York Ebor Meeting - Day 4 - Friday

[fintron]

1.45 York I was at Pontefract on Sunday when Braveheart Move ran out a half a length winner infront of Eton Fable, and I thought he ran a great race in a thrilling finish. He is turned out under a penalty here as a result of that win but is lightly raced and open to further improvement. At Pontefract he won over a stiff 10f, and although he is up to 1m 6f tomorrow, York is a much easier track and I think, given the way he ran on on Sunday, he could be up to defying a penalty here despite the step up in trip. 11/2 VC Bet, 1 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds). 3.25 York - Nunthorpe Seventeen runners line up to contest this lucrative prize, worth £136k to the winner, and Robin Bastiman's Borderlescott looks a good each-way bet at the price as he bids to defend his crown. Last years race was held at Newmarket because of the flooding up at York, and was the one and only time Border has tasted Group 1 success. However, he placed in third in the Prix de L'Abbaye at Longchamp before the season was out to show he is able to mix it with the big guns at the highest level, and that his Nunthorpe win was not a one off. This year he was beaten by Armore Propre in the Palace House Stakes at Newmarket but he has since managed to get his head infront in a listed race at Chester and ran better than the formline indicated at Goodwood last time out. Kingsgate Native, winner of this race in 2007 before being sent off for a failed spell at stud, got the better of him that day, but benefitted from being drawn up with the pace. In contrast, Borderlescott was drawn right over the other side of the field, and ran a big race to finish as close as he did from unfavourable territory. For that reason, I think Border has been overpriced here and should perhaps be a couple of points shorter. Kingsgate Native is a worthy favourite and 11/4 seems very fair for what is a genuine Group 1 horse, trained by a world class trainer and ridden by the best jockey in the country. However, Borderlescott did have the beating of him in this race previously and at the prices, can at least be backed with a bit of each-way insurance and a slither of hope of a form reversal. As for the rest of the field, there are plenty making up the numbers here that would be more at home in a Group 3 race. There a a few exceptions though, Radiohead from the Brian Meeham yard is a fascinating entry for one. He has shown plenty of promise in his debut season this term and gets into this race on a feather weight of 8-1 because of a whopping weight-for-age allowance. However, he has been thrown in at the deep end here against battle hardened Group performers and I just wonder whether 9/2 is too short for a two year old up against much physically stronger, and wiser horses. Armore Propre is another smart prospect and looked a real tool when winning the Group 3 Palace House Stakes earlier in the season. He put plenty of daylight between himself and Border, who finished back in third, although he the first two home were drawn high, as opposed to Border, who fared best of those drawn low. Of the others, Art Connoisseur and Equiano have both picked up Group 1's in their time but they lack consitency, something that cannot be said of the ever dependable Borderlescott, and despite the fact he is now another year older I am taking the Bastiman charge to show the kids how its done and extend his excellent record on the Knavesmire (2-3). Kingsgate Native 11/4 Paddypower, 0.5 pt win Borderlescott 9/1 Totesport, 0.5 pt EW (3 places, 1/4 odds) Combination forecasts on above two with Armore Propre 4.40 York Judgethemoment - 10/1 looks generous for a horse that had the beating of subsequent Ebor winner Sesenta at Royal Ascot. He has since competed in listed and Group races since that day and although has disappointed, with in great form in handicaps prior to that. His win in the Ascot Stakes came off 91, and he runs off only 4 lbs higher here, so he still looks handicapped to win more races. Saga De Tercey is unexposed and has been in good form of late. Neil Callan is a profitable jockey to follow in these staying races so I'm on him too. Judgethemoment 10/1 Paddypower, 1 pt EW (4 places, 1/4 odds). Saga de Tercey 15/2 Paddypower, 0.5 pt win

[chris34]

Re: York Ebor Meeting - Day 4 - Friday 4.40 york With fin here ;) Saga de tercey has been heavily backed last 2 shows out and is obviously thought a lot of, is only raised 4lb for recent win under callan and could still be well handicapped. Stamina is no problem having won over 2m1f in a NH flat race fast ground seems to also find the best 0.5pt e/w saga de tercey 10/1 bet365 bog