Redcar 20th June 2009

[Lars]

Had one of the most unlucky days of my entire life. Mucking up on Tiger Woods Golf 2009 for the Wii, been pipped on the line twice, especially one which cost me fair whack. Nevermind. And to top it off, tonight's drinking activities were shite! Anyway. I'm gonna focus on one race, the decent quality Win A Vip Day Out at redcarracing.co.uk Handicap (7f) Grade 3. Hope this can be of some use to someone, and I don't end up looking stupid and writing something off. Will be using decimal odds just to clarify.:hope Atlantic Story 014-403 - Top weight in this one, can't really see why either. Has the potential to win races like this, but does better on the all-weather, especially Lingfield and this form hasn't been translated to the turf. Probably due to the fact it's an American horse and prefers the dirt. Best watched in my view. Odds seem to be ridiculously short. // Available at 5.5 at Bet365 Burnwynd Boy 30030-9 - Same weight as above, but claiming jockey will take a little bit off. Form is dreadful really, and to me wasn't that encouraging with it's return. Seems to perform better at 6furlongs, and it's 7 furlong attempts don't see too spectatular. Has raced in better races than this, and has done pretty much nout. Will be surprised if this does anything. // Available at 26 at Bet365 Mastership 080-046 - Yet again, it's best recent performances seem to be on the all-weather. Although a run like that at Newmarket a year ago could see it take this race, did well then and this one could challenge. However it's recent form to me turns me against it. Bookies fancy it a bit,// Available at 5.5 at Bet365 Osteopathic Remedy 69036 - Has had one ride of note at 7f at a better standard than this but since then has raced at 6f and not set the world alight. Back up to 7f might help it somewhat but I'm struggling to make a case. Might improve but I can't be certain at all. // Available at 5 on bet365 Novellan Lad 460-331 - Quite like this horse, won easily at 6f last time out, but this race is a fair notch up in quality, and another furlong. Has raced in this sort of race before and placed. Seems to have improved but I'm not 100% certain whether this is a 6f horse or a 7f. It's wins have mainly come at 6f and that's why I'm cautious of backing it. Will leave my mind to ponder on it, will probably go off favourite. // Available at 4.5 bet365 Spinning 3113-61 - Yet again seems to have found success on the all-weather but at 1m1f. Has actually won it's last two races at 7 furlongs but this was over a year ago, but the drop in trip may suit. Those races aren't in the same league as this one, but won those fairly comfortably. Definitely one to consider and at quite good odds too. In good form also. // Available at 7's on Bet365 Mujjadel 0620-50 - Had a promising start to it's career but seems to have faded a bit. New owners and might be going the wrong way. Fifth at Musselburgh not so long ago could be as good as this one gets at the moment. Form looking back isn't exactly outstanding compared to this field. // Available at 13's on Bet365 Smarty Socks 140165 - Win at Doncaster in April was decent but since then has dropped in form a bit. Seems to struggle from a slow start and giving itself too much to do. Too many times the race comments has been "dwelt" or "started slowly". Decent weight in the race and could do well if it gets a good start. Perhaps an EW opportunity. // Available at 13's on Bet365 Bravely 3-34228 - Didn't do much over 6f where it has been raced last time out but had better fortunes at 7f before that, including a nice second at Newmarket where it kept on well. Not out of the top 4 in it's recent 7f career and could have a chance if things go it's way. However, many of the other horses look a bit better quality and this has a lot to catch up on ratings wise. This discourages me. // Available at 9's Bet365 Verdict Difficult race to call at the moment, but If I had to choose I'd go for SPINNING enjoying the step down in trip and carrying on it's unbeaten track record in 7f races. Ones not to discount include Novellan Lad and Smarty Socks for an EW chance. :hope:hope

[RussP]

Re: Redcar 20th June 2009 Good write up Lars:clap However, I'm opposing you here with 2: Osteopathic Remedy (5/1) - In good form, gone close in last 2 runs, 3lb claimer on top and nice mark today. Be surprised if this horse didn't go very close from off a decent pace. Burnwynd Boy (25/1) - A stupid price really. Ok, no recent form in the book but Dandy is a master at bringing these types back to form. Massive drop in weights and has a major chance on best of its form. Very interesting jockey booking too who has a cracking strike rate for this stable. Will either win or finish last!! Super EW bet. EW on both.