NFL Wk. 5

[Guest TazaD]

15-23-1 (-9.48 ) :x :x Intersting week ahead....Wrote these, but still not 100% what I will be playing: Oakland +9 (Seeing the world on Indi...could scrape a 9.5, maybe a 10!! by game time??) Simply tough to take a team with a defense this bad as a big fav. Indi allowing over 300 ypg passing...and allow 3rd down conversions @ 52%!! Yeah, I know Collins looked drunk last week, but I'm sure he can bounce back. He lead the team well in pre-season...If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way....They've been right in every game this season but are -8 in turnovers!! Their ground game has been good so far (av. 4.6 ypc), and although Wheatley out, Zereoue ran for 117 on just 14 carries last week, so no problems there. Indi held Jax to 3.0 ypc last week, but could afford to show no respect to the Jax passing game. Collins and the Raiders are much more of a deep threat, so I'm willing to bet Oakland can establish a ground game to keep Manning and co. off the field for long periods. Oakland allowing only 3.6 ypc on the ground, so they should be able to keep James in check and not bite on play-action fakes. They also allow <60% passing and have had 12 sacks for the year so far. Realistically Indi have been out-played in 3 of their 4 games this year, and Green Bay turned it over twice, played ZERO defense and still only lost by 14. Oakland's running game is better than GB...run D much better, they pass for more yards and allow less passing yards. I repeat: If they can hold onto the ball, I think da Raiders can be right in this one all the way. San Diego +2.5 (ML if reasonable price) (hoping for a +3) I know I've been on abot how crap SD are, and the Jags are for real...But this is a tough trip for Jax. No real secret that the Jags rely on their ground game and a strong D to win games. A quick look at the stats (early in the season still, I know!...but) the Chargers have the 3rd best run D in the NFL!!...Allowing only 3.3 ypc!...Better than the Jags themselves @ 3.5. SD's defensive problems are against the pass, but can the Jags take advantage? Not so sure they can. They only scored 17 @ home v. a worse defense than this last week...which would mean SD would only have to hit 14 to at least push @ +3. Also think I've just talked myself into under 37 as a good bet. No point jumping off the Jax under train just yet I guess. Detroit @ Atlanta under 41.5 ...Falcons average 33 runs a game to only 18 passes. This will play into the hands of the Lions as they have a reasonable Run D (allowing only 3.6 ypr), but their problem is their weak secondary. Can Atlanta take advantage?...Doubt it. On the other side of the ball, Detroit WILL NOT be able to get any kind of ground game going. In a way it works out well that Bryson looked ok last week. Mariucci saying that they will persist with trying to establish a running game. I see Detroit being in a lot of 2nd/3rd and longs. I also think that the Falcons will be able to play a lot of Nickle/Dime packages, and just allow their front 6 to control the Det ground game. Add to that, Detroit just can't score on the road. (20 @ Chicago was their best for a LONG time...and even then the blocked FG was 7 of those.) TB ML @ ~2.60 Been looking pretty closely at this game....Had originally like TB to keep it close against a terrible NO defense. Then, I realised...Both teams had played Seattle, in Wk's 1 and 2....thought I'd take a look at how they both performed. Now, yes, I am fully aware that when Seattle played in TB it was their second straight road trip, and just about the longest trip possible in the NFL.....BUT....Look at this!!......... Seattle @ NO FD's: Seattle 21, NO 12 Total yards: Seattle 415, NO 281 YPC: Seattle 3.9, NO 3.9 Pass yards: Seattle 246 @ 8.5, NO 207 @ 5.3 TOP: Seattle 33.37, NO 26.23 Score: Seattle 21, NO 7 Seattle @ TB FD's: Seattle 9, TB 17 Total Yards: Seattle 182, TB 271 YPC: Seattle 2.4, TB 3.8 Pass yards: Seattle 126 @ 4.2, TB 179 @ 4.1 TOP: Seattle 26.17, TB 33.43 Score: Seattle 10, TB 6 As I said, not exactly comparing apples to apples, but there is a MASSIVE difference in the defense of these two teams. TB beat NO 14-7 as 3 point dogs @ NO last year.... Definately think the Bucs are good value on the ML @ ~2.60 (+160) This weeks 'trends': Since '89, League: 16-1 SU (14-1-1 this no...Av. win 16.5) home 7+ fav, total >42' off a BYE. [seattle] 13-4 over (Av. 54.3) in this situation also. Historically, teams off a bye who are supposed to score big (ie, big favs, high total), DO score big. Teams in this spot average over 35 ppg. League: 11-1 ats...(Av. win 22.4!!!) when an undefeated home team plays a team without a win. [Jets and NE] (since '97) League: 8-21 (Av. win 2.2) home 3+ fav, total <40 off a BYE. [Dal] 1-11 (Av. LOSS 3.0) if opp off any ats win!...(3-9 SU!) Like I said, not sure what I'll be playing yet...want to still weed a few plays out...Gotta get this ship back on track....er, train back on the road....um....:thinker REALLY like a 5 team, 6 point teaser @ 4.50: Seattle -1 Jets -1 Atl/Det under 47 SD +8.5 TB +9 Only getting about 2.25 for SD to beat Jax, and not looking like getting any +3's.....def like them in the teaser. Anyway...anyone else have any thoughts? :drums

[thephysician]

Thoughts. DET @ ATL I'm considering the point spread here. I've seen it at 7.5, which starts to make me think good things at picking Detroit as the Underdog getting a Touchdown start. They're an improving team, while the Falcons aren't in the league of the Eagles to blow right through the Lions (I am biased as a Lions fan, but on the other hand I pay attention to them and their upcoming opponents). MIN @ HOU Houston should roll over to the Vikings, who've had a week off and a kick up the back side. The 50 over/under looks to high though. The Vikes will turnover the ball (Culpepper has oily hands it seems), and don't have a great defence, but the Texans aren't that good at scoring. Do prefer the -4 spread on the Vikings here. MIAMI @ New England. Even at 1.09 on the money line, I'd take it if I was betting more than I do (what I do bet this season makes it hardly seem worth the time). The Fins are as awful as the 12.5 point spread shows. This is about as onesided as Palace visiting Arsenal. The spread is probably about right, and I might buy a few points of it anyways to have a least one result this weekend :)