The ATR Interviews (5)~ Billy The Punter

[BillyHills]

Issue 5 of our ATR Interviews takes us into the world of our resident Professional Punter, Billy or BTP has he is sometimes known. Billy joined the PL in March 2008 just before the Cheltenham festival and in fact made his first post in the sub forum set up especially for the 4 day meeting. Since then his contribution to the PL has been immense in both the amount of posts (average 9 a day since Mar 08) and the knowledge he has shared to the members. I remember thinking he was just another 'trend' punter back then, nothing against trends but we have a few around here somewhere ;). I admit i was also a bit sceptical of his claims to being a 'pro' and posed questions (like I do), I mean he wasnt the first poster to make such claims, the fact that the rest have slipped away quietly and Bill is still giving us quality posts on a daily basis speaks volumes for his loyalty and ability to ignore or convert the doubters. Bill made an imediate impact on the PL, being nominated as the best newcomer of 2008 and has also been active over in the Poker section. Having worked on the Racing Post, tipping, odds compiling, racehorse ownership and now four years into professional betting he has a wealth of experience and always eager to share his thoughts and give advice, not many forums can tap in to such a plethora of knowledge in one place and all for free. Recently Bill has had to restrict his tipping due to his own business interests which can be followed here on his blog but despite that he has continued to feed the ATR valuable information and still contributes to the BBOTD competition. Hope you enjoy the interview, thanks to Bill for giving us an insight into his world. _________________________________________________ Previous Issues in case you missed them;

• Bowles10
• Ralphie7
• Fintron
• RussP

_________________________________________________ BH

[BillyHills]

Re: The ATR Interviews (5)~ Billy The Punter The Punters Lounge 1. You joined the PL in March 2008, how did you come across the site in the first place? At the time my laptop had packed in and as result I had lost some stats that I had saved for the Cheltenham meeting. I’m not a massive stats man but there are a few I follow, especially at Cheltenham.

Before researching everything again I decided on the off chance to do a Google search, to see if I could find the stats I had lost. The search picked up bowles’ thread in the Cheltenham section and it turned out he had all bar two of the stats I originally had – that saved me bundles of time obviously, so I felt I should contribute something myself. I then moved over to the main racing section, got a nice welcome and stayed. 2. Your avatar appears to be Racing silks, how are these significant? They are my own silks, worn by the horses owned with my dad and a mate. 3. Do you think the PL differs or offers anything more than the many other betting forums out there? Yes it differs, thankfully! I’ve browsed other sites and posted on Betfair’s forum but there is no comparison. The sense of community that PL has is missing elsewhere. Plus PL is moderated well, the lack of moderation totally ruins other forums. 4. You won an award in the PL Oscars 2008 for 'Best Newcomer on the ATR', how did it feel to be nominated by fellow members? I was very pleased obviously. It’s nice to know your contribution is recognised, as all are on here. 5. Your first post was in the 'Cheltenham 2008' sub forum, do you think these are a good idea and should we have more?

Yes they are a great idea, especially seeing as people like to talk about Cheltenham during the weeks leading up to it. The Cheltenham sections keeps it all under one roof, the threads may get lost in the main section. I suppose Royal Ascot would be the obvious choice for possible sub forum – the only thing against it I can think of would be the lack of traffic.

6. You often start threads on various racing subjects, Pace, Trainers, Stats, Jockeys, Big Races to name a few, are you pleased with the feedback on these topics from other members or do you think more should get involved in these type of discussions? I’m always pleased to get some discussion going in these threads, and we usually do, however I do feel more should get involved or start similar threads. The only criticism (if you can call it that) I have of PL is that I do feel there is a little too much “smash and grab”, people looking for tips only without making contributions. Tipping will always be the backbone of the section but it would be nice if we had a mix of tipping and discussion. 7. You seem to support the competitions on the PL, do you think these are an important part of the forum? Absolutely, the BBOTD thread is always a busy one and keeps the section ticking over on a quiet day. They create friendly competition among members too, which is great. The BBOTD comp is run brilliantly, not a day goes by without the tables getting updated, it deserves the support it gets and I have taken it very seriously this year. When possible, only my very strongest bets make that thread. 8. Is there anything that annoys you on the PL or improvements that you would make? Nothing annoys me as such, just what I touched on earlier regarding other discussion. I don’t think any improvements can be or need to be made. 9. The ATR section can be a very busy place and open to abuse, how do you think it is Moderated ?

I think the place is moderated very well. A huge amount of the time there always seems to be at least one mod online so very little gets past you lot! Like I said earlier there is good spirit, if you like, so rules are rarely broken by regulars. Obviously newer members can make a mistake when getting used to the place, and of course there is always the odd spammer but it seems to me these things are dealt with correctly and swiftly. 10. The PL has always held onto its principles regarding rules for posting, for example requiring reasoning to tips etc.. do you think this is a good thing? It was a bold move to be fair, as you’re asking people to give away possible secrets really. That could deter one or two, or at least worry them. That said I think it’s an important starting-point rule, it raises the overall quality of the place and stops numerous one-word “cert” posts you get elsewhere. Horse Racing & Betting 1. What got you interested in Horse Racing? Well my dad is a big gambler. He was more of a greyhound man and I use to go dog racing with him quite a bit. He never encouraged me with horse racing, quite the opposite in fact, and rightly so. At the time he felt the game was too hard, he’d never take me to a betting shop or anything like that. However, the game was around me, so I suppose it was inevitable. In the blood.

2. What type of racing do you enjoy the most and why, flat, NH, Big races, sprints, classics, AW? I will always be predominately a flat handicap punter. I feel this is the area where my edge is greatest. There are daily mistakes made by the handicapper and odds-compilers in handicaps and I like to think I spot the odd one. I’m sure it’s the same with jump handicaps, I’m just don’t spot as many. In Group races the form is in the book for all to see, weights are compressed so it’s solely down to rating previous performances, the market tends to get that right – so little edge. You must disagree with the masses at this game, if you don’t, you won’t win and I don’t see many opportunities to disagree in big races, if that makes sense.

3. If you could change one thing in Racing or Betting overnight, what would that be?

If I had a magic wand I’d improve the general standard of jockeys at the moment. We’re currently in the worst era of jockeys. I don’t blame them solely, their schedules these days are ridiculously busy and as a result they have no time to stick their heads in the formbook and actually think about their rides.

Realistically speaking, I would ban watering unless the word “firm” appeared in the going description.

With regards to betting, I would love to see bookmakers allow punters to choose their own E/W terms, as some have done with golf betting. 1/6 the odds the first 6, 1/9 the odds the first 9 home etc. For big fields of course – I’m dreaming obviously. 4. Can you remember your first bet, how old were you and where did you put it on?

It would have been on a dog while at the track as a kid. My dad would give me a pound and I’d always ask him to put it on Trap 1 – always. Was probably around 6 or 7 at a guess. My first horse bet was £1 E/W on Imperial Black in the 1985 Grand National. Again my Dad would ask my sisters and I to pick out something and he would put it on for us, similar to most families I suppose, the Grand National was a big thing in our house. I picked it because I was an 8yo Star Wars fanatic and thought it sounded a bit like a Star Wars baddie. It come 6^th in memory serves, perhaps someone can confirm this? My methods have improved since. 5. Can you reveal your biggest win to date, you dont have to be specific about the amount but what was it on?

Well my biggest wins to date were just strong fancies that came along at a time when I was staking at my largest, rather than being the most confident of selections. There were two in a period of a couple of days that were almost identical amounts. Mister Monet winning at Ascot back in 2004 – I just remember the horse hacking up after not getting a clear run. The other was a 2yo called Cammies Future who won a maiden earlier that week. I do not stake to those amounts these days. 6. I'm sure you have had many 'near misses' with bets, do any stick in your mind?

Too many. But yes, there are a few that hurt more than others…

Horner Woods 2^nd in this year’s RSA Chase, I backed him at prices up to 280 on Betfair and had he gone one place better he would’ve been the answer to the question above.

Yesterday 2^nd in the 2003 Oaks, four colleagues and I backed her ante-post around a year before the race. We had £1000 to win at 40/1 with William Hill. She was 10/3 fav at the off and was the unluckiest horse I’ve seen in a classic, form line reads….“Held up in midfield, 9th straight, not clear run twice over 2f out, closed on leaders but nowhere to go 1f out, switched left, ran on well, unlucky”

Ad Hoc brought down in the 2002 Grand National. I had backed him ante-post E/W at 33/1, 25/1, 20/1, 16/1 and 14/1. He was 8/1 favourite the week of the race I think. Was absolutely cantering when brought down 4 out. This too would’ve beaten the two bets spoken about in the previous question.

7. What was the last horse race meeting you attended?

Brighton, a couple of weeks ago.

8. Do you bet on other sports, if so which ones?

Occasionally have a football bet in whatever division Millwall are in, based on what I’ve seen that season. I also play on Wimbledon every year, mistakes are still made by layers and there are huge trading opportunities due to in-running over reactions. In a tight match a player can go from 1.9 to 2 just because he/she has failed to get a first serve in, unreal. 9. Do you bet online or still visit the high street? Which do you prefer?

90% online. If I’m out socialising or whatever I may have a bet in a betting shop with mates but it would only be a press up on something I’m already on. 10. Do you think Horse Racing is 'clean' at the moment and does this effect the way you bet?

Nowhere near, and yes I suppose it does affect the way I bet. I try and second-guess certain yards and connections. If you accept it’s unclean then you can factor that in, that way winning is still possible. 11. Are the punishments handed out to 'Careless' or 'Reckless' jockeys enough to deter them nowadays?

Nowhere near. A four-day ban no deterrent if it means winning a big race by breaking the rules. The only way to keep jockeys in line is to amend results. We’ve lost our way with S.E.’s over the years. 12. Are you still involved in racehorse ownership, can you tell us any you have an interest in at the moment?

Yes, five at the moment. Choreography would be my favourite but he has lost his way a little this year. We had our 10^th winner last month (Hypnotic).

Professional Punter 1. When did you decide to go full time punting and why at that time?

2004. I had just been on a fantastic run, had a nice bankroll and it was at a stage in life where there would be no immediate commitments. If I didn’t do it then it may never have happened. 2. In your opinion what sort of bankroll would you need behind you?

It really depends on your punting style, other commitments and how much you want to earn. A single bloke with no mortgage could make a go of it with £25,000. If you have a mortgage to pay and a family you need to a bigger pot in case of losing spells. With those sort of commitments I wouldn’t entertain the idea until I had six-figures of winnings behind me.

3. Has your betting strategy changed over the years?

Yes, and it will continue to. Even winning punters should look to improve. As recent as last year I found something I could improve on. I would’ve won more had I cut down on savers and had more confidence in my “bankers”. So that is something I looked to change for this season. In fact it was BH who started my research on the subject if memory serves, on my “Upper Class” thread he mentioned that my “bankers” often won and asked would I be winning more if I backed them solely, or something similar. Another victory for PL!

4. You often hear of 'Pro Punters' complaining about not being able to get their bets on, have you experienced this?

Very much so. It’s probably the biggest problem I face.

Independents are a waste of time, you get barred too quickly. The last time I bothered with an Independent was about a year ago when I was forced into shop betting due to PC problems. I chose the local independent where my girlfriend lives as they offered “back prices”, although after a handful of bets they refused me the back prices and I was to bet at board prices only. Fair enough, I stayed as that wasn’t the only reason I was there, the independents get a different feed into the shops – no buffoons spouting rubbish between races and hardly any virtual sh*t. It’s quieter and more comfortable. However, even at board prices I was barred after a number of days. I understand why, independents have to look at things differently, it may be the blokes only shop for example. However it’s how they deal with the banning that riles me. They all think you’re “at it”, after I left the shop he told all the regulars I was trading/arbing on Betfair with his prices. Firstly I wasn’t allowed “back” prices, only board prices so where was the edge? Betfair prices are bigger than current board prices, how could I be arbing? Secondly, purposely I down-staked for this period in order to get laid. So the fact that he suggested I was arbing, given the amounts I was staking AND considering I was apparently working with a “partner on Betfair” just sums up how ludicrous the suggestion was, a face-saving exercise only.

On-course bookmakers are a joke, only a handful of firms will lay you and even those they will pick and choose when to. Betfair is fine if you want to back fancied horses and/or you want to play just prior to the race. If you want to back bigger priced horses in the morning then, if it’s not at a big meeting, you cannot get decent amounts on at the price you want.

5. What media do you use for your research, form reading etc...?

A lot of research is from what I have seen, but with regards to form reading and info searches it’s only racingpost.com – in a different league to anything else out there.

6. You seem to anylise your results in depth, especially the losers, and often come up with an explanation whether it be a poor ride or trouble in running etc.. Does this help with dealing with losses, is this more of a confidence boost?

A bit of both I suppose. Getting closure on a losing selection definitely helps me mentally. I don’t need help to cope with the financial loss, that is irrelevant, I look for reasons as to why something happened. For future reference I need to know if I was right or wrong, or at least on the right track. Is the horse to be followed or forgotten etc. Was my way of thinking correct? Sometimes you cannot find a reason of course, but I always try and learn something from a losing bet, no matter how small. I cannot stress how important post-race analysis is.

7. What would an average day for you conisist of at the moment, for example does the form reading start the day before, how long does it take to decide your selections etc..?

Most of my studying is done the night before, however some selections are born from research or monitoring that have taken place weeks or months in advance. I may have a horse in the notebook that I have monitored for weeks before backing it.

If I’m quiet I may start studying two days in advance, and on occasions I make a decision on the day on the race. It varies really, but I’d say that 80% of my bets are decided before I go to sleep the previous night.

Time spent per selection also varies. Sometimes I believe a horse is so well handicapped that the studying time is very small, I already had this horse in mind for example – as I touched on above. Other times I will mull a race over for hours, not with my head in the formbook, just thinking about how the race will be run etc. And there are times when I have no initial opinion and will go through the handicap one by one, a big race, with draw and pace research can take a few hours.

In the mornings I will check for going changes and the markets, play early if possible, then usually have a couple of hours to myself before racing starts.

8. Are you very active in the 'in running' markets and has this been a big help to the Professional Punter?

Not as active as some but they are a massive help to the pro punter – totally revolutionised the game.

I’m generally more of a “saver” in-running than a backer. Laying my selections at very short prices (if possible) for insurance purposes. I may back (or save) on a selection based on what I see but it will not be just a case of thinking something is travelling, it will be based on pace and pre-race worries (draw etc) turning out unfounded.

If you’re a serious punter and not taking any advantage of in-running markets then you are making a mistake.

9. Do you feel your judgement can be affected by previous results or can you treat each day as it comes?

Judgement never affected, although I have to be careful with stakes. Getting stakes right after a poor run can be tricky. Staking too big in order to level the books, or staking to little due to damaged confidence is something I’m aware of. 10. I find some of the articles on your blog very interesting, do you enjoy the work on the blog since it started?

Definitely. I love writing and want to improve my skills in that area. I would knock up more articles if I had the time. The diary, which is duplicated from the blog, is pretty time consuming (and can be a little monotonous) so it’s a case of fitting them in when I can. Once night racing is over I plan to work on more articles.

11. Would you say you have made a success at Betting and happy where you are right now or do things still concern you?

Yes I made a success but I’m not 100% happy, things do still concern me. There are areas where I am totally happy but there are others where I feel I can improve. I don’t think it’s healthy to rest on your laurels, until you have a 100% S/R there is always room for improvement. 12. Ever wondered about the future, living and breathing Racing and Betting like you do, how does it stop? How do switch off from it all one day? I don’t switch off, ever. So I don’t think it will ever stop. We all know how tough this game is; you cannot do things by half, not if you want to make it pay.

I’m “on” as soon as I wake up until the moment I go to sleep, to a point anyway. It is the only way in my opinion and it will be the case until I decide to retire, which I can’t see happening.

Poker 1. When did you start playing Poker?

Years ago, before it got popular anyway. Put it this way one of my online usernames is “Worm” (Ed Norton’s character in Rounders), that’s how early I joined up! You’d have to be “UKw0Rm1976” these days, if you’re lucky. 2. What is your favourite type of Poker?

Pot-limit Omaha Hi-lo 3. How many hours a week do you play the game?

Depends on the time of year, during the flat season I go weeks without playing. Close to 60 hours a week in my peak (over two years ago now). 4. Do you prefer to play 'live' or 'online'?

Live I suppose, especially for cash poker, although with tournaments I’m more successful online, I think this is because you can play so many in a night and therefore luck is evened out. 5. Do you have any ambitions to play in the 'big' live tournaments around Europe and America?

Unfortunately I’ve never played in any big tournaments (WSOP, EPT etc). Playing big cash games instead of big buy-in tournaments in the past is something I regret. If one comes along at the right time I would like to play. 6. What has been your biggest success to date at the tables?

Probably surviving in two really tough games I used to play. The first would be the £100 game at the Vic that was contested by all the best Vic players at the time and at a later date a private game that had some decent big players in, couple of well-known footballers and a player who is now seen as one of the best in the world. I smashed him to bits back then. J 7. Whats the worst 'bad beat' you have encountered, we all remember those?

Lost an all-in in the first hand of the £500 Omaha Hi-Lo (European Championships at the Vic) a couple of years ago. My opponent was less than 1% to scoop the pot, but scoop he did. Decent hi-lo tournaments do not come around that often and I had waited a long time to play one such as this locally. 8. Did you ever think playing Poker full time would be more profitable than betting for a living?

Yes, at one stage I did. Until a couple of years ago I definitely thought poker could be as profitable. That opinion has changed drastically. 9. Do you have any tips or advice for anyone just starting to learn the game?

Play as much as you can, especially live. Read as much as you can, if only to get an idea of how other players see the game.

Don’t spend too much time (if any) at micro-levels, it’s a non-game and could be damaging to your progress. Move on to 25c/50c as soon as you can afford, and be prepared to lose. It will be financially better long term than grinding it out at 5c/10c, you’re not learning anything about how opponents act at that level.

That’s just my opinion of course. 10. What are your goals as far as Poker in the future, or is it just a hobby?

Over the past couple of years poker has taken a back seat, only really gave it any real time outside of the flat season. However given my success on NH racing this winter I think it’s likely that poker will be little more than a hobby from now on. Quick Questions 1. What is your homepage at the moment?

I have tabbed homepages, Racing Post, Betfair, Oddschecker, and Punters Lounge. 2. Name a site on your favourites that may surprise us?

www.britishdressage.co.uk, a Linzi influence. 3. Favourite Music, song, band?

Vast, as most would say but swing would be top of my list. Sinatra, Bobby Darin, Dean Martin etc. Sinatra’s “That’s Life” and Darin’s “Mack The Knife” would be two of my favourite songs. Massive Amy Winehouse fan also, “Back To Black” is one of the greatest albums ever made. 4. Favourite TV show, not sport related?

The Simpsons will always be No1 although The Inbetweeners and King Of Queens are current flavours of the month. I’d watch comedy all night. 5. What was the last book you read?

The Lord Of The Rings about 6 years ago. Just don’t have the time to read. 6. What would you do for a living if it wasnt in betting?

I’d be in the industry somewhere, probably still at the Racing Post. 7. What Car do you drive or would like to own one day?

I don’t drive, never even taken a test. 8. Do you have any hobbies away from sport?

No. 9. How long have you followed Millwall?

Since I knew what football was basically. I didn’t really have a choice in the matter, have early memories of being dressed in Millwall kits even before I saw a ball kicked. I started going in early 1986 though, aged 9. 10. What gadgets do you own, Ipod, Mobile, Xbox, etc...

Ipod and a Blackberry although the most important thing in my life is the laptop. When something goes wrong it’s like losing an arm. 11. Do you prefer Racing UK, ATR or Channel 4?

I like both RUK and Channel 4, both give the viewers decent info, paddocks shots, going down to post etc. Channel 4 has the odd buffoon on board though. 12. Biggest personal achievement?

I think they are still to come. ___________________________________________ Any questions you thought I should have asked but didnt, feel free to pose them and i'm pretty sure Bill will be pleased to answer them BH