bowles10 Posted July 7, 2009 Share Posted July 7, 2009 Basically this is going to combine 2 systems i have been researching, i have been putting all the results on the main ATR page & found that 3yo's find it tough winning all aged handicaps & since trialling laying these horses have racked up 65 lays with only 4 winning. Took a bit of time today researching where they actually do win races & found a number of filters that have shown a profit in the last 6 seasons with a steady strike rate of over 30% I will try to keep all the selections in here in terms of lays & ones to back. In order to keep losses to a minimum, each lay will carry a max price of 11.00 allowing for a max loss of 20pts per bet with a 2pt stake I am not going to reveal the factors for the ones to BACK as i would rather keep this to myself for now. Apart from 3yo's in an all aged handicap, there are 7 other factors i have included. The average across the 6 seasons is around 10 bets in July, already 6 have run this month, so i would only expect perhaps another 5 or 6 this month especially as the system is ground related also. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 7, 2009 Author Share Posted July 7, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Just when i find something, the ground changes! Lays Newmarket 5.30 Dancourt - LAY £3.44 @ 6.80 (liability £19.95) 5 runs (already ran in a hcap) Catterick 3.30 Fin Vin de leu - LAY £4.08 @ 5.3 (liability £19.99) 10 runs (already ran in a hcap) Catterick 4.40 Dark Moment - LAY £2 @ 11.00 (Liability £20) 6 runs (already ran in a hcap) Backs No bets Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Dancourt finishing at 3/1 means it would have been a BACK & not a lay as it fits the criteria of the BACK system! That is annoying as i felt the ground would be g/soft & that Dancourt wouldnt be under 9/2!!! Shows as a loser on the LAY bets but would have been bet 1 on the BACK selections, unfortunately i wasnt around to check the price beforehand today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Just when i find something, the ground changes! Lays Newmarket 5.30 Dancourt - LAY £3.44 @ 6.80 (liability £19.95) WON 5 runs (already ran in a hcap) Catterick 3.30 Fin Vin de leu - LAY £4.08 @ 5.3 (liability £19.99) LOST:ok 10 runs (already ran in a hcap) Catterick 4.40 Dark Moment - LAY £2 @ 11.00 (Liability £20) LOST:ok 6 runs (already ran in a hcap) Backs No bets Will now not include any that are either / or if i am not around to check the price changes on the day as Dancourt would have been a BACK had i left it to nearer the time bet 1 -£19.95 bet 2 +£4.08 bet 3 +£2 will take commission off when i do a full update Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Lays Warwick 3.30 LAY Longboat key £5 @ 5.0 Liability £20 Folks 5.05 LAY Heart of Tuscany £2.50 @ 9.0 Liability £20 Lays - over 11.0 (no bet due to price) Other lays today but prices exceed 11.0 would be: 2.55 Warwick Golden Destiny (this is around 11.5 at the moment so may add later if price gets matched) 4.05 Warwick Aunt Nicola & Mamlakati 3.55 Folks Tightrope Backs 2 horses i am looking at to BACK are: 2.55 Warwick Victoria Sponge (currently around 3/1) 4.05 Warwick All for you (around 2/1) Both fit the system criteria but the price is the key factor as well so nearer the off time, i will confirm. Horses that fit both criteria's 4.55 Newmarket Green Beret is another i am watching if it comes down in price. It has to be 9/2 or under to be a bet today, if not its a lay! Will be back around 2.30 to consider Victoria Sponge as a bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system BACK 2.55 Warwick VICTORIA SPONGE 5pts win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 2.55 Warwick LAY Golden Destiny £2.22 @ 10.00 (liability £19.98) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 2 of the 3 lays have been beaten but Victoria Sponge was disappointing ending up 4th. Just waiting on a show for the 4.05 Warwick I need All for you to drift out to 2's if possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Warwick 4.05 LAY AUNT NICOLA £2.27 @ 9.8 (liability £19.98) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Warwick 4.05 BACK - ALL FOR YOU 5pts win @ SP Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Warwick 4.05 LAY AUNT NICOLA £2.27 @ 9.8 (liability £19.98) :ok Warwick 4.05 BACK - ALL FOR YOU 5pts win @ SP :$ thought this was on the drift & needed 2/1 + for the system. This is getting hard to track as this ended up 6/4 Fav which again would make it a LAY. I think i need to try the factors without SP price! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 4.55 Newmarket BACK GREEN BERET if under 9/2 SP (5PTS WIN) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system all 9 3yo's were beaten today in all aged handicaps, so all 3 main lays were landed. The 3 backs were all beaten albeit All for one started 6/4 SP so wouldnt have qualified. Some more LAYS tonight Epsom 8.30 LAY Tarzan £10.40 @ 2.92 (liability £19.97) 9.00 LAY My Kingdom £3.33 @ 7.0 (liability £19.98) Doncaster 7.10 LAY Interdiamonds £7.27 @ 3.75 (Liability £19.99) 7.10 LAY Spensley £4.54 @ 5.4 (liability £19.98) 8.15 LAY Bombina £9.09 @ 3.2 (liability £20) 8.15 LAY Offchance NR 8.15 LAY Honimiere £2.63 @ 8.6 (liability £19.99) to follow 9.15 Kheylide 9.15 La capriosa Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 9.15 race, both selections are over 11.00 so no lay for me. After a great day of lays, i have thinking again about staking & & may be reviewing this thread changing the staking plan to a type of drip thread using % of bank only to avoid a large liability. will post up the results later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Firstly a list of yesterdays results LAYS Warwick 3.30 Longboat key +£5.00 :ok Folks 5.05 Heart of Tuscany +£2.50 :ok 2.55 Warwick Golden Destiny +£2.22 :ok 4.05 Warwick Aunt Nicola +£2.27:ok Mamlakati no bet due to price above 11.0 horse unplaced 3.55 Folks Tightrope no bet due to price above 11.0 - horse unplaced Epsom 8.30 Tarzan +£10.40 :ok 9.00 My Kingdom +£3.33 :ok Doncaster 7.10 Interdiamonds +£7.27 :ok 7.10 Spensley +£4.54 :ok 8.15 Bombina +£9.09 :ok 8.15 Honimiere +£2.63 :ok Epsom 9.15 Kheylide no bet due to price above 11.0 horse unplaced 9.15 La capriosa no bet due to price above 11.0 horse unplaced. Total profit £49.29 Minus commission 5% profit total £46.78 BACKS Warwick 2.55 Victoria Sponge 4th 5/2 Fav 4.05 All for you 3rd 6/4 fav would not have been a system selection due to SP Newm 4.55 Green Beret 4th 9/2 fav Total loss -15pts (-10pts on system selections) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Possible lays today Newmarket 4.55 Classic Vintage Cool strike Nice time Ascot 3.00 Bernie the bolt York 3.20 Happy Anniversary York 3.55 Cosmic sun York 5.05 Mister laurel Angelo Poliziano Possible backs today Newmarket 4.55 Pictorial York 3.55 Whispering gallery will check prices at lunchtime today to see what lays are under 11.0 The 2 back selections are likely to fit my system, so will look at them a bit later also Havent looked at tonight yet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system another possible back is also in the 3.55 York Cosmic Sun which is trading around 4/1 at present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system struggling with getting any LAY prices at under 11.0 today I have reduced the liability on prices under 6.0 3.00 Ascot LAY Alanbrooke £7.35 @ 2.36 (liability £10) 4.55 Newmarket LAY Classic Vintage £2.32 @ 9.6 (liability £19.95) still looking at Pictorial in the 4.55 (currently around 5/1) & also the 2 in the 3.55 York Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system AlanBrooke won so glad i reduced the liability the 3.55 race i have left as there are 2 possibles to back Cosmic Sun & Whispering gallery but will leave this one for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 4.55 Newmarket Pictorial BACK at SP return 7.25 at Newbury is another possible to back with Burma Rock & Burns Night the 2 3yo's Other lays tonight would be Chester 9.20 New tricks (price above 11.0) Cheps 7.35 LAY Red suede shoes £3.44 @ 6.8 (LIABILITY £19.95) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 10, 2009 Author Share Posted July 10, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system struggling with getting any LAY prices at under 11.0 today I have reduced the liability on prices under 6.0 3.00 Ascot LAY Alanbrooke £7.35 @ 2.36 (liability £10) WON :$ 4.55 Newmarket LAY Classic Vintage £2.32 @ 9.6 (liability £19.95) LOST :ok still looking at Pictorial in the 4.55 (currently around 5/1) & also the 2 in the 3.55 York 4.55 Newmarket Pictorial BACK at SP return UNPL :$ 7.25 at Newbury is another possible to back with Burma Rock & Burns Night the 2 3yo's Other lays tonight would be Chester 9.20 New tricks (price above 11.0) Cheps 7.35 LAY Red suede shoes £3.44 @ 6.8 (LIABILITY £19.95) :ok 3 lays today Alanbrooke -£10 Classic Vintage +£2.32 Red suede shoes +£3.44 Total after commission -£4.26 1 back today Pictorial -5pts There were 3 winners today Cool strike 9/1, Cosmic Sun 7/2 & Alanbrooke 4/5. I havent counted up all the 3yo runners as there were a number tonight that were beaten. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 3rd attempt today after PC probs!! 2.20 Asc LAY Midnight cruiser £3.10 @ 7.4 (Liability £19.84) 2.20 Asc BACK Mabuya @ SP 2.35 York Fesko 23.0 Price too high - NO BET more to come..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 2.20 result Midnight cruiser nowhere :ok Mabuya 2nd :$ next bet is 3.45 York LAY Quai D'Orsay £3.84 @ 6.2 (liability £19.97) 3.10 york Alazeyab (34.0) & Ra Junior (40.0) are priced too high - NO BET 4.00 will be next race after this one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system pC problems !! Missed the 4.00 race but laid Diggeratt & the other 3yo's didnt figure 4.40 Chester is next race This has a short favourite as my lay so the liability will be £10 LAY ACT OF KALANISI £7.10 @ 2.4 (liability £9.94) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system thought we had a nice lay there with the short fav, only led actually on the line & looked beaten up to that point:$ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system maybe a few later tonight 6.05 race Hamilton 2 3yo's both priced around 36.0 so NO BET 6.20 race Salisbury Hillside lad is priced 16.5 at the moment NO BET Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Hillside wins @ 16/1 lucky i restricted the liability to those priced 11.0 or under !! 8.30 is the next race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Interesting night with Petsas Pleasure winning the 8.45 race at 6/1, Crimea won the 7.40 @ 5/1, Curacao won the 8.30 @ 11/2 with the other 2 3yo's unplaced. Overall today 16 3yo's ran against thier elders 5 winners at 2/1, 6/1, 5/1, 11/2, & 16/1 the best return all week my bets today were Lays Midnight Cruiser Lost +£3.10 :ok Quai d'Orsay Lost +£3.84 :ok Act of Kalanisi Won -£9.94:$ -£3.40 on the day Backs Mabuya 2nd -5pts Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system Lays (to date) 9th July 3 bets 2/1 Succesful lays 2 P/L -£13.87 10th July 10 bets 10/0 Succesful lays 10 P/L +46.78 11th July 3 bets 2/1 Succesful lays 2 P/L -£4.26 12th July 3 bets 2/1 Succesful lays 2 P/L -£3.40 Backs (to date) Bets 4 Wins 0 P/L -20pts (5pts per bet) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowles10 Posted July 13, 2009 Author Share Posted July 13, 2009 Re: Bowles' 3yo handicap system 3.0 Ayr Northside Prince LAY 4.00 Ayr Pacific Bay LAY/BACK ? Tellelle LAY Brierty LAY Granny McPhee will be too high a price for this - NO BET Prices to be added later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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