro player and plays TT/JJ/AK like that, I'd like to see how bad the fish are. Shoving with AK/JJ/TT with the stack size and your raise is just standard. AA/KK/QQ should be played in the same way really, because by 3x-ing, most players just turn their hand face up. The worst option - Raising 3x with AA/KK/QQ, shoving with others The best option - Shoving with any of them The middle option - What he did, but still not great.

Standard. Standard? Why is standard correct? Most people play standard, most people lose long term. He thinks I'm pretty loose and would have my range as huge. Therefore he may only reraise (not shove) with usually vunerable hands such as JJ, TT, AK. He may price me in with my potentially average hand, smaller ace etc. When the class of opponent rises the level of thinking should too. Standard play/thinking will never get you that far. I'm sure even you will agree with me on that one.

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal Anyway, I don't really think the discussion of how the guy play this particular hand is really that important - the point from this post (which I repeat, I agree with) is that it's worth taking flips if the player you could KO is a serious threat.

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

Anyway' date=' I don't really think the discussion of how the guy play this particular hand is really that important - the point from this post (which I repeat, I agree with) is that it's worth taking flips if the player you could KO is a serious threat.[/quote'] I agree. ;)

[deadlydaveLDN]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

Standard. Standard? Why is standard correct? Most people play standard, most people lose long term. He thinks I'm pretty loose and would have my range as huge. Therefore he may only reraise (not shove) with usually vunerable hands such as JJ, TT, AK. He may price me in with my potentially average hand, smaller ace etc. When the class of opponent rises the level of thinking should too. Standard play/thinking will never get you that far. I'm sure even you will agree with me on that one.

I agree, but I just think he's making a terrible play. So he does that with TT and you call with some random hand. Flop comes with an overcard and you shove, what's he gonna do there? He commits half his stack and puts himself in a horrible flop spot. If he thinks your range is huge, then not only should he be shoving with these hands, he should be shoving with a large range of junk too. BTW, if I say standard that refers to standard amongst decent players, obv most players lose.

[billy the punter]

Re: Not All Coin-flips are Equal

I agree, but I just think he's making a terrible play. So he does that with TT and you call with some random hand. Flop comes with an overcard and you shove, what's he gonna do there? He commits half his stack and puts himself in a horrible flop spot. If he thinks your range is huge, then not only should he be shoving with these hands, he should be shoving with a large range of junk too. BTW, if I say standard that refers to standard amongst decent players, obv most players lose.

Yeah possibly, but only if he is BB, in this scenario he has the SB, BB and a limper to worry about. Like you say, we're drifting from the point here anyway. :ok