Windsor 24th Aug

[chris34]

4.30 windsor Special reserve won over CD back in may has since been running in some hotter events and a couple of disappointing efforts, but showed some promise again last time out, hughes back on board and fast ground should suit well and drawn well 0.5pt e/w special reserve 11/2 bet365bog 5.30 windsor Espy ran what looks like a solid 2nd over CD last time out in similar conditions and also has a great draw. Also like the look of colorus was disappointing last time out under a penalty and could be more at home here after wining round here in an app handicap off just a 1lb higher mark today 0.5pt e/w espy 9/2 bet365 bog 0.5pt e/w colorus 12/1 bet365 bog

[RussP]

Re: Windsor 24th Aug

RACE	5.30 Windsor					DATE	24/08/09			DIST	5f		CLASS	5 (0-70)
PACE CHART
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26
8	4	0	4	4	2	10	10	2	3	10	8	2	9	8	11
PACE COMMENT
Not as much pace as expected for a 5f sprint. Pace is high and prominent types will be suited
DRAW COMMENT
High draws have the rail and they stay high when the ground is firmish. Add to that the pace bias, high is favoured
ELIMINATIONS
Cape Royal (16)			Will lead them up the stands rail but needs softer ground. Jockey 0-20 last fortnight
Heaven (4)			Behind Espy lto, 1lb better off but poor draw. Hold up style not certain to suit
Espy (2)			Very wide draw, concern that it struggles to get head in front. Lto, was travelling best of all but effort petered out
Matterfact (10)			2lb above highest winning mark and stable bang out of form
Ten Down (7)			May be better 2nd run back from an absence on falling mark but no real form on turf for quite a while now
Cosmic Destiny (9)			Needs fast pace which is not guaranteed. Better at Brighton & needs lower mark to resume winning ways
Brandywell Boy (14)			Better at Newbury and jockey & trainer both out of form
Robin The Till (6)			3yo and still a maiden after 11 starts. Powerful combo but would be a surprise if it broke it duck on past form
Malapropism (5)			Regressive veteran, winless in over 2 years
Tan Bonita (15)			Runner from Spain. Down the field at Brighton 6 days ago, difficult to imagine anything better here
Joss Stick (13)			Hold up style won't suit & looks outclassed in this grade
Kalligal (3)			Poor draw & 3lb out of handicap
Sir Loin (1)			Worst draw & 6lb out of handicap
SHORTLIST
Colorus (8)			Looks particularly well handicapped today and has recorded some very consistent Topspeed figures recently. Won here 2 starts off just 1lb lower than today and is 5lb lower than lto when down the field at Thirsk. Prominent type with an ok draw. Has gone well for this 3lb claimer and both stable & jockey are amongst the winners. 1 from 1 at the track, racing in right grade over best trip. Should go well at odds of 12/1
Comptonspirit (12)			Not scored for 12 months but is looking ready to strike from a falling mark. Has a good draw today and ran well lto just over a week ago when staying on really strongly. Record off marks in the 50's read 3-6-2-1-2 so expected to build on that. Goes well at this time of year and this is its ground too. Considering it has been placed this season off 63 & 65 but races off 59 today with a good lto effort too, this looks a nice bet. Currently 7/1
Towy Boy (11)			Still a maiden after 28 races but too dangerous to rule out. Has finished in the places 9 times but struggled to get head in front. Drawn well again in 11 and has a prominent racing style too. Form figures of 4-2-4-2 since applying the visor and today has the assistance of the excellent Neil Callan, that could prove key. Good Topspeed figures in those recent runs and mark has not really been affected. Ground looks ideal and interesting now dropped to 5f. Has lots of natural pace and this drop in trip should reap rewards. 10/1 on offer
CONCLUSION			4 of the top 5 in the betting are readily passed over here. Of the 3, I like the forecast bet. Comptonspirit is passed over as stable could be in better nick and may be a little short in the market. Colorus is also excluded but only narrowly and I make Towy Boy the bet to end its winless streak. In good form, excellent jockey booking and new trip significant
SELECTION			Towy Boy				10/1 Bet365 BOG