Handicap expert needed - help please!

[Kithanga]

Apologies for the large post but I thought I’d need to explain thoroughly and it’s hard to get down in writing.

I’d really appreciate some help & pointers from you guys who are making it pay in handicaps as they’ve been doing my head in for many years. I feel that if I can crack this one area of my analysis I’ll improve my results in a big way. I’m sure there’s one or two key aspects of the form I’m just not giving enough weight to. Let me explain what I mean looking at a large sample of my results:

Handicap strike rate : 14% Profit on stakes : -2.9%

Non Handicap strike rate : 25% Profit on stakes : 30.7%

And it’s been like that for years, like 20 years! Making a profit overall but feeling like I’m hitting the crossbar as the handicaps drag the results down. If I can crack them (even getting a small margin in my favour) it’d make a big difference.

Everything about the non handiaps is fine. I can spot form lines, trends, tactics, etc and my tissue is normally pretty close meaning I have a very good level of confidence when striking a bet that I consider to be overpriced. I'm also usually spot on with the races to leave alone. It’s the opposite in the handicaps as my prices are normally quite out of line with the bookies. I’m taking what I consider to be value prices but the maths above shows they’re not.

Here’s a prime example from yesterday with two selections I made at Haydock in the 3.30 & 4.05 along with my (edited) pre race notes and prices.

Sudden Impact, returned to form last two starts.Good effort at Hamilton recently keeping on up the hill against unexposed rival. Previously ran well at Thirsk and had shown a much higher level of ability last season. Has proved capable of carrying a big weight in softer ground. Flat track will help him last out, has favoured stands side draw and looks ready to strike but several other front runners and in form rivals in opposition and hasn’t won for two years. 4-1 on my 100% book. Strong in the market at 9-4 so no bet as underpriced. He won.

Desert Icon, improved effort in much higher class at Newmarket, possibly flattered by run of race but may have needed first two runs back after injury. Lightly raced and unexposed. Proven on softer ground last season and due to go up 9lbs in handicap. Has good chance of grabbing favoured rail & not too much opposition for lead so should be able to set own pace. 2-1 on my 100% book. Weak in betting and available at 7-2 which I took and watched him trail in last.

Clearly they don’t always lose and I am drawing nearly even but it’s the fact that I have no confidence in my tissue prices as they are so often wide of the mark. And the animals I expect to fill the frame are way off. My last non handicap bet Doncaster Rover I had priced at 3-1 joint fav and he was available at 5-1 so I piled in along with many others and he shortened right up to 11-4 to win. Not only that but (with the exception of my other joint fav Tombi who lost a shoe) they all finished exactly in the order I thought they would and that happens often enough that I just know I’ve got those races nailed.

So, what should I be doing in your opinion and what factors are most important when weighing up (and pricing up) a handicap? Any help is very very much appreciated.

Thanks, Kithanga. (even the two big wins on him were in listed races and that was many years ago!)

p.s. I’m also happy to share pointers on the non handicaps if any of you are struggling with those.

[Aykay1]

Re: Handicap expert needed - help please! I suppose in theory, handicaps should be trickier than other races due to the assumption that the field should finish in a straight line if the weights have been allocated correctly - of course in practice it doesnt happen that way. Maybe i'm being controversial here but the handicapping system invites corruption in my opinion so that doesnt make things any easier for us either! Some of the elimination methods i use are: - dont back horses running off a mark higher than thery have won off before. Of course this means that i sometimes miss out on impoving horses than continue to win but i find that with some of the older, more experienced horses, they mostly find the extra burden too much. - avoid horses whose mark has crept up without them winning - you often find that horses will be raised 3lbs or so for gettin placed. - avoid horses who havent won on that days ground conditions - although i apply that to all races. erm.... cant think of any others off the top of my head but will come back :ok