Grex's HOMES; 558 selections; +5.1% yield

[Grex]

I have tried, tested and failed with a few of my systems on this Forum in the past. But, now I’m going to make another attempt to show consistent (but unremarkable) profit….. after all, that’s what the game is all about. The system has 2 elements. First, bets are placed on short-odds home favourites. Nothing new, you say…. of course, simply betting on home favourites at odds of 1.4 is never going to make you a profit. However, I did a lot of back-testing with data from the magnificent football-data site and found that betting at level stakes on home team odds of between 1.2 and 1.6 (Bet365 odds) gave you the best results – there was one amazing run of 24 wins in 2005-06 Premier League season. Further analysis revealed that the English Premiership and Italy Serie A are the best performers…. perhaps because both leagues have a top core of 4 to 5 teams who have made an art-form out of consistently winning their home matches. I know the “value bets� pundits will be tearing their hair out….. you can never get value bets on the likes of Arsenal, :place w:st="on">Chelsea:place>, Man United, AC Milan, Inter etc. But just wait until you see the second element of the system…. the Staking Plan…. then you’ll be tearing your hair out even more! The Staking Plan is based on even return per bet i.e your stake at odds of 1.2 will be double your stake at odds of 1.4. But, wait for it, it includes a “loss recovery� system:wall. I know….“never works…�, “you will always go bust eventually…�. However, this is a very conservative or mild loss recovery system – if you have a losing bet, you try to recover a percentage of the losses on the next round of bets. If you lose again, you write-off the losses and start again. I have back-tested the system over 6 seasons and it has consistently produced yields of between 8% and 12%. Not very dramatic, but better than a kick in the teeth. So to summarise: 1.selections will be on Premier League and Serie A matches with home team odds of between 1.2 and 1.6 (published Bet365 odds) 2.the initial bank will be £1,000 with stakes calculated to return 1% of the running bank 3.when a loss occurs, the stakes on the next round of matches will be increased by a “secret� factor, in an attempt to win back some of the previous loss 4.if a second consecutive loss(es) occurs, the loss will be written-off, and the stakes will return to achieve a profit of 1% of the running bank. One final rule… don’t start the system until 5 matches of the season have been played. Serie A still has 2 more rounds to go, however, the English Premiership has now reached that target. So the first selections will be on this weekend’s EPL matches and, surprise surprise, it looks as though Arsenal, :place w:st="on">Chelsea:place>, Man United and Aston Villa will qualify. I’ll be back later to confirm……. REMEMBER…. this is only a paper trial.

Edited December 18, 2015 by Grex

[Grex]

Re: Short Priced Home Favourites OK… here goes:hope. I made an error with my original post:spank – the odds limits are 1.45 to 1.80. The “loss-recovery” staking plan:loon remains the same (let’s hope we won’t need it for some time!)

There are just the 3 selections for the week-end, as detailed below (I used to be able to copy-and-paste beautiful colourful tables from Excel, but it doesn't seem to work now... perhaps somebody can offer some advice).... so, in beautiful black-and-white

No.

Date

Lge

H Team

Result

A Team

Odds

Target Profit

Stake

Return

Bank

Yield

1,000.00

1

20/09/2009

EPL

Man United

Man City

1.57

10.00

17.54

2

20/09/2009

EPL

Everton

Blackburn

1.80

10.00

12.50

3

20/09/2009

EPL

Chelsea

Tottenham

1.50

10.00

20.00