Wiltshire Shot Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 I've been working on a system that looks at making a profit from the Anytime Goalscorer market. It assumes that stats can be used to predict how regularly someone will hit the net, then compared with bookmaker prices to see where the bookies have got it wrong. For example, if I reckon a player has a 60% chance of scoring but the bookies are offering evens, then I should have a 10% chance of making a profit. I trialled an early version for the last few months of last sesson and came away with a very, very small profit (I'd have been better off keeping my money in a low interest bank account!) but I reckon that I've improved the staking systen now, so it's a 'real life' system, but with very low stakes at this stage. I'm looking at data for the top five dive divisions in England, plus the top division in each of Germany, Holland, Spain, Italy and France, starting with ten units in each - 100 in total. I don't have time to analyse every fixture and every player, so I'm only looking at teams that are more likely to score - top half sides at home to bottom half sides. Time reasons might also mean I have to drop some of the more profitable leagues. I assume concentrating on the lower leagues will be more profitable as the bookies don't know them as well - but in last season's test for some reason it was Holland that came out top! In those teams, I look for players who score 40% or more. I award one goal for each home game they score in, plus half a goal for a second or sebsequent goal in each game (so two goals in a game would be 1.5, a hat trick 2, etc). This is so that stats aren't skewed by a player hitting a hatful against the bottom club, for example. So, a player with six goals in ten games (home only) scores 60%, so the stats make me assume he has a 60% chance of scoring in his next game. As I'm only looking at games against clubs in the bottom half, the actual chance of scoring is probably slightly greater. The stats obviousy become more reliable after more games, so I don't look at the system until a club has played five home games. So, if our player with a 60% chance of scoring is offered at evens (50%) by bookies, I have a 10% advantage, and I'll put 10x0.1 units on. I only put money on when I'm up by 10% or more, as I want to stay away from borderline value. At least, that's the theory... Last season's testing showed the main problem to be a player starting on the bench and then getting a couple of minutes at the end (can be overcome by waiting for team news - but not always practical as I want to get to matches!). I also need to come up with some sort of weighting for the number of likely goals in a game (if the game is likely to be under 2.5 goals, then I'd be better off betting on 1st goalscorer rather than anytime scorer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 16, 2009 Author Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Most Blue Square Premier teams have now played five home games. The system turns up two players who fit all criteria for Saturday's matches: * Playing at home * Top half v bottom half * (Statistically) undervalued by bookies * Scoring rate of 40% or more Holroyd (Cambridge, v Wrexham) - 3 goals in 5 games = 60% Odds 11/10 (Bet365) = 48% So stake is 1.2 units. Barnes-Homer (Kidderminster, v Gateshead) - 3 goals in 5 games =60% Odds 5/4 (Bet365) = 44% So stake is 1.6 units I particularly like Barnes-Homer, but I'm not so sure about Holroyd as Wrexham don't concede many, but I'll go with it. Further into the season with more data I'd consider 1st scorer, but I think it's too early. Constable (for Oxford v Eastbourne) scored 4%; not enough to meet my 10% criteria, while Green (also Oxford) just missed out on sonsideration. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justbetter Posted September 16, 2009 Share Posted September 16, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Interesting idea. Best of luck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 19, 2009 Author Share Posted September 19, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Most Blue Square Premier teams have now played five home games. The system turns up two players who fit all criteria for Saturday's matches: Holroyd (Cambridge, v Wrexham) - 3 goals in 5 games = 60% Odds 11/10 (Bet365) = 48% So stake is 1.2 units. :@ Barnes-Homer (Kidderminster, v Gateshead) - 3 goals in 5 games =60% Odds 5/4 (Bet365) = 44% So stake is 1.6 units :clap The system turned up one winner and one loser. It's much to early to look at stats, but for completeness: Strike rate - 1 out of 2, 50% Yield - 28 bet, 36 returned, so yield = +28.5% Should have clarified this is very small stakes - the 28 bet so far is 28 pence! I'm 8p up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 22, 2009 Author Share Posted September 22, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers The stats show up Thomas of Kettering (home to Barrow) with a 40% record, but at 11/4 for a 13 unit stake. Previews show he may not be a starter, so this one is a case of awaiting team news. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 25, 2009 Author Share Posted September 25, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Mr Thomas let me down, so the record is: Strike rate - 1 of 3 Yield - 41 bet, 36 returned, -12 % But I still think it's too early to look at success rates. This weekend throws up three, all in the Conference/BSP: Boylen, Stevenage, 60% record, odds 7/5, 18 staked Speight, Mansfield, 67%, 7/4, 30 staked Perry, Mansfield, 60%, 11/10, 12 staked. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 26, 2009 Author Share Posted September 26, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers A bit of a blow today with none coming in. I'm at a loss as to how soemthing that showed an (admittedly small) profit last season can be losing this year. I'll keep going for a few more rounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 29, 2009 Author Share Posted September 29, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Need to rejig the stats to account for a void where someone didn't play. Strike - one in five (20%) Yield - 89 staked, 26 returned (71%) I still think this'll work out - I got a profit with an unrefined version last year - so stakes for tonight, both for Kidderminster v Wrexham: Barnes-Homer - 67% strike rate, 7/4, stake 30 Smickle, 42%, 4/1, stake 22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers A goal from Mr Smickle brought me back into credit, despite Barnes-Homer not finding the net. I'm particularly pleased, as these sort of longish shots (he was 4/1) are the sort of thing I was hoping the system would pich up. Strike rate - 2 in 7 (28%) Yield - 141 staked, 146 returned (4%) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers I'm at a loss as to how soemthing that showed an (admittedly small) profit last season can be losing this year Strike rate - 2 in 7 (28% As Jimmah mentioned, interesting idea. 7 bets is faaaar too small a sample though to say anything about whether it's a losing or winning system. Keep at it and let's see how your'e doing when you get to 50 bets :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted September 30, 2009 Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers ....and, of course, :welcome to PL...! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted September 30, 2009 Author Share Posted September 30, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Thanks Hooloovoo for the encouragement and welcome. I got back on track last night, so my morale is higher today! You've set me the challenge - I undertake to carry on until I've reached at least fifty matches! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 1, 2009 Author Share Posted October 1, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Here are six picks for Saturday - strangely, from only two teams. I won't put bets on until I hear team news, as some of these players aren't certain starters. And only Bet365 has these prices up; maybe I'll be able to get better on Saturday. Chesterfield (v Accrington): Lester: Rating 60%, Price 11/10, Stake 12 units Lowry, 50%, 11/4, 23 units McDermott, 60%, 7/2, 38 units Mansfield (v Forest Green): Duffy, 71%, 11/10, 24 units Speight, 57%, 15/8, 22 units Perry, 60%, 5/4, 16 units Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooloovoo Posted October 2, 2009 Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Good luck for the weekend. Just some advice: Normally you would put your bets on, and then post them in your thread. Since these picks are "preliminary", make sure you post a "verification post" with the chosen bookie and prices before match start :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 2, 2009 Author Share Posted October 2, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Ah - okay, point noted, thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers I'm out this pm so had to stake now and cross my fingers about line ups. All at the prices quoted, althoguh Lowry and McDermott with SkyBet not 365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clarky666 Posted October 3, 2009 Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Just signed up here and this is one of the first posts i saw. Interesting system and good to see the thought that went into it and makes for entertaining reading. I used to wait till around a dozen or so games into the season to see who was topping goal scoring charts in their respective leagues and then put them on a similar anytime scorer or 1st scorer e/w accumulator. Not scientific or thought out you like you but would run with Craig Mackail-Smith / Garry Hooper / Simeon Jackson / Kris Boyd four-fold on a number of weeks and would turn out reasonably well. Obviously it was subjective at the time and three of them are now playing at a higher level than last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 3, 2009 Author Share Posted October 3, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Thanks for the encouragement clarky666 And :welcome I'm not convinced yet that this system is better than the one you used, or better than spotting scorers by instinct, and I do think I'll need to temper it with more intelligence at some stage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 9, 2009 Author Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Only one (Duffy) came through last week. Two others came on as substitutes so I wouldn't notmally use them, but as I betted because I wasn't around for team news, they go in the stats, which are: Strike Rate 3 in 13 (23%) Yield 276 staked, 196 returned (-71) One possibility for tonight, Barnard of Southend, (60% strike rate, odds 7/5, so if he plays I'll bet 18 units (and confirm beforehand). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 9, 2009 Author Share Posted October 9, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Barnard plays, so tonight's 18 point bet is on. :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 10, 2009 Author Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Saturday's picks Benosn Dagenham, 70% rating, price 10/11, 18 units staked Ellison, Rotherham, 50%, 12/5, 21 units Hibbert, Shrewsbury, 60%, 5/4, 16 Morgan, Aldershot, 80%, 7/5, 38 Donnelly, Aldershot, 50%, 5/2, 21 Soares, Aldershot, 40%, 5/1, 23 Brandon, Bradford, 40%, 5/1, 23 Constable, Oxford, 67%, 4/5, 11 Sheradin, Tamworth, 40%, 3/1, 15 Holroyd, Cambridge, 64%, 10/11, 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 10, 2009 Author Share Posted October 10, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Saturday's picks Benosn Dagenham, 70% rating, price 10/11, 18 units staked :( Ellison, Rotherham, 50%, 12/5, 21 units :( Hibbert, Shrewsbury, 60%, 5/4, 16 :( Morgan, Aldershot, 80%, 7/5, 38 :nana Donnelly, Aldershot, 50%, 5/2, 21 :( Soares, Aldershot, 40%, 5/1, 23 :nana Brandon, Bradford, 40%, 5/1, 23 :( Constable, Oxford, 67%, 4/5, 11 :nana Sheradin, Tamworth, 40%, 3/1, 15 :( Holroyd, Cambridge, 64%, 10/11, 12 :nana At last, a day with the sort of returns I hoped the system would bring. Strike rate: 7 in 24, 29 % Yield: 492 staked, 468 retuerned, -5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 16, 2009 Author Share Posted October 16, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Picks for this weekend: Fryatt, Leicester, 26 units, 5/4 Martis, WBA, 28 units, 7/1 Maynard, Bristol City, 46 units, 5/4 Odabeji, Swindon, 11 units, 5/2 Sminkle, Kidderminster, 19 units, 3/1 Barnes-Homer, Kidderminster, 21 Units, 7/5 Suarez, Ajax, 40 units, 4/6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glory6 Posted October 18, 2009 Share Posted October 18, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Hi Wiltshire Shot, interesting system for me because most of my UK bets are dealing with the scorers as well :D But I'm wondering about one point - "Strike rate" Just for example ... lets take Lee Hughes from NottsCounty. He scored 9 goals in first 12 games. So the ratings would show you 75% strike rate. But from another point of view - he was only scoring in 4 games (25% of all games). It is a big difference in the strike rate - depending on the point of view. So should'nt you compare this "scoring games strike rate" with the offered odds? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 20, 2009 Author Share Posted October 20, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Hi Wiltshire Shot, interesting system for me because most of my UK bets are dealing with the scorers as well :D But I'm wondering about one point - "Strike rate" Just for example ... lets take Lee Hughes from NottsCounty. He scored 9 goals in first 12 games. So the ratings would show you 75% strike rate. But from another point of view - he was only scoring in 4 games (25% of all games). It is a big difference in the strike rate - depending on the point of view. So should'nt you compare this "scoring games strike rate" with the offered odds? :welcome Glory I use a compromise on the strike rate. I count the first goal in a match, while any more in the sam,e game count as half a goal. It means that the figures don't get too skewed by someone scoring a hatful against the bottom side for example. it is something I'm looking at refining though. However, it seems that the system is better at picking up longer shots (no pun!) like midfielders who net the occasional goal, whose brices tend to be too long. Tonight's picks, all in the Championship, update to come tomorrow: Maynard, Bristol C, rating 75%, stake 31, 5/4 Fryatt, Leicester, 58%, 14, 5/4 Chopra, Cardiff, 83%, 33, evens Whittingham, Cardiff, 50%, 21, 12/5 Blackstock, Forest, 67%, 25, 7/5 Buzsaky, QPR, 50%, 21, 5/2 Routledge, QPR, 40%, 20, 4/1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 21, 2009 Author Share Posted October 21, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Picks for this weekend: Fryatt, Leicester, 26 units, 5/4 :@ Martis, WBA, 28 units, 7/1 did not play Maynard, Bristol City, 46 units, 5/4 :@ Odabeji, Swindon, 11 units, 5/2 :@ Sminkle, Kidderminster, 19 units, 3/1 :@ Barnes-Homer, Kidderminster, 21 Units, 7/5 :@ Suarez, Ajax, 40 units, 4/6 :D Not a good weekend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 21, 2009 Author Share Posted October 21, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Tonight's picks, all in the Championship, update to come tomorrow: Maynard, Bristol C, rating 75%, stake 31, 5/4 ;) Fryatt, Leicester, 58%, 14, 5/4 :@ Chopra, Cardiff, 83%, 33, evens :@ Whittingham, Cardiff, 50%, 21, 12/5 :) Blackstock, Forest, 67%, 25, 7/5 :@ Buzsaky, QPR, 50%, 21, 5/2 ;) Routledge, QPR, 40%, 20, 4/1 :@ Overall: Strike rate: 11 in 37 (30%) Yield: 780 staked, 750 returned (-4%) There were two early on who were named as substitute who came on late on. I wouldn't have betted on these if I'd waited for team news (but I didn't as I was at a match). Without these at least I'd be in frofit - but admittedly not by much. I'll keep going for another week or two, but I don't think this is going to show anything like the profit I was hoping. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glory6 Posted October 21, 2009 Share Posted October 21, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers To be honestly for longterm-punting that should not make you rich because the bookies dont give a shit on the actual performance of the striker. For example Chopra will show up with 2.1 maximum for every game. But in moments like now he is not scoring for weeks. The odds stay the same but your striker rate goes down. So there are two options ... he is running out of your radar before netting again or when he is scoring after scoreless weeks your stake is too low because odds and striker rate coming clother with every game of not scoring. Edit: just came to my mind. Maybe the idea is working better with a specific HOME strike rateinstead of the overall strike rate?! Guess you have all bets/bet situations/stats recorder ... somehow. Would that aspect improve your bank or make it even more worse with the historical stats from the last weeks? **** Concerning my request last time ... Sorry it was my fault. I was only over-flying your starting post and therefor I oversaw your explanation with the half goals :spank Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Two tonight, both for Watford Cleverley, ranking 40%, priice 11/4, 13 units bet Graham, 50%, 7/4, 14 units And thanks for your points Glory. I do just use the home strike rate. I though I'd said that in my original post, but I've reread it, and I didn't. Sorry. :$ I do agree with your point about going off the radar, laco of form, etc and I'm trying to think of ways to address that. Maybe skew the weightings so that recent goals are more important than ones scored months ago - but that would add time to something that already takes some effort. I'm not sure about the long term thing, though. I support Aldershot, and I first got this idea when I saw that bookies had (and still do) clearly price our players wrong - I have a yield of 58% this season simply betting on Aldershot players to score at home because watch my team and I know where the odds are skewed. The system is based on the assumption that I can use stats to find similar mistakes for other teams - but it's not looking as if it's working out like that! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wiltshire Shot Posted October 23, 2009 Author Share Posted October 23, 2009 Re: Anytime Goalscorers Two tonight, both for Watford Cleverley, ranking 40%, priice 11/4, 13 units bet Graham, 50%, 7/4, 14 units So, Watford hit four, with three separate scorers. Almost predictably, the two players who up to now haven't been able to stop scoring decide to give the net a miss the moment I take an interest. :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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