Poisson Goals Predictor

[1qmike]

hi i am tryin' to find value games with poisson goals method. now i developed like 4 formulas so i can get goals for team a, and goals for team b. and i wanna' use them on today soccer games. Now my system prediction for a game looks like this:

Dinamo Kiev	100%	79%	86%	86%
suggested odd	1.0	1.3	1.2	1.2
DRAW	0%	11%	11%	11%
suggested odd	15079.0	8.9	9.4	9.2
Zorya Luhansk	0%	9%	3%	3%
suggested odd	59273.4	10.6	33.8	32.6
Dinamo Kiev	12	4	3	3
Zorya Luhansk	1	1	0	0
TOTAL GOALS	13	5	3	3
HANDICAP FOR HOME	-12	-2	-2	-2

In Columns are from left to right formula1,formula2,formula3,formula4. Formula 1 is a wierd ideea of mine, but problem is that it gives many 100%, but i wanna track it too. I have to work at all predictions now. What's the best kelly method to use so i can cover myself from fast BankRupt? I can't use full kelly on 100% because it's big fail :) (formula 1).

[1qmike]

Re: Poisson Goals Predictor min 80' 0-0 My predictior was like this:

Newcastle	11%	31%	26%	22%
suggested odd	9.1	3.2	3.8	4.5
DRAW	13%	21%	31%	30%
suggested odd	8.0	4.8	3.2	3.3
Perth Glory	76%	48%	42%	47%
suggested odd	1.3	2.1	2.4	2.1
Newcastle	1	2	1	1
Perth Glory	3	2	1	1
TOTAL GOALS	5	4	2	2
HANDICAP FOR HOME	2	0	0	0