Guest TazaD Posted September 27, 2004 Share Posted September 27, 2004 Yeah, so I agree, it's a bit weird placing a bet more than a week in advance, but I'm sure this line will rise before then. Baltimore -4 (Bought half a point...1.83) 2 units. KC have started 0-3 due to their defense being absolutely horrific! Although they did slightly better (yards-wise) today, they still allowed a pretty ordinary Houston team to get 23 points. In the first 2 weeks they were dead last in the NFL, allowing 187.5 yards rushing per game!!...Now they go on the road to face Jamal Lewis who ran for 186 yards today at over 10 ypc!! It's no coincidence that Lewis had a much better day today with Ogden coming back into the team. Last year KC could simply outscore opposition teams, but now injuries have left their offense WELL below 100%. Baltimore should be able to keep them in check, and really should be able to control this game from start to finish. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted September 28, 2004 Share Posted September 28, 2004 Re: NFL Wk.4! NYG @ Green Bay OVER 44 (2 units) League: 22-3 OVER (Av. 51.3) home 7+ fav off 7+ ats loss as away 3+ dog. [GB] 10-0 OVER (Av. 56.5!) when total >42.5 Even without those 'trends' I was expecting a total much closer to the 50 mark. BOTH defences are under-manned and very poor against the pass. Indi exploited GB by passing 22 straight times in the first 22 plays yesterday!!...No reason why Warner and the Giants won't do something similar. NYG scored 27 points (and knelt out the last minute 1 yards from their TD line!) against a much better Cleveland pass D. We know Favre and the Packers can score. One of those games where the stats don't lie...Definately expecting a shoot-out here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted September 28, 2004 Share Posted September 28, 2004 Re: NFL Wk.4! Those are some mega big trends :eek Think I'll go large on this one, altho I can't decide which I like more out of this play and Baltimore -4, which do u like best Skip? :b Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted September 28, 2004 Share Posted September 28, 2004 If it helps... I think the Baltimore tip is pretty solid. I've gone with it myself, but sold a point to make -5.5 at evens... the nature of American football is that some score differences are more likely than others, so selling and buying points can be advantagous at times. I possibly don't do it correctly though. I'd be interested to see what TazaD says though on this subject. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Datapunter Posted September 29, 2004 Share Posted September 29, 2004 Re: odds comparison for NFL Can anyone point me in the direction of an odds comparison site that is good for the american sports like NFL. Don't mind if there are a lot of bookmakers on with a 'questionable' reputation, like quite a few of the so called 'off shore' bookies. I'll make my pick wisely. thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest hawksteel Posted September 29, 2004 Share Posted September 29, 2004 Re: odds comparison for NFL Covers.com has odds comparisons in the matchups for most American sports. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted September 29, 2004 Share Posted September 29, 2004 Buying/Selling... I might be a bit conservative, but I'd rather buy down to a key number, than get the better price for a higher 'cap. Hey, if you wanna win more, just put a couple of extra dollars on ;) But your point is definately a valid one, Physician. These 'nothing' spreads (4.5/5) RARELY come up as a final margin...although, having said that, I think you'll find they happen more often now after the advent of 2 point conversions. (I could be wrong, I don't know the exact %). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted September 29, 2004 Share Posted September 29, 2004 More strong trends... Jacksonville +4 League: 10-2-1 (Av. loss 0.1) home 7- dog off 3- SU win as away 7- dog. [Jax] 9-1 (7-3 SU! Av. WIN 0.9) if opp was last at home. League: 22-32-1 (Av. win 2.3) away 7- fav off 7+ ats win as home 7- fav. [indi] 12-24-1 (Av. win 1.8) if opp was last away. 2-8 (Av. win 3.1) if opp off upset SU win. I expect Jacksonville to be able to run on this Indi D, who is allowing 4.7 ypr. If they can control the ground game, their D will be able to keep them in the game all the way. 3-0 is no fluke for this team. Defense wins games. Pittsburgh -3 (1.80) Bought this game down to 3 to be ultra-safe, but I'm pretty sure the Steelers roll all over a poor Cinci team. Cinci allowing a massive 5.7 ypc...Steelers only 3.1. Rothesbuger looks very capable of leading this team, and their pass rush should give Palmer more problems. There's also the small matter of revenge from last season's home loss. Think the Steelers win this one easily. Will definately be playing 2 moer games, but the lines are moving in my favour, so I'll hold off for a little while. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest JJBEAR Posted September 29, 2004 Share Posted September 29, 2004 More strong trends... What do you think of MIA + 6.0 Taz, massive rivalry. MIA wont want to lose again?? I know they have been shocking up to yet and getting PITT as a dog last week just lined my pockets, but I think 6 is a bit big, or would you wait to see if there are any 6.5's 7's avaiable later in the week?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted September 30, 2004 Share Posted September 30, 2004 Re: More strong trends... League: 15-30 SU (Av. loss 4.1) home, off 10+ SU loss as away 10+ dog. [sD] 1-8 ats (av. loss 12.0) if they are home 3- dog. (0-7 since '99) League: 6-1 (Av. win 10.0) away 3- fav off 3- SU loss as home 3+ fav. [Ten] Line has been off all week because McNair is questionable for this game, but it won't matter. Volek is one of the best back-up QB's in the NFL and won't have any trouble coming away with a win from a poor San Diego team. JJBEAR, sure Miami won't want to lose again, but i don't think they waned to lose the first 3 either!! Fact is they are a poor team...Well, their offense is woeful at best! Now there are rumours that Zach Thomas won't play on Sunday, and that leaves a huge hole in their defense as well. Yeah, 6 maybe 7 will be a bit to cover, but I couldn't touch Miami atm. Much better games to be fiddling with, imo. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted September 30, 2004 Share Posted September 30, 2004 UPDATE Most of the 'trends' or that I post here are from 1998 onwards....I managed to extend that back 9 years to 1989, and the news is all good for two games this weekend!! League: 24-3-2 home 7- dog, off 3- SU win as away 7- dog. [Jax] 18-2 (15-5 SU!!..Av. WIN 0.9) if opp was last at home!! It also makes Indi in a 4-14 spot (instead of the 2-8 mentioned above)....(6-12 SU!..Av. LOSS 1.2) Making Jacksonville +4 a 2 unit play. Also making Tennessee -3 a 2 unit play, based on: Since '90, League: 13-1-2 (Av. win 9.1) away 3- fav off 3- SU loss as home 3+ fav. [Tenn] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 Re: UPDATE Right...This thread has turned into a bit of a mess...so a quick recap, and I'm done!! Plays: Giants @ Green Bay over 44 (2 units) [43.5 @ Hills] Jacksonville +4 (2 units) Tennessee -3 (2 units) Baltimore -4 (2 units) ....But long gone now. Pittsburgh -3 Adding New Orleans -3 (1.91 @ Gamebookers) Can't really say too much about this one, but Arizona are in a 1-18 ats situation this week. Good luck this week gang. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 1, 2004 Share Posted October 1, 2004 Question... I'm not sure I understand the break down of the trends info you post, could you explain it? Gotta say the Colts/Jaguars match will be fascinating. Staying away myself as I can either side winning. but if the Colts do, I'm guessing it'll be well over the spread. Thanks for the tip on the Titans especially, though, hadn't realised how good the back up there was shaping up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 2, 2004 Share Posted October 2, 2004 Re: Question... Physician, sorry mate, but I can't really break down the trends. It's simply historical data where line-makers have over/under estimated teams in certain situations The only one I can break down is one I can't really say much about!! (God, sorry, I know that sound tossy, but it's info I kinda shouldn't have!!) Basically NO -3 is in a 18-1 situation since 1989...based solely on the fact tht their opposition are over-valued after their last game. (Honestly sorry I can't elaborate more!). Like I say, it's historical data....some people like it, some don't....but there's only one way to predict the future...and that by the past ;) I mean, seriously....How do you 'predict' the result of any sporting event?....By how each team HAS performed in the past....By what you know of a team. I just play the %'s...If something happens 18/19 times in 15 years then I'll go with it. As I've explained before (not to you! :cheers )...we aren't playing the games....we are playing against a bookie. Nothing else. And yep! Volek is better than 75% of starting QB's in the NFL. DEFINATELY no worries there! :ok Sorry, Physician, but if you REALLY don't undertand the breakdown as it were......I'll try here: League: 24-3-2 home 7- dog, off 3- SU win as away 7- dog. [Jax] This means that since 1989, there have been 29 games in the NFL, in which a team is a home 'dog of 7 or less....who last week won Straight Up by 3 or less as an away 'dog of 7 or less. Since 1989, these teams have covered (this weeks) spread 24 times, lost 3 times and pushed twice. Pretty good odds, I'd suggest :cheers Like I say, it has absolutely nothing to do with a teasm (a group of players) as such, but rather, there are particular times where odds-makers misjudge certain teams after a certain performance. God, I hope this makes sence to someone! and I'm not rambling to myself here!! :lol (PS....ats...means, Against The Spread) ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 2, 2004 Share Posted October 2, 2004 NFL Wk.4! Hard (and profitable) work as usual, Taz. Thanks for all the picks and looking forward to the weekend action yet again. I think you will find (and sure you have already) that explaining these trends and stuff to people not familiar with US sports doesn't work much as the data you, me and others work with are COMPLETELY different to the usual stuff a footy punter looks at. Understanding those abbreviations needs some experience with the game. Anyway, it's sometimes necessary to try and explain if someone asks, agreed (remember explaining several times the very same in NHL last season). PS Judging by times of your posts - almost round the clock - do you ever get any sleep.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 2, 2004 Share Posted October 2, 2004 Sleep? Sleep, huh?...What's that? :thinker haha...Ultimate irony, Tules...I sleep more than any other person I know!! (Just happens to be at silly times mostly!!....Het, hardly my fault that most of the sport I want to watch is played on the other side of the world!! >: ) I definately get your point mate. Definately didn't mean to imply that ThePhysician was in anyway 'uninformed'!!...Just used to US boards where when they say, "Can you explain this trend", they really mean, "Can you interpret this trend." I get a bit ahead of myself here sometimes...Just assume everyone knows what I'm on about!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest chair leg Posted October 3, 2004 Share Posted October 3, 2004 pretty nice plays christo also on JAX, PITS, NORL, BUT am on SD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 NFL... thanks... Thanks for the explanation, I was more ttrying to understand the trend information you were posting rather than how you got it (all the abbreviations were confusing poor ickle me). I thought it might have been implying that Jackonsville were 24-3 when posted as 7 point underdog. Makes more sense to me. I follow NFL probably more closely than I do soccer, but thats not saying much really. When I've commented it's been on feeling/what I've seen so far this season rather than real hard stats and trends. I was curious what they meant, so I could see what good ifno you were giving me :) Currently got this weekends matches on in background... Colts/Jaguars is tied in the 3rd quarter, 17-17. Nice one sofar (I ducked it for money, but not in our predictions league!!!!) Here's for the Titans and the Ravens :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingForTheEnemy Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 Re: NFL... thanks... Sorry if this seems a bit stupid but as a newcomer to the sport, who is keen to learn, I just wanted to check I got this right. This means that since 1989, there have been 29 games in the NFL, in which a team is a home 'dog of 7 or less....who last week won Straight Up by 3 or less as an away 'dog of 7 or less. Since 1989, these teams have covered (this weeks) spread 24 times, lost 3 times and pushed twice. So am I right in saying. 29 games where the home team have been given +7(or less) on the handicap AFTER being +7(or less) away and winning THE MATCH by 3 or less(regardless of handicap) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tulenos Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 NFL Wk.4! Exactly, WFTE.;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted October 4, 2004 Share Posted October 4, 2004 Re: NFL Wk.4! Christ knows what happened in Packers Giants, I was watching Philly v Chicago, seeing the scores come through and couldn't believe how long it stayed at 0-0, till HT :eek :eek :eek :eek I would have offered 500/1 on that game being 0-0 at half time :\ Unlucky all in all this week skip, but I am very confident Jamal will run all over Kansas tomorrow :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeffers Posted October 5, 2004 Share Posted October 5, 2004 Re: NFL Wk.4! Well the so called good Baltimore defence couldn't stop the Chiefs, and Jamal Lewis hardly even got the ball :\ I'm sure next week will be back to winning ways Skip :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thephysician Posted October 6, 2004 Share Posted October 6, 2004 Shocked! Was a shocking result that one... got the game on tape to watch tonight to see what went wrong! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest TazaD Posted October 7, 2004 Share Posted October 7, 2004 WOW!! What can I say? :x Possibly my worst week ever, in any sport since I've been doing this kind of thing!! An absolute horror. I'll say now that Jax were horribly unlucky!! Outplayed Indi in every fashion, but got a terrible call late which allowed Indi to score the winning TD. Even so, Jax missed a FG and couldn't get into the end-zone from 1 yard out. The rest?....:banghead No idea what happened!! 0-0 at HT in Green Bay??? You have got to be kidding me!! Baltimore defense was surprisingly poor...Allowed KC to convert 6 of 8 3rd and 8+!! (inc 2 crucial 3rd and 15's!!). Sickening weekend. Still....we move on...and have a couple of very scary plans lined up for this week! When I say scary.....oh, I mean it!! :thinker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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