1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Hi, 1qmike..... I have to say, I admire your persistence...... it must be a bit frustrating when nobody contributes to your thread. I think the basic problem is that you are throwing so much information at us that it is sometimes difficult to appreciate exactly what you are trying to tell us. A word of advice (if you don't mind).... try to keep it simple... for simple minds. like mine ;) Hi Grex, Thx for advice...i will try to keep it simple :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor For example, i parse all infos for my game, and my excel gives me this table: from 1 to 89 are the systems... so explication: System 3 bets 5.89$ on Cork City at -0.25 @2.13 .. System 89 bets 9.60$ on Cork City at -0.25 @2.13 BUT, yesterday i spent all day to backtrack all systems [1...89] on this days: Sat 03.10 Sun 04.10 Tue 29.10 Mon 28.10 Sun 27.10 Sat 26.10 And the results are this: STAKED PROFIT % PROFIT SYSTEM $ 586.36 $105.65 18.018% 22 $ 608.83 $98.16 16.122% 28 $ 601.63 $98.11 16.308% 25 $ 547.08 $78.72 14.390% 75 $ 554.03 $79.54 14.357% 78 $ 546.54 £71.18 13.023% 72 $ 628.97 £70.33 11.181% 18 Systems 22,28,25,75,78,72 are doing great in backtrack, and i will try to test them in future (or more backtrack days). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Now i will do another raport, from 0 stacked , 0 profit to days: 2.10.2009 1.10.2009 to see how this 'good' systems handle without profit of other days. [on their own]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor From Friday 02.10 I still have to backtrack this leagues: Irland Div1 Irland Premier Italy B Holland B Holland A Poland Port Rom Singa Turkey Hungary i teste only half of friday and it's not so good: $ (18.71) $ 71.20 -26% profit / stacked / profit% now i go to driving school continue with all friday+thursday when i come back. later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Friday Complete: Thursday Uefa cUp etc no games to test. AH U/O TOTAL STAKED € 141.94 € 114.36 € 256.30 PROFIT € (32.50) € 42.91 $ 10.42 % -23% 38% 4% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Today bet: Tigre Victoria - : - Huracán 2.38 3.19 2.73 Tigre -0.25 @2.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 7, 2009 Author Share Posted October 7, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I will wait and test it this weekend, because backtrack is ok but i lack in real time :) So i will come back tomorrow or friday. later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 9, 2009 Author Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor i am very busy this period with my life... i will continue work maybe next weekend.. i don't give up yet..YET :d. later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maiky16 Posted October 10, 2009 Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor ok man, looks interesting, can u send me ur sheets on my e-mail [email protected] i want to see them, i'm working on the same projects like u, over/under goalz predictions. Still waitin :) Good luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 10, 2009 Author Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I WILL CONTACT YOU ON YOUR E-MAIL. OK FINAL TEST TODAY..I THINK I WILL GIVE UP IF I LOOSE TODAY, BECAUSE I WILL GET MYSELF LOST IN NUMBERS :)) Yeovil 0 @2.00 _ 5$ Swindon 0, -0.5 @2.025 _ 16$ Bournemouth -0.5 @2.00 _ 2$ Aldershot -0.5 @2.00 _ 4$ Ross County 0 @2.025 _ 20$ Albion 0, -0.5 @2.125 _ 6$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 10, 2009 Author Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I WILL CONTACT YOU ON YOUR E-MAIL. OK FINAL TEST TODAY..I THINK I WILL GIVE UP IF I LOOSE TODAY, BECAUSE I WILL GET MYSELF LOST IN NUMBERS :)) Yeovil 0 @2.00 _ 5$ Swindon 0, -0.5 @2.025 _ 16$ Bournemouth -0.5 @2.00 _ 2$ Aldershot -0.5 @2.00 _ 4$ Ross County 0 @2.025 _ 20$ Albion 0, -0.5 @2.125 _ 6$ Yeovil VOID SWINDON LOST HALF ( -8$ ) BOURNEMOUTH LOST FULL ( -2$ ) ALDERSHOT WIN FULL ( +4$ ) ROSS COUNTY WIN FULL ( +20$ ) ALBION LOST HALF ( -3$ ) TOTAL = +11$ :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Okey..another big test today:notworthy Team Handicap Odd Stake Sassuolo -0.5 1.825 43 Empoli AC -0.75 2.025 34 Sokolov Baník -0.25 1.775 27 Mjällby -0.25 1.85 12.5 Ascoli 0.25 2 9.2 Modena 1 1.925 9 Cittadella 0.25 1.75 8 Ancona -0.5 2.1 5.3 Karviná FC -0.5 2.05 4.3 Gallipoli 0.75 2.05 4.2 PK-35 Helsinki 0.5 2.05 3.6 Kiisto Vaasa 1.5 1.775 3.2 Sparta Sarpsborg 0 2.025 3.2 Notodden 0.25 1.925 2.6 Hämeenlinna 1.5 1.8 2.3 Hvidovre Kobenhavn 0.5 2.1 2.3 Lov Ham 1 2.05 2.3 Stavanger IF 0.75 2 2 Torquay 1.25 1.95 2 Sirius 1.25 1.775 1.7 Opava 0.75 1.9 1.7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 11, 2009 Author Share Posted October 11, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor NO F ING COMMENT :@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@:@ Team Handicap Odd Stake RESULT PROFIT € (57.23) Sassuolo -0.5 1.825 43 LFULL -43 Sokolov Baník -0.25 1.775 27 LHALF -13.5 Mjällby -0.25 1.85 12.5 LFULL -12.5 Ascoli 0.25 2 9.2 WHALF 4.6 Modena 1 1.925 9 WFULL 8.325 Cittadella 0.25 1.75 8 0-1 '19 Karviná FC -0.5 2.05 4.3 LFULL -4.3 PK-35 Helsinki 0.5 2.05 3.6 LFULL -3.6 Kiisto Vaasa 1.5 1.775 3.2 WFULL 2.48 Sparta Sarpsborg 0 2.025 3.2 WFULL 3.28 Notodden 0.25 1.925 2.6 WFULL 2.405 Hämeenlinna 1.5 1.8 2.3 LFULL -2.3 Hvidovre Kobenhavn 0.5 2.1 2.3 WFULL 2.53 Lov Ham 1 2.05 2.3 VOID 0 Stavanger IF 0.75 2 2 LHALF -1 Torquay 1.25 1.95 2 WFULL 1.9 Sirius 1.25 1.775 1.7 LFULL -1.7 Opava 0.75 1.9 1.7 LHALF -0.85 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 13, 2009 Author Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor YOU GUYS THOUGHT I GIVE UP BUT I DON'T :drums ok..i am working on something new now. i just spent yesterday + half today to read articles (how to bet soccer, etc, soccer betting tricks etc and i just recieved an ideea :D:D:D :nana) ok but this is the last try...i promise:hope I WILL SOME WORK THIS DAYS, BUT I WANT TO MAKE LIKE 50 SYSTEMS AGAIN...TEST THEM ON 50-75 BACKTRACKING GAMES THAT I HAVE SAVED THEM. AT THE END I WILL WATCH FOR ( REALLY --- PROFIT ) OR (rEALLY ++++ PROFIT). SO IF I HAVE ONE WITH -50% PROFIT, I WILL USE IT FOR COUNTER. (BET AGAINST HIM). IF I HAVE A 50% PROFIT:notworthy:notworthy:notworthy , YOU ALL KNOW WHAT I WILL DO. OK.BACK TO DEVELOP. LET'S WISH ME LUCK :cheers:cheers:cheers LATER' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 13, 2009 Share Posted October 13, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Hi, 1qmike..... I have to say, I admire your persistence...... it must be a bit frustrating when nobody contributes to your thread. I think the basic problem is that you are throwing so much information at us that it is sometimes difficult to appreciate exactly what you are trying to tell us. A word of advice (if you don't mind).... try to keep it simple... for simple minds. like mine ;) Would like to repeat what Grex said. Too bad for so much effort to go unnoticed :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor offtopic-_-Just got home from driving lessons:wall me bad driver.:@ It's not frustrating when nobody post here :D. I like to see this as my own journal :ok if i use notepad or smth i will loose some data, here i post it to see it later, if you guys understand, if not sorry ;) i got another formulas and other variables and i have to test it to my saved games, and that will take some time. I think tonight i will have a good view over it. If i got something that is on profit + (that i doubt :rollin), i will continue with it (dooh :) ). If i got something that is on profit - - -, i will continue with betting against that system, so i can force negative profit, to positive profite. I start check the saved games, i will post again tonight later. Later :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor http://www.2shared.com/file/8426605/a8dab7d7/partialTest2Days.html The sheet with Partial Results that i have parsed until now. It's good that i have a really black sheep with really negative profit, and i have something with positive profit too, SO FAR... I will continue with test it futher. I just did calculus only for profit Units, i want to add Profit % (Staked / Profit only) to my sheet. Anyway, i will post later other results too. GoodDay!:nana Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I though will be easier to test it, but i takes me so long. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Ok, i do calclus very hard, because are 64 systems to track with 3 different filters [192 / game :lol:lol ] Test for 3 Days Backtracking: WITHOUT ANY FILTER [ BETTING ALL ] bestSystem = +14% worstSystem = -51% WITH Filter-1 I have 2 systems with 100% (but only 2 bets in 3 days, so.... i exclude it until i get more data) bestSystem= +37% worstSystem = -43% WITH FILTER-2 Here is the good part: bestSystem = +89% [with +PROFIT each day] I have like 10-15 systems with 60-89% profit, but i need more data to see which one adapts better. Same as above, i have 2 systems with -100% profit, but with only 3 bets in 3 days [need more data] worstSystem = -79% Conclusion: I like the way i am heading too. I just need more data-mining to see wich systems adapts better. Games for test i have plenty, time..hmm..i'll get some :) ok.. i go take a shower and back to test more to see whick system is "KING OF THE HILL" :D later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 14, 2009 Author Share Posted October 14, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Ok. After 5 days of backtesting. I will do other categories: - - -Systems that stacked in 5 days over 100 units. Staked - Profit - PROFIT (%) 267$ - 117$ - +44% 184$ - 95$ - +51% 168$ - 78$ - +46% 131$ - 72$ - +55% 128$ - 72$ - +56% [This is TOP PROFIT % in this Category] - - -Systems that stacked in 5 days between 75-100 units. 89$ - 52$ - +58% [Top profit in this category.] 89$ - 36$ - +36% - - -Systems that stacked in 5 days under 75units, descending profit %. 33$ - 30$ - 90% 33$ - 28$ - 86% 31$ - 26$ - 85% 43$ - 37$ - 86% 46$ - 40$ - 86% 54$ - 44$ - 82% 57$ - 47$ - 82% So i have many many many systems still in race after 5 days backtrack. I will do more, but i think i will post results tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor After 195 games backtracking. I jus track Filter 3 because Filter 1 and Filter 2 had the intervals of + , - (-19% ~ +15% ). Betting using Filter Method 3. Still 40 systems with profit between 40-60% but with different stake size. ;) I have to reach 300-400 games so one system can be in top. Now i can't see which one is better... Maybe tonight i reach 300-400. Later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted October 15, 2009 Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Mate you seem to be doing an awful lot of data mining. That is back testing through random variable trying to spot patterns. There patterns are unlikely to continue in the future unless you have sound logic and reasoning behind them. Hope you know what you are doing but it looks impressive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor hi muppet77, Well, let me make u understand. I diden't use a couple of games to make a pattern, than to test it on same games to make profit :). There patterns are unlikely to continue in the future unless you have sound logic and reasoning behind them. True, in past i used some patterns based on 10-20 games, after test it on 100 other games (-% profit allways), that's why i stopped looking for patterns. Well if i analyze my system rules, it have some logic...BUT i had some other system that failed after were on +profit, so i can't say anything else now, but i am really happy with results until here. 195 tracked games is not few, but still i can't see an system that wins, still 35-40 are in race for top3. My target is at least 300 tracked games. I just did my coffe and i will start test other games. BTW, thx for post. Later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I kept systems 2F4 - 2F5 - 3F4 - 3F5 + i made other 6 systems based on this 4 , with some changed variables. Now i want to test a random weekend. I am at Saturday Day , Letter E [ England Confference ]. After this weekend i will show results, to see what's up. Later':hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor AFTER HALF SATURDAY ALL GAMES BETTING: 2F45 , 52$ - 12$ - 23% 3F4 , 41$ - 13$ - 31% 3F5 , 49$ - 15$ - 30% [new]3F7ATG , 36$ - 15$ - 40% [new]5F7ATG , 36$ - 14$ - 41% [new]6F8OTGM , 31$ - 14$ - 45% Other new systems based on 3F5-2F45-3F4, are in range of 17% - 30%. Only one system from new ones is negative with -1.35% profit. Anyway the new systems are 85%-90% based on 3F5,3F4,2F45 that's why are all with profit. I go eat something and continue with the other day of Saturday. Later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor OTHER HALF OF SATURDAY: 2F45 , 58$ - 18$ - 30% 3F4 , 27$ - 0.05$ - 0-1% 3F5 , 68$ - 38$ - 53% :D [new]3F7ATG , 85$ - 32$ - 37% [new]5F7ATG , 88$ - 40$ - 45% [new]6F8OTGM , 23$ - 7$ - 29% TOP Saturday [all leagues all games betting]: [new]6F7ATG , 128$ - 60$ - 47% [new]5F5 , 123$ - 56$ - 46% 3F5 , 116$ - 51$ - 44% [new]5F7ATG , 123$ - 54$ - 44% [new]BF5 , 112$ - 45$ - 40% OLD 3F5 KEEPS UP... :clap THE OTHERS LOOK GREAT TOO. Ok...now i go for Sunday too... I will post results in a hour or two. Later' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted October 15, 2009 Author Share Posted October 15, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I diden't start to do calculus for Sunday yet... Because i wanted to count W-L-Strike Rate for each system that is in top for Saturday. Here are the results: [new]6F7ATG , 128$ - 60$ - 47% [new]6F7ATG 3W-2L-[66.66% STRIKE] [new]5F5 , 123$ - 56$ - 46% [new]5F5 16W-6L-[72.73% STRIKE] 3F5 , 116$ - 51$ - 44% 3F5 15W-5L-[75.00% STRIKE] ;) ;) [new]5F7ATG , 123$ - 54$ - 44% [new]5F7ATG 4W-4L-[50.00% STRIKE] [new]BF5 , 112$ - 45$ - 40% [new]BF5 15W-5L-[75.00% STRIKE] ;) ;) Strike rate is at odd of 1.95-2.00 1 / ( MEDIAN(1.95,2.00) ) = 51% Expected Strike Rate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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