Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10

[allthethings]

Hi, I have started a couple of these threads before and haven't managed to keep them active for more than a few months, but this time I will try. The strategy is simple. I play the best-priced side and total available in each league. I don't play every league, and I won't make a pick if there are several games at roughly the same odds. This is a refinement of previous years, where I ended up taking too many games. I have found over time that when there is a clear favorite among all the games being offered in a league's slate of games, that is the one that loses more often than not. I think the reason lines get inflated usually has something to do with the public over-valuing one piece of information and forgetting about all the other variables that can affect an outcome. For example, how many times have you seen one team with "seven missings on defense" and everybody piles on the opponent, and then the team with all the missings plays their asses off and gets the 0-0 draw? There is also, in the area of overs, a huge amount of luck involved. Yes, there are teams that play very tight on the road, yes, the strategy changes in game so that some teams get a 1-0 lead and then park everyone in front of the goal. But on the whole, best-priced overs (especially in lower leagues) have shown to be better bets than those that everyone expects. Unders I'm queasy playing, but I have found many situations that I like, for example, the best-priced under 2 in Japan. On sides I mainly look for a home team that is favored to win at 2.1 or better, or with a -1 handicap at 2.1 or better. I generally avoid road teams, but I will play them if the line is decent enough. Two FAQs... 1. When do I make my picks? I used to wait and watch the lines, and make picks closer to game time. I found it was just as good to make picks after the initial lines have been posted by my book (and moved). Yesterday I took an overs in Europa League late after all the money had flowed to unders, and lost 0-2. One of my picks today was the best-priced side in Austria, but money on the opponent has pushed the line from -0.5, +118 to pk -180. If I looked at the lines today I would not have made that pick. 2. Why the American odds? It's easier for me to keep track and, also, I'm an American. In case you don't know what they mean, +120 means a $100 bet wins you $120. A game at -120 would mean that you bet $120 to win $100. I will keep track here and link this thread to my picks in the various league threads. I started yesterday, and not very well. I will post those next.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Yesterday's games: Europa League: Soccer - Suduva - spread +½ (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 12:00pm [loss] Soccer - FC Dinaburg - spread +1½ (+157) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 11:30am [loss] Soccer - Juvenes Dogana - spread +2½ (+132) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 1:30pm [winner] Soccer - KR Reykjavik/Larisa - total Over 2½ (+115) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 2:15pm [loss] Brazil Serie A: Soccer - Corinthians/Sport Recife - total Under 2½ (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [loss] Soccer - Sao Paulo - spread pk (+134) for the regulation time held on Jul 16 at 7:00pm [loss] Today: Japan 2: Soccer - Mito Hollyhock - spread pk (+125) for the regulation time held on Jul 17 at 5:00am [winner] Results so far: 2-5, -2.4 units

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Today: Austria 2: Soccer - Red Bull Junior S - spread -½ (+118) for the regulation time held on Jul 17 at 11:00am [pending] Soccer - FC Dornbirn 1913/Trenkwald Admira - total Over 3 (+117) for the regulation time held on Jul 17 at 11:00am [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Austria Bundesliga: Soccer - SK Austria Karnten - spread +½ (+127) for the regulation time held on Jul 17 at 1:30pm [pending] First game of the season, rich promoters at home against a team that was in absolute turmoil last season, managed one draw and 10 losses in its last 11 games. I'm on the troubled visitors.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Tomorrow, with more to come: Korea 1: Soccer - Ulsan H Horang I - spread -½ (+118) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 5:00am [pending] Soccer - Suwon S Bluewings/Daejeon - total Over 2½ (+117) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 5:30am [pending] Japan 2: Soccer - Ehime FC/Okayama - total Over 2½ (+107) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 5:00am [pending]

[allthethings]

Was unable to get it together to post today...after going 1-2 in Austria (giving up losing goals in extra time in the two losses), I went 0-5 overnight in Japan and Korea...righted the ship in the afternoon, going 5-1 in Finland, Russia, Denmark and Ireland. Eight wins, 14 losses is not how I hoped to start. On to tomorrow. I'm playing eight: Japan 1 Soccer - Kashiwa Reysol - spread pk (+142) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 5:00am [pending] Soccer - Sanfrecce Hiroshima/JEF United - total Under 2½ (+118) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 4:00am [pending] Japan 2 Soccer - Sagantosu/Vegalta Sendai - total Under 2 (+113) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 5:00am [pending] Finland Ykkonen Soccer - Oulu - spread -1 (+101) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 10:30am [pending] Soccer - Oulu/KEPS - total Over 2½ (+109) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 10:30am [pending] [i feel better about the side than the total here...Oulu do not concede very often, so a 2-0 win is a danger. Of course, so is a 0-0 draw.] Ireland 1st Soccer - Monaghan United/Waterford - total Over 2½ (+112) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 9:00am [pending] Russia Premier Soccer - Terek Gronzni/Zenit St Petersburg - total Over 2½ (+112) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 11:30am [pending] Sweden Superettan Soccer - Syrianska FC/Vasalunds IF - total Over 3 (+115) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 11:00am [pending] Four that fit the system that I am not playing: Costa Rica/Guadaloupe O 2.5...don't like playing knockouts Brondby/Odense O 2.5...these two have played unders h2h 9 straight games Honka/Mariehamn O 2.5...been burned in Veikkausliiga too many times Djurgarden/Elfsborg O 2.5...see Brondby; this has unders written all over it Also, Brazil Serie A has three potential home sides to play on, but I guess I'll wait until I see how I do with these first. Also, I don't know if I'll have computer access tomorrow.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Okay, adding three after getting my ass kicked yet again in Japan this morning: Denmark SAS occer - Brondby/Odense BK - total Over 2½ (+111) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 11:00am [pending] Brazil A Soccer - Sport Recife - spread -1 (+132) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 4:30pm [pending] Soccer - Barueri/Nautico - total Over 3 (+110) for the regulation time held on Jul 19 at 4:30pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 5-6 today, 13-20 so far on the season. If anybody has been paying attention, that's 1-8 in Asia, 1-4 in Brazil, 1-4 in Europa League and 10-4 in the European leagues. The three I didn't play today went 2-1. What I usually do is shy away from Japan, from Brazil, when things aren't going well. But sticking with them is probably called for, as they'll come around.

[Toronto_Mike]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 IMO, you should keep record of the things you've posted. No offense but yes you went 5-1 in European leagues but there's no proof of it. If you want to really keep a good track of things use this thread because then it just makes you look like you made it up. The way I see it based on this thread you are 8-16

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10

IMO, you should keep record of the things you've posted. No offense but yes you went 5-1 in European leagues but there's no proof of it. If you want to really keep a good track of things use this thread because then it just makes you look like you made it up. The way I see it based on this thread you are 8-16

I will when I have the time. Believe me, if I were making things up I'd be 20-13, not 13-20.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Today: Sweden Allvenskan Soccer - Malmo/Halmstad - total Under 2 (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 20 at 12:00pm [pending] Soccer - GAIS - spread pk (+130) for the regulation time held on Jul 20 at 1:00pm [pending] Sweden Superettan Soccer - Jonkopings Sodra - spread pk (+127) for the regulation time held on Jul 20 at 1:00pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Saturday's missings were: Soccer - Shamrock Rovers - spread -1 (+111) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 1:00pm [winner] Soccer - Haka/VPS - total Over 2½ (+111) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 10:30am [loss] Soccer - JJK/Inter Turku - total Under 2 (+121) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 10:30am [winner] Soccer - Saturn - spread -½ (+114) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 11:30am [winner] Soccer - Rubin Kazan/CSKA Moscow - total Over 2½ (+117) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 8:30am [winner] Soccer - >Midtyjylland/Esbjerg - total Under 2½ (+110) for the regulation time held on Jul 18 at 10:00am [winner]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Yesterday ended 1-1-1, though it looked more promising when GAIS was up 2-0. Today: CL Qualifyers Soccer - Sant Julia - spread +2 (+113) for the regulation time held on Jul 21 at 11:45am [pending] Soccer - HSK Zrinjski Mostar - spread +1 (+142) for the regulation time held on Jul 21 at 12:30pm [pending] Soccer - Apoel Nicosia/EB Streymur - total Under 3½ (+123) for the regulation time held on Jul 21 at 12:00pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Sure gets tiring losing all the time. 1-2 today, 15-23 overall. Tomorrow morning...won't have CL lines until close to game time, not that that has helped me at all: Korea Cup Soccer - Seongnam Ilhwa - spread -1 (+116) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 6:00am [pending] Soccer - Suwon S Bluewings/Pohang Steelers - total Under 2 (+116) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 5:30am [pending] Japan 2 Soccer - Toyama - spread pk (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 5:00am [pending] Soccer - Thespa Kusatsu/FC Gifu - total Under 2 (+120) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 5:30am [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Two wins, two pushes...17-23 overall, -3.3 units. One good thing about playing all games for plus-money is that you don't need to win 50% of your bets to make a profit...of course I'm just at 42%, which is not good enough. There is one game that fits the system today, Sion -0.5, +103 (was +110) in Switzerland, but I haven't decided whether to take it or not. I think I probably won't. Last night there were two games that I could have taken but didn't. Chelsea was +120 to win against AC Milan (they did), and Seattle played Houston in something called "US Cup" (whatever that is). The opening line, three days before the game, was Seattle +117 to win, under 2 paying +120. One day before the game, money had come in on Houston and over, so the line was now Houston DNB +125, O 2.5 +116. This is the confusing part of the strategy: which bet do you take? As it happens, the score was 1-1 at the end of 90 minutes, so the late bettors who took Houston were right (even if the bet was a push), but the late overs bettors were wrong. It may well be that such line moves are 50-50...I know a lot of people think that late money is "smart money," but I don't. I will say this...the whole point of my strategy is that the public is wrong more than the public is right, but the variables in football games are such that a consistent strategy is probably impossible. Much of the late, so-called "smart" betting is supposed to be based on inside information, or late information on starting lineups, weather and so on. But it's clear that missings in most cases less relevant than most betting lines would have you believe. One situation that this strategy overcomes all the time is the home team that is installed as the favorite by the bookies, but the bettors side with the away team. There is always a narrative that is linked to this: "Shamrock is at home and is a much better team, but they are looking ahead to Monday's friendly against Real Madrid, which is huge for the team. They won't play their starters, they won't risk injury, they'll hold back, etc." And Shamrock wins, 3-1...this was the situation last weekend, with the line Shamrock -1, +111 and their opponents at +1, -145 or something. But anyway, I'm leaning to believing that the best strategy is to take these bets early rather than late. Right after lines are posted there is always a flurry of betting, and this is either smart bettors finding value in soft lines, or not-so-smart bettors (over)reacting with their gut. Either way, there is so much that can happen between the time that the lines are posted and when the games are played that playing +120 lines has got to be value. Something may happen that goes against you by game time, but I think over time you'll end up ahead on this strategy.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 I wasn't going to, but the number became too good to ignore: Switzerland Premier Soccer - FC Sion - spread -½ (+121) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 12:45pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10

I wasn't going to, but the number became too good to ignore: Switzerland Premier Soccer - FC Sion - spread -½ (+121) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 12:45pm [pending]

3-1 home win. I also took Maribor -1, +106 in CL Qualifying but wasn't able to post as I was on my way to a business meeting...that game has finished 3-1. It's worth noting that Aktobe was the other home team at -1 for plus money (just +103), and it finished 2-0. I know Toronto Mike will be outraged, but I'm counting Maribor, seeing as how my bookie is. That ends a really good day for me...overall now 19-23, -1.1 units.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 I notice that this line has been stable, so it is in fact a play: Brazil Serie A Soccer - Santos - spread -1 (+109) for the regulation time held on Jul 22 at 7:00pm [pending] The new coach is one good omen, but I hate backing bad teams to win, no matter how bad their opponent, and with this line they need to beat Atletico PR by 2...oh well. The strategy says play it, I'm playing it.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Europa League Soccer - FC Lahti - spread -½ (+111) for the regulation time held on Jul 23 at 10:30am [pending] Iceland Premier Soccer - Breidablik - spread -1 (+102) for the regulation time held on Jul 23 at 2:15pm [pending] Soccer - Breidablik/IB Vestmannayjar - total Over 3 (+101) for the regulation time held on Jul 23 at 2:15pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Today: 2-1, 1 push (Atletico MG), overall 21-24, even. Friday: Austria 1 Soccer - LASK Linz - spread pk (+125) for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 1:30pm [pending] Ireland Premier Soccer - Dundalk/Drogheda - total Under 2 (+118) for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 1:45pm [pending] In Austria 2, Gratkorn could be a play at -1, even money (was +105), but I'll only play it if the line gets fatter.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Taking some sides early for the weekend, will wait to take totals... Saturday: Korea 1 Soccer - Incheon United - spread -½ (+114) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 5:00am [pending] Japan 1 Soccer - Vissel Kobe - spread -½ (+105) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 5:00am [pending] Sunday: Austria 1 Soccer - KSV Superfund - spread -½ (+110) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 12:30pm [pending] Norway Tippeligaen Soccer - Tromso - spread -1 (+113) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 11:00am [pending] Russia Premier Soccer - Kuban - spread -½ (+123) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 8:00am [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Adding just one total for Friday: Austria 2 Soccer - St Polten/Red Bull Junior S - total Over 3 (+116) for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 11:00am [pending]

[Toronto_Mike]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 i'm actually on a lot of the same plays, can you believe it, we can agree on somethings!

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Brazil Serie B Soccer - Parana - spread -½ (+123) for the regulation time held on Jul 24 at 7:00pm [pending LASK game ended 4-5...lol.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Today 2-2, overall 23-26, +0.4 units Adding for Saturday: Ireland 1st Soccer - Finn Harps - spread -½ (+117) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 1:45pm [pending] There are a couple of others I'm too chickenshit to take: Waterford/Limerick O2.5 +117 (overs in Ireland are taking your life into your own hands), Krylya Sovetov -1 +115. But at the moment, having clawed my way back to respectability, I'm inclined to go easy.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Three more for Saturday: Poland Cup Soccer - Wisla Krakow - spread pk (+132) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 10:00am [pending] Switzerland Challenge League Soccer - Lausanne - spread pk (+138) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 11:30am [pending] Netherlands Cup Soccer - AZ Alkmaar - spread -½ (+127) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 1:00pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Peace Cup Soccer - Malaga - spread pk (+123) for the regulation time held on Jul 25 at 3:30pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Saturday: 2-4, 1 push...overall 25-30, -1.1 unit.

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Sunday: Japan 2 Soccer - Ehime FC/Toyama - total Over 2½ (+117) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 5:00am [pending] Korea 1 Soccer - Chonbuk H Motors - spread -½ (+106) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 5:00am [pending] Finland V Soccer - FC Honka - spread -1 (+128) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 10:30am [pending] Russia Premier Soccer - CSKA Moscow/Spartak Moscow - total Over 2½ (+114) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 7:00am [pending] Brazil Serie A Soccer - Atletico MG - spread -1 (+123) for the regulation time held on Jul 26 at 2:00pm [pending]

[allthethings]

Re: Allthethings Public Fade 2009/10 Sunday 4-3, +1.7 units...overall 29-33, +0.6 units. I missed some great ones as I was trying to limit my plays and wasn't near the computer for long stretches...Finland 1&2 went 5-0 on the best-priced totals and sides...in Denmark, Silkeborg pk +130 was a 4-0 winner against Midtjylland...Trelleborg-Goteborg in Sweden went over at +123, which is the second week in a row the top Swedish total has come in despite stats that screamed unders...there were also some losers I missed, so I can't complain.