1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Share Posted September 25, 2009 hi i am tryin' to find value games with poisson goals method. now i developed like 4 formulas so i can get goals for team a, and goals for team b. and i wanna' use them on today soccer games. Now my system prediction for a game looks like this: Dinamo Kiev 100% 79% 86% 86% suggested odd 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 DRAW 0% 11% 11% 11% suggested odd 15079.0 8.9 9.4 9.2 Zorya Luhansk 0% 9% 3% 3% suggested odd 59273.4 10.6 33.8 32.6 Dinamo Kiev 12 4 3 3 Zorya Luhansk 1 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 13 5 3 3 HANDICAP FOR HOME -12 -2 -2 -2 In Columns are from left to right formula1,formula2,formula3,formula4. Formula 1 is a wierd ideea of mine, but problem is that it gives many 100%, but i wanna track it too. I have to work at all predictions now. What's the best kelly method to use so i can cover myself from fast BankRupt? I can't use full kelly on 100% because it's big fail :) (formula 1). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor min 80' 0-0 My predictior was like this: Newcastle 11% 31% 26% 22% suggested odd 9.1 3.2 3.8 4.5 DRAW 13% 21% 31% 30% suggested odd 8.0 4.8 3.2 3.3 Perth Glory 76% 48% 42% 47% suggested odd 1.3 2.1 2.4 2.1 Newcastle 1 2 1 1 Perth Glory 3 2 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 5 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 2 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor min 15' 0-0 Predictor.. Home United 99% 63% 65% 67% suggested odd 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 DRAW 1% 19% 25% 25% suggested odd 119.8 5.4 4.0 4.1 Woodlands Wellington 0% 19% 9% 9% suggested odd 343.9 5.3 10.6 11.2 Home United 7 2 2 2 Woodlands Wellington 1 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 7 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME -6 -1 -1 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor 16:00 Sliven 3% 19% 9% 10% suggested odd 39.8 5.2 11.2 9.9 DRAW 5% 18% 22% 24% suggested odd 18.4 5.5 4.5 4.3 Lokomotiva Sofia 92% 63% 69% 66% suggested odd 1.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 Sliven 1 1 0 0 Lokomotiva Sofia 4 3 2 2 TOTAL GOALS 5 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 3 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Zlín 34% 44% 45% 36% suggested odd 2.9 2.3 2.2 2.8 DRAW 20% 22% 32% 34% suggested odd 5.1 4.6 3.1 2.9 Vlašim 46% 34% 23% 30% suggested odd 2.2 2.9 4.4 3.3 Zlín 2 2 1 1 Vlašim 2 2 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 4 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 0 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Dukla Praha FK 100% 53% 52% 61% suggested odd 1.0 1.9 1.9 1.6 DRAW 0% 22% 38% 32% suggested odd 18680.8 4.6 2.7 3.1 Vítkovice 0% 25% 10% 7% suggested odd 82501.5 4.0 9.6 14.9 Dukla Praha FK 12 2 1 1 Vítkovice 0 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 13 3 1 1 HANDICAP FOR HOME -12 -1 -1 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Gabona Trans-Kaposvár 1% 15% 8% 6% suggested odd 116.4 6.7 13.2 15.5 DRAW 3% 18% 26% 24% suggested odd 29.2 5.5 3.9 4.2 Debrecen 96% 67% 67% 70% suggested odd 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 Gabona Trans-Kaposvár 0 1 0 0 Debrecen 4 2 1 2 TOTAL GOALS 4 3 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 4 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Rubin Kazan 96% 64% 67% 68% suggested odd 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.5 DRAW 3% 19% 24% 24% suggested odd 35.4 5.3 4.1 4.2 Amkar Perm 1% 17% 9% 8% suggested odd 102.8 5.8 11.6 11.9 Rubin Kazan 5 2 2 2 Amkar Perm 1 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 5 3 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME -4 -1 -1 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Berlin Union 100% 76% 80% 83% suggested odd 1.0 1.3 1.3 1.2 DRAW 0% 14% 17% 15% suggested odd 9641239.9 6.9 5.8 6.7 Ahlen LR 0% 10% 3% 2% suggested odd 550.8 10.0 35.2 44.7 Berlin Union 18 3 2 2 Ahlen LR 0 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 19 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME -18 -2 -2 -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Oberhausen 28% 42% 44% 35% suggested odd 3.5 2.4 2.3 2.8 DRAW 18% 19% 28% 29% suggested odd 5.7 5.1 3.5 3.4 Duisburg 54% 39% 27% 35% suggested odd 1.9 2.6 3.7 2.8 Oberhausen 2 2 1 1 Duisburg 3 2 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 5 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 1 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Cottbus 100% 60% 66% 72% suggested odd 1.0 1.7 1.5 1.4 DRAW 0% 16% 24% 21% suggested odd 156296.6 6.2 4.1 4.9 FSV Frankfurt 0% 24% 10% 7% suggested odd 2360.0 4.1 9.8 13.6 Cottbus 17 3 2 2 FSV Frankfurt 1 2 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 18 5 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME -16 -1 -1 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Dinamo Kiev 100% 79% 86% 86% suggested odd 1.0 1.3 1.2 1.2 DRAW 0% 11% 11% 11% suggested odd 15079.0 8.9 9.4 9.2 Zorya Luhansk 0% 9% 3% 3% suggested odd 59273.4 10.6 33.8 32.6 Dinamo Kiev 12 4 3 3 Zorya Luhansk 1 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 13 5 3 3 HANDICAP FOR HOME -12 -2 -2 -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor HNK Zagreb 0% 12% 3% 5% suggested odd 1689.4 8.5 34.0 20.7 DRAW 0% 17% 17% 23% suggested odd 403.7 5.8 5.8 4.3 HNK Sibenik 100% 71% 80% 72% suggested odd 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 HNK Zagreb 0 1 0 0 HNK Sibenik 8 2 2 2 TOTAL GOALS 8 3 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 7 2 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Austria Wien (Am.) 100% 62% 63% 58% suggested odd 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.7 DRAW 0% 18% 29% 33% suggested odd 581.7 5.7 3.4 3.0 Hartberg TSV 0% 20% 7% 9% suggested odd 1471.5 4.9 13.8 10.7 Austria Wien (Am.) 10 3 1 1 Hartberg TSV 1 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 11 4 2 1 HANDICAP FOR HOME -9 -1 -1 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Austria Lustenau 33% 44% 60% 43% suggested odd 3.0 2.3 1.7 2.3 DRAW 20% 19% 24% 29% suggested odd 5.0 5.3 4.2 3.5 Austria Salzburg (Am.) 47% 37% 16% 29% suggested odd 2.1 2.7 6.1 3.5 Austria Lustenau 2 2 2 1 Austria Salzburg (Am.) 2 2 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 4 5 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 0 0 -1 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor SC Rheindorf Altach 53% 43% 38% 40% suggested odd 1.9 2.3 2.6 2.5 DRAW 18% 19% 29% 29% suggested odd 5.6 5.2 3.5 3.5 Vienna 29% 37% 33% 31% suggested odd 3.5 2.7 3.0 3.2 SC Rheindorf Altach 3 2 1 1 Vienna 2 2 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 5 5 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME -1 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Tirol Innsbruck 99% 72% 83% 71% suggested odd 1.0 1.4 1.2 1.4 DRAW 1% 16% 14% 23% suggested odd 123.3 6.4 7.1 4.4 Dornbirn FC 0% 12% 3% 6% suggested odd 369.7 8.4 35.9 16.9 Tirol Innsbruck 7 3 2 2 Dornbirn FC 1 1 0 0 TOTAL GOALS 7 4 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME -6 -2 -2 -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor FC Gratkorn 35% 37% 25% 29% suggested odd 2.9 2.7 4.0 3.5 DRAW 25% 22% 34% 34% suggested odd 3.9 4.5 3.0 2.9 FC Lustenau 40% 41% 41% 37% suggested odd 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.7 FC Gratkorn 1 2 1 1 FC Lustenau 1 2 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 3 3 2 2 HANDICAP FOR HOME 0 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Jihlava 88% 47% 25% 41% suggested odd 1.1 2.1 4.1 2.4 DRAW 8% 24% 40% 40% suggested odd 11.9 4.1 2.5 2.5 Opava 3% 29% 36% 19% suggested odd 29.2 3.5 2.8 5.3 Jihlava 3 2 1 1 Opava 1 1 1 0 TOTAL GOALS 4 3 1 1 HANDICAP FOR HOME -3 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Unirea Valahorum Urziceni 50% 41% 36% 36% suggested odd 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.8 DRAW 27% 27% 41% 41% suggested odd 3.7 3.6 2.4 2.4 Astra Ploiesti 23% 32% 23% 23% suggested odd 4.3 3.2 4.4 4.3 Unirea Valahorum Urziceni 1 1 1 1 Astra Ploiesti 1 1 1 1 TOTAL GOALS 2 2 1 1 HANDICAP FOR HOME -1 0 0 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Ferencvárosi TC 1% 21% 23% 13% suggested odd 103.1 4.9 4.3 7.5 DRAW 2% 15% 26% 22% suggested odd 46.4 6.5 3.8 4.6 Fc Fehérvár 97% 64% 51% 65% suggested odd 1.0 1.6 2.0 1.5 Ferencvárosi TC 1 2 1 1 Fc Fehérvár 6 3 2 2 TOTAL GOALS 7 5 2 3 HANDICAP FOR HOME 5 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Others are from 21:00, i will do calculus for them later... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor I will not post tables with % anymore. I did them all on my excel and did calculus for stakes (Based on kelly criteria). I will post Formula X [Home / Away] Bets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Not the results that i expected but ..:@ I will post the profit from what i staked on each category. Formula 1: Home bets: -23% Away bets: -7% Formula 2: Home bets: -9% Away bets: -6% Formula 3: Home bets: -23% Away bets +15% :unsure Formula 4: Home bets: -22% Away bets: +7% :unsure vverryy bad :| Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Poisson Goals Predictor Ok.After some hours last night, i found a method to win [history] using formula 1 picks in a special way. I don't wanna continue with F3-Away bets or F4-Awat bets because i don't like 15% profit in 100000000 bets or 7% profit in 100000 bets. I am for the big jackpot seek. Ok, using this stacking method worked like a charm yesterday, and using it in 1 week backtesting same. Now the big test will be today, in future. I have picks on papper, i will put them in a doc and write them here later. First games start in 13minute at 13:00 [gmt+2]. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1qmike Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.