Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10

[allthethings]

Hi, I have started a couple of these threads before and haven't managed to keep them active for more than a few months, but this time I will try. The strategy is simple. I play the best-priced side and total available in each league. I don't play every league, and I won't make a pick if there are several games at roughly the same odds. This is a refinement of previous years, where I ended up taking too many games. I have found over time that when there is a clear favorite among all the games being offered in a league's slate of games, that is the one that loses more often than not. I think the reason lines get inflated usually has something to do with the public over-valuing one piece of information and forgetting about all the other variables that can affect an outcome. For example, how many times have you seen one team with "seven missings on defense" and everybody piles on the opponent, and then the team with all the missings plays their asses off and gets the 0-0 draw? There is also, in the area of overs, a huge amount of luck involved. Yes, there are teams that play very tight on the road, yes, the strategy changes in game so that some teams get a 1-0 lead and then park everyone in front of the goal. But on the whole, best-priced overs (especially in lower leagues) have shown to be better bets than those that everyone expects. Unders I'm queasy playing, but I have found many situations that I like, for example, the best-priced under 2 in Japan. On sides I mainly look for a home team that is favored to win at 2.1 or better, or with a -1 handicap at 2.1 or better. I generally avoid road teams, but I will play them if the line is decent enough. Two FAQs... 1. When do I make my picks? I used to wait and watch the lines, and make picks closer to game time. I found it was just as good to make picks after the initial lines have been posted by my book (and moved). Yesterday I took an overs in Europa League late after all the money had flowed to unders, and lost 0-2. One of my picks today was the best-priced side in Austria, but money on the opponent has pushed the line from -0.5, +118 to pk -180. If I looked at the lines today I would not have made that pick. 2. Why the American odds? It's easier for me to keep track and, also, I'm an American. In case you don't know what they mean, +120 means a $100 bet wins you $120. A game at -120 would mean that you bet $120 to win $100. I will keep track here and link this thread to my picks in the various league threads. I started yesterday, and not very well. I will post those next.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Yesterday's games: Europa League: Soccer - Suduva - spread +½ (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 12:00pm [loss] Soccer - FC Dinaburg - spread +1½ (+157) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 11:30am [loss] Soccer - Juvenes Dogana - spread +2½ (+132) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 1:30pm [winner] Soccer - KR Reykjavik/Larisa - total Over 2½ (+115) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 2:15pm [loss] Brazil Serie A: Soccer - Corinthians/Sport Recife - total Under 2½ (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [loss] Soccer - Sao Paulo - spread pk (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [loss] Today: Japan 2: Soccer - Mito Hollyhock - spread pk (+125) for the regulation time held on Jul 17 at 5:00am [winner] Results so far: 2-5, -2.4 units