sjuesju Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 I am not so sure is this the best place to post this, but I have to share my surprise with somebody. I started a paper sheet project few weeks ago. Shortly explanation: the project is something about soccer betting on all favorites where the odds for them are over 2.2. What a big surpise came when I saw the first 60 games with more than 50% wins for the favorites. Does anybody has searched for something similar to this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deez Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange What percentage of wins was it? 60 may be too small a sample size though sounds promising! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange The percent is actually 53 multiply by 2.2 minimal gives 116.6% ROI and there were lot of matches high above 2.2. It is strange and may be it is something which will not continue longer. I don't know. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deez Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange Are you doing this for all leagues? I assume its scandinavian and south american leagues mostly at the minute as there the only real summer leagues. may try to back test this a bit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange I takes the odds and the games from betexplorer. You know this site shows average odds and where the site shows that the favorite has odds over 2.2 I bet for it. It is a paper trial, I must add. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange Hi, I have back tested this theory over 12 leagues from the past 5 seasons (my current data set). From 10,070 games, it shows 1,430 winners and 2,228 loosers from a total 3,658 qualifiers. 39% s/r and a loss of 20,469.06 from 100 point level stakes Just my calculations - I wish you luck if you pursue this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange 39% is not enough :) I am trying something with martingale and I expected that percent exactly. However, let me ask you something. Is there in your database any high picks like mine 53% wins for the favorites and the opposite f.e. 100 matches where the favorites took only f.e. 15 games from 100. My question is if we considered 39% for our base could we use those picks, if there is any at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 15, 2009 Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange 39% is not enough :) I am trying something with martingale and I expected that percent exactly. However' date=' let me ask you something. Is there in your database any high picks like mine 53% wins for the favorites and the opposite f.e. 100 matches where the favorites took only f.e. 15 games from 100. My question is if we considered 39% for our base could we use those picks, if there is any at all.[/quote'] not quite sure if I understand what you're asking? I don't have the data stored in chronological order - they are done league by league so looking at any patterns or runs wouldn't be accurate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted June 15, 2009 Author Share Posted June 15, 2009 Re: Somethin strange You have understood what I asked :) but if you have the data round after round the same pattern can be searched I think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: Somethin strange KThom. Utilising your figures above.............does this not scream out to be used as a LAYING system? THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: Somethin strange KThom. Utilising your figures above.............does this not scream out to be used as a LAYING system? THE MANnice thinking THE MAN, but looked at this and the figures only return a 1.89% yield Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE MAN Posted June 16, 2009 Share Posted June 16, 2009 Re: Somethin strange OkeeDokeee KThom. Worth a thought tho' eh :ok THE MAN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: Somethin strange Here are the final stats for the mount. I must say it still amaze me how effective will that be if those number continue. However, I do not believe it. Here are the stats: Favorite’s wins = 46% Draws = 25% Underdog’s wins = 29% All this is from 124 matches played on June. I think the correct percents will be 39-40% wins for the favorites. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted July 1, 2009 Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: Somethin strange thankh you you will play french favori in the next season ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjuesju Posted July 1, 2009 Author Share Posted July 1, 2009 Re: Somethin strange What do you mean? I checked the French League 1 a week ago, but it doesn't show anything profitable. At least the last 5 seasons together didn't. The last one was profitable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted July 2, 2009 Share Posted July 2, 2009 Re: Somethin strange ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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