shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Just for the reason that a friend of my fathers has been using this pattern and he recons he is winning. But obvioulsy as you, we are a little skepiticle! Since the middle of may we have been following it on paper, just jotting down if the day had a winner with odds of above 1 and for some reason most did leading us to believe that it could be profitable. Thanks. Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Ok so here are todays selections: DAYTIME- Catterick 2.20 Lingfield 2.45 Lingfield 3.20 Newmarket 3.45 EVENING - Worcester 6.40 Worcester 7.10 Kempton 7.50 Worcester 9.10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Well,that was a bucket of doo doo wasnt it. Above,in one of your posts you said that you should have backed the fav in the 2.45 & that that would have meant stopping in profit??????????? In your rules you state that if the fav is odds on,back the 2nd fav............Well that horse was 1/2 so how in Gods name would it have qualified. Sorry,but it looks like the goalposts are starting to move about a bit? THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trilobite Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help i wont give my opinion on this system, however, why not go to Adrian Massey Favs stats Custom Report. Tick Clear Favourite Set the Year to 2009 Set the Month to June Set the odds to evens and above Tick Include List of Selections Set the Max Number in Selections List to 1000 Paste the results into a spreadsheet and easily work out your system for last month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help As you can probably tell im a little new to betting. But what i origianally said was if the odds are lower than 1 then do not back them and as this shows the odds were now lower than one Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Lol. Just make your mind up. Is it going to be ................ odds on then back 2nd favourite or what? THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help there does appear to be several flaws at the moment. The rules need clear definition and more importantly reasoning behind them if there are two meets at the same time how do you decide which is the 2nd and which is the 3rd for instance? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help KThom. By eliminating the Oirish races,there will not be any races that clash. I think yesterday I would have been a quarter point up on the days racing and the same result as shadow at nite. Today I have the same as shadow for nite races,but I differ during the day with. 2.10 Ling. 2.35 newm. 3.10 Newm. 4.05 catt. cheers. THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Ahhh yes fair one. And no horse below evens should be backed correct? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help KThom. As I understand(or should that be "understood")it. If the favourite is odds on,then back the 2nd favourite to win,but I'm not sure now. Thats the way I am looking at it anyway. One other thing,does shadow mean odds from the market or from Betfair(there could be discrepancies there too). THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Ok so there has been a little confussion on the odds part - myself included. I have been in touch with my dad's friend and he said the "dont back the fav if odds are lower than 1" refers to to decimal odds on william hill. BUT as someone pointed out, i think it was Kthom odds of lower than 1 do not exist. So i called him back with this and he then said "ohh i didnt mean that, i ment if the fractional odds are less than 1 which would make the decimal odds less than 2" By now im slightly confused - as i see if from above it is only back horses with odds better than evens right? Again sorry about all the confussion. And the other thing is I mean odds from the WilliamHill website. @the man - for the evening races i have this: newmark....lingfiel....catterick 1.30..........2.10...........2.20 2.00..........2.45...........2.55 2.35..........3.20...........3.30 3.10..........3.55...........4.05 3.45.........4.30............4.40 So Catterick 2.20 Lingfield 2.45 Lingfield 3.20 Newmarket 3.45 How did you get your results THE MAN? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help My God. Thankyou to shadow for clearing all that up...........................I'm now more confused than ever. If you dont know the difference between evening & daytime racing(Your post above),your goose is surely cooked. My interpretation of YOUR system would be thus. 3-5-8-13 in strict timed order(both nite & day) If fav is odds on(on BF)then back 2nd fav. Thats a simple idea,that is easly carried out(IF your bank is big enough). THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Please do enlighten us with your staking plan furlong as I see no way for this system yo work without a correlation between the odds and staking level Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Well that looks pretty good. Is there any chance you can send me over a copy of the spread sheet mike? ([email protected]) Also you said that you use this staking system on your own selections. How do your selections compare to the ones above for profits? aka is this system any good? Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help What are the two odds columns 5&6 representing? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Well that looks pretty good. Is there any chance you can send me over a copy of the spread sheet mike? ([email protected]) Also you said that you use this staking system on your own selections. How do your selections compare to the ones above for profits? aka is this system any good? Adam Hi Adam Will send a copy asap. Have to say that my selection system does not rely on 'random number selection' for want of a better phrase ;) but results so far look promising and compares favourably with my own system. I aim to make around £350 - £400 per week and your 'system' at the moment has 'paper traded' with that target within reach - today will be day 7 so we shall see!! To be realistic i would have to 'paper-trade' this for several weeks before drawing any solid conclusions. Just for your info here are the results from the day meetings - again i have used RP for race time order so these might differ from your own. Showing a profit of £33.75. 08/07/09 10 3 Lincoln 2.10 7 4 5.71 10.00 W 27.50 10 10 5 Newmarket 2.35 9 4 4.44 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 8 Newmarket 3.10 7 4 14.29 15.00 W 41.25 10 10 13 Catterick 4.05 2 1 5.00 5.00 L 15.00 25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help What are the two odds columns 5&6 representing? These are fraction odds. I just enter them into 2 cols and use a simple function to get the stake amount in col 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Ok need time to properly look at your staking - surely using decimals makes calculating easier though? As for the backtesting it's v hard using shadows published methods but by using furlongs proposal this will be relatively easy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Thanks Furlong. I only have a starting bank of £100 so I would need to scale down the stakes by reducing the initial points. Just out of curiosity, to make 350-400 a week what kind of bank do you have? Also I agree that the system propsed above seems to be much better than mine, and the staking system shows good hope - so maybe kthom could run a spreadsheet using the above system. Thanks. Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tafflizgreg Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help can i hae a copy of spreashett please ([email protected]) cheers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 8, 2009 Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hi, Here are the results for day 7 and also the profit figure for my 'paper-trade' over the 7 day period. The Racing Post has been used throughout for race time selection so may differ from those if using Adams(shadow's) rules for selection. Would be interesting to compare though..afraid i haven't had time to do both! Interesting result............ Will get a copy of the s/sheet to those who have asked later tonight. 08/07/09 10 3 Lincoln 2.10 7 4 5.71 10.00 W 27.50 10 10 5 Newmarket 2.35 9 4 4.44 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 8 Newmarket 3.10 7 4 14.29 15.00 W 41.25 10 10 13 Catterick 4.05 2 1 5.00 5.00 L 15.00 25 25 3 Worcester 6.40 9 2 5.56 10.00 L 35.00 45 45 5 Worcester 7.10 11 4 16.36 20.00 L 65.00 75 75 8 Kempton 7.50 4 1 18.75 20.00 L 95.00 105 105 13 Worcester 9.10 2 1 52.50 55.00 W 165.00 10 £1,075.00 £1,493.00 £418.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 8, 2009 Author Share Posted July 8, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Thanks for the email containing the s/sheet. Am i correct with tomorrows selections: DAY TIME: New - 2.00 War - 2.20 War - 2.55 Folk - 3.55 EVENING: Epsom - 6.50 Epsom - 7.25 Don - 8.15 Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hi mike, please email your sheet to [email protected]. I need to fully understand your staking. I can probably self automate your sheet for you too thanks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Furlong Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Thanks for the email containing the s/sheet. Am i correct with tomorrows selections: DAY TIME: New - 2.00 War - 2.20 War - 2.55 Folk - 3.55 EVENING: Epsom - 6.50 Epsom - 7.25 Don - 8.15 Adam Hi Adam Yes, your race times are as per the RP. I am going to follow this with interest - lets see how it works out over the course of a few weeks. Hope the s/sheet helps. Mike Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help do you think the evening races added would make much difference? Clearly we can see that my staking plan does not work lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted July 9, 2009 Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Ummm your staking plan produced the positive yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help ahhh yes lol :wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowvkc Posted July 9, 2009 Author Share Posted July 9, 2009 Re: system spreadsheet - help Hey all. Has anyone done the spreadsheet for today? I got a profit of just £2.00 for Mikes staking system? BUT im not sure I have run the spreadsheet correctly. And i cant copy and paste it here as it is unformatted and looks stupid. Adam Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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