nkdz Posted September 20, 2009 Share Posted September 20, 2009 I was thinking about it a lot and started testing it this wednesday on my own excel program. We basically need to consider few important factors when taking such bet; *Team A's defensive and team B's offensive quality overall *form of both teams *injuries on both sides *importance of the match for both teams *who do you expect to dominate *their most recent results and most recent h2h's. to be more specific, in todays football its completely irrelevant to take some match played 3 years ago into consideration cause team oftenly change coaches and styles nowadays *weather conditions, and do you expect low scoring or high scoring match *anything else what might help you in estimating probability of such bet. I tought that it would be a lot more efficient if we could set our own odds before looking at those set by the bookies. If they offer more than we would, than this bet is worth of trying. Depending on that difference, we should have three(or more) staking levels. Bigger difference we have, higher stakes we use. I'm very curious how will that work, and i would like to share it to you here, so if it's ok i'll give it a try. Few more things; I'll use virtual bankroll of let say 500€. Highest stake will be 30€, medium 20€ and lowest 10€. Odds will be taken from various bookmakers cause not all of them are offering such bets and some of them are offering only top leagues. I think that 50-60 bets/month are enough to get a real picture of this system and to keep high criterias of selection at the same time. I reccomend you not to follow it with real money yet, untill we see how is it working on longer period. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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