St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster

[fintron]

The final classic of the season awaits us this Saturday. Has anyone had an ante-post bet? The race, over 1m 6f 132y at Doncaster, has been run since 1776 and is open to 3 yo's only. Previous winners: (taken from this site: http://www.tbheritage.com/TurfHallmarks/racecharts/stleger.html). The Last column is the family number

1990	Snurge (IRE)	ch. c. 1987	Ela-Mana-Mou (IRE) - Finlandia (FR) by Faraway Son (USA)	1 - m
1991	Toulon (GB)	b. c. 1988	Top Ville (IRE) - Green Rock (FR) by Mill Reef (USA)	3 - c
1992	User Friendly (GB)	b. f. 1989	Slip Anchor (GB) - Rostova (GB) by Blakeney (GB)	1 - e
1993	Bob's Return (IRE)	br. c. 1990	Bob Back (USA) - Quality of Life (IRE) by Auction Ring (USA)	1 - w
1994	Moonax (IRE)	ch. c. 1991	Caerleon (USA) - Moonsilk (IRE) by Salinus (GB)	1 - w
1995	Classic Cliche (IRE)	b. f. 1992	Salse (USA) - Pato (GB) by High Top (IRE)	20 - c
1996	Shantou (USA)	b. c. 1993	Alleged (USA) - Shaima (USA) by Shareef Dancer (USA)	9 - c
1997	Silver Patriarch (IRE)	gr. c. 1994	Saddlers' Hall (IRE) - Early Rising (USA) by Grey Dawn (FR)	2 - n
1998	Nedawi	ch. c. 1995	Rainbow Quest (USA) - Wajd (USA) by Northern Dancer (CAN)	13 - c
1999	Mutafaweq (USA)	b.c. 1996	Silver Hawk (USA) - The Caretaker (IRE) by Caerleon (USA)	2 - e
2000	Millenary (GB)	b.c. 1997	Rainbow Quest (USA) - Ballerina (IRE) by Dancing Brave (USA)	1 - l
2001	Milan	b.c. 1998	Sadler's Wells - Kithanga	5 - e
2002	Bollin Eric	b.c. 1999	Shaamit (IRE) - Bollin Zola	4 - d
2003	Brian Boru	b.c. 2000	Sadler's Wells - Eva Luna (USA) by Alleged (USA)	14 - c
2004	Rule of Law (USA)	b.c. 2001	King Mambo (USA) - Crystal Crossing (IRE) by Royal Academy (USA)	3 - c
2005	Scorpion (IRE)	b.c. 2002	Montjeu (IRE) - Ardmelody - Law Society (USA)	23
2006	Sixties Icon	b.c. 2003	Galileo (IRE) - Love Divine by Diesis (GB)	14 - c
2007	Lucarno (USA)	b.c. 2004	Dynaformer (USA) - Vignette (USA) by Diesis (GB)	9 - f

The 2008 renewal was won by Conduit, ridden by Frankie Dettori, for Sir Michael Stoute.

[fintron]

Re: St Leger - Sat 12th Sept - Doncaster This was my ante-post preview written on 27th August and posted in my flat thread. I am also on at 14/1 as per the stickied ante-post thread.

Ante-post - St Leger - Doncaster September 12th This was the only classic I managed to crack last season using trends so I was keen to use those same trends this time around after the success with Conduit last term. Last year the trends I identified were far from extensive, namely that the selection had to have won a Group race, was not a filly and had ran in one of two key trials - The Gordon Stakes at Goodwood or the Great Voltigeur at York. 2008 winner Conduit met all of those trends and showed Ryan Moore was wrong to turn his back on the Gordon Stakes winner by opting to ride Doctor Fremantle, but Frankie proved an able deputy and his mount ran out an impressive three length winner at an SP of 8/1. Another trend noted was that the winner tends to come from the within the first three in the betting, but of all of the trends this is the one I would be willing to compensate on, considering none of the first three in the betting this year make the key-trials trend and that Ebor second Changingoftheguard has never won a Group race. I still think Aiden O'Brien will have a big role in this race - as ever he has almost half of the field (which currently stands at eleven runners) carrying his orders and will be deploying the pacemakers with the likes of Rockhampton and Johann Zoffany left in the race at the latest forfeit stage. There is the possibility that Urban Poet and Manifest may be supplemented for the race too which would fatten up the field, but both of these would fall down from a trends point of view as they have yet to win a pattern race. With Ballydoyle likely to set a furious gallop, there is one horse that looks an obvious selection to me looking at the race from both a trends and form perspective - Father Time. Henry Cecil's Dansili colt ran a decent race under the circumstances in the Voltigeur as the winner, Monitor Closely, was given an enterprising ride from the front by Jimmy Fortune. He was able to lead from pillar to post in his own time, and the jockey said in the aftermath of the race that he was doubtful the horse would get the extra yardage in the St Leger given he was allowed to crawl that day at the Knavesmire. Whether the connections of Monitor Closely decide to supplement the Oasis Dream colt for the Doncaster showpiece at a cost of £45k is the talking point surrounding the race at present, but either way, the way Father Time was running on that day suggests to me that with another two and a half furlongs on Leger Day he would have every chance of reversing the form. Trainer Henry Cecil has had this race in mind for some time for Father Time - speaking prior to the Voltigeur he said on his website "the plan since Ascot has been the St Leger........he seems to be progressing nicely both mentally and physically and is very happy in himself." Cecil's colt recorded a Group 2 success when landing the King Edward II Stakes at Ascot in June, incidentally a race in which Conduit was second last season, so he meets the Group winner trend and at his current price I think he is worth chancing. 12/1 VC Bet, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). Nb: any bets placed at this stage are settled on ante-post terms