Best bet of the day - 9/6/09

[fintron]

6.30 Southwell Marufo won over course and distance in April off 9 lb lower and although disappointed at Bangor last time out, is still unexposed in this sphere after just five starts over fences. He seems a bit in and out as he learns the game, but Sam Thomas is an interesting jockey booking and if he jumps a little more cleanly he could run a race given he's proven over CD. 1 pt win

[Lars]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 17:45 Redcar Exams today so a bit of a rushed selection. Efidium ran well LTO out for fifth after being denied a clear run, having to switch and made a lot of ground. Has won off this mark and distance before so it's well in his capabilities. Jamie Kyne on board, who is a top prospect and is on great form at the moment. Was hoping the odds would be slightly better than what they are, so a win bet. 1pt WIN.

[BillyHills]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 700 Southwell: Saddlers Star Cootehill has been handicapping of late and has an OR of just 110, still yet to win off that and meets Saddlers Star on level weights who is rated 120. Saddlers Star was unlucky at Wetherby when falling at the last in a better race than this, flopped last time over 2m5f and returns to the minimum trip here. Duty Free ran ok last time and could improve again. Hopefully the ground will stay good and we dont get any NR's!

[BAGS is BENT]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 LUC JORDAN-4-45 REDCAR. this looks like a very weak maiden,the only slight snag would be how the henry cecil horse has progressed from 2-3. of those to run this year LUC JORDAN has by far the best form,the chepstow form seems pretty good in the context in this race,with the 3rd in that race being a solid yardstick,capable of running to a rating of 75+.there was a 5l gap to the 4th horse,which is a positive sign. PROUD TIMES seems to need the mud IMHO,so unless there is a deluge i cannot have that one,the others to have run this year havent pulled up any tree's!! QUIQUILLO is the dark un..,having showed modest form at 2,if improving at 3 then it could LUC JORDAN plenty to think about.

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 Sails 3.55 Aromatic 1 pt win This is what I said about this one before its handicap win lto, ‘I backed this one lto when it just held on to win its maiden and I thought was value for slightly more than the winning margin as it idled for me a little bit when in front for so long. Nothing has come out of that race yet so its hard to say what that form of worth but I still believe this horse is held in high regard. It showed a lot of promise at hq on debut last year in a maiden that not only has produced some nice types but also that gosden has often targeted with some of his better 2 year old fillies in the past. It races off 78 in a handicap for the first time and it wouldn’t surprise me if this one, who clearly is still held in strong regard with a group 2 entry, can win this one.’ As it was it followed up nicely its maiden win that day and whilst the continued group entry still could be optimistic, she is clearly going the right way and has strong claims again. Cumani’s well thought of Cascata a threat but she was a bit disappointing lto and looks more a staying type, this one might just have a bit too much pace for her and can win again.

[cc75]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 8.45 Chester Bertoliver WIN Philip Robinson's record on this horse is 2 wins from 3; horse's record round this course and distance is 1 win from 2 attempts (loss was in a listed race at 20/1 from bad draw). Now 10lbs lower than for last win (May 08 C&D); drawn well in stall 3 if able to get away sharp; suitable ground conditions and with stable amongst winners, good value for the win tonight at current 5/1.

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09

6.30 Southwell Marufo won over course and distance in April off 9 lb lower and although disappointed at Bangor last time out, is still unexposed in this sphere after just five starts over fences. He seems a bit in and out as he learns the game, but Sam Thomas is an interesting jockey booking and if he jumps a little more cleanly he could run a race given he's proven over CD. 1 pt win

Sorry to be a pain BH, but can I change this....the prices avial on one today are bigger than I expected so I'd like to switch if possible.... 3.55 Salisbury Brooksby is one I followed on a couple of occasions last year. In both races she let me down and she was promptly torn from the notebook, however, I think the opinion that she was well handicapped was justified when she later won at Kempton in November. Whilst she clearly lacks the consistency of some and is more exposed than several of her rivals this afternoon, I do not think she deserves to be 50/1 here and I think she does actually hold valid place claims on the formbook. If we go back to her handicap mark, she was successful off 67 at Kempton, so it is well within the realms of possibility that she could land this race off 6 lb higher (albeit if she is upped from 0-70 to 0-85 company for this), bearing in mind she has had only eight starts and hails from the Richard Hannon yard, who can be relied up to have continued her improvement. There are a couple of other factors that I think make her overpriced here. Firstly, she improved for the fitting of blinkers last term (form figures 31) and the application of a first time visor here may similarly focus her energies. Secondly, she steps up in trip here, and that may also enable her to find the necessairly improvement needed to figure. She has hinted on previous runs she would get further than a mile, for example at Windsor on the 13th October Sporting Life reported, "took keen hold in mid-division, ridden and hung right from over 2f out, kept on final furlong" and then on her next two runs at Kempton, "soon led, ridden and headed over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong" and "led after 1f, shaken up, 2f out, drew clear over 1f out, ran on strongly and driven out". Those nuggets of info, coupled with the fact she is a half-sister to 9-10f winner Topiary Ted and out of a dam who was successful over 8-12f at three, indicates to me she could act over one and a quarter miles here. Richard Hannon has his string in fine form at present and although Jimmy Quinn seems a strange jockey booking I think it may be a case of Hannon's regulars not being able to get down to 8-5 as Ryan Moore, Richard Hughes and Pat Dobbs haven't got down to this weight in the last twelve months. The other question mark is her latest effort when 6th of 9 at Kempton off 1 lb higher, but that was her seasonal reappearance. She showed up well to a point before fading, but with the benefit of that pipeopener may run a bit better this afternoon. Her fate may be decided on whether she is pestered for the lead again, as was the case last time out, but I've seen Jimmy Quinn ride well from the front on Dvinsky and think his mount is there to be chanced at the price today. EW

[wizzkid walter]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 3.55 Salisbury - Aromatic From a top yard (Gosden), holds a Group 2 entry and a solid favourite. Could complete the hat-trick on the way to bigger things. 1 pt win

[DM99]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 Not too much around today that offers good value for money....... 4.30 Salisbury - LAY King of Defence 3rd LTO doesn't mean much in such a poor field. Handles the going reasonably well but will need to step up considerably in a large field full of runners that have recorded better performances in the past. Lay King of Defence (8.0 @ Betfair)

[stewartd14]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 3.20 Salisbury Langland Bay ew @ 10/1 Ran an excellent figure on debut, and if he improves on that, he should go close. The Willie Muir stable is going well. A fair bet. EW :ok

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 ROYAL INTRUDER 5.30 Salisbury. 0.5 points each way. Recent form figures aren't very inspiring, but when looker deeper into things, then it's clear that he didn't run too badly last time, and that form gives him place claims in context with this race. So has a chance anyhow, but with this 6f looking more suitable for him and the ground being more suitable, his chance becomes better. Throw in the fact he gets in off a low looking mark of 69 and it's hard to see him not going close if running to ability. Would be around 12/1 currently and that's a bet for me.

[Pumpit]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 Chester 7.15pm 1pt lay Oriental Cavalier Horse yet to win a race and today will be no diff as a few at biggerodds make more of the race imv,odds are very low for me today and are value,laying. Goodluck Whatever You Bet Today

[skylark2009]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 3.55 Salisbury Aromatic 1pt win In good form lately having won her first two starts this year, won here at this course/distance LTO. She won that race quite well, finding that little bit extra at the finish to win by ½ length. She seems to be progressive and could go well again today running off an OR of 83. she's the only filly in the race that holds a group race entry, so possibly better things could be expected of her.

[south_eastern_ram]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 3.55 Salisbury Maria Di Scozia E/W First run this year but runs very well fresh, generally good form from last year and can definitely stay the trip having won at 1m1f and 1m3f.

[punterpete]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 7.45 Chester Gulided Warrior Win Drops back down class in this evening and is running off same mark as when succesful over course distance back in September.

[DM99]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09

Not too much around today that offers good value for money....... 4.30 Salisbury - LAY King of Defence 3rd LTO doesn't mean much in such a poor field. Handles the going reasonably well but will need to step up considerably in a large field full of runners that have recorded better performances in the past. Lay King of Defence (8.0 @ Betfair)

The bastard drifted out a little before the off yet again! Another successful lay bet for just pennies profit :sad

[Sandgrounder]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 Che.6.45. Maiden race. the Sel is Wigan Lane [Ew] ran 7th. last time, but not beaten far. trainer in form,+ i've been to Wigan a few times each year. It's thursdayalready is a warm fav. and won't be far behind the sel.that's what I hope so.

[Rainbow]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 guilded warrior 735 chest. 1 pt ew s/nap. has won over this course and distance and that's a big plus at this turning, greyhound like, track. gets in off a mark of 86 which gives him every chance and so if dealing with stall 10 ok, which i think he will, which isn't easy here at Chester, i think he will run a big race. the race looks as though it has good chances of being run to suit.

[WHUPUNTER]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 Southwell 8.30 Mizen Raven WIN This horse has been extremely frustrating to follow after finishing second best in his last 4 races. However he has plenty going for him tonight and shrewd trainer Tim Vaughan has placed him well yet again and put him in with a squeak. I love Vaughan's partnership with Johnson (25% wins and over 50% places over past 12 months together) and the horse can finally get his head back in front tonight.

[Falbrav]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 BERTOLIVER 8.45 Chester. 0.5 points each way. Doesn't seem to be firing on all cylinders lately, but I

[Falbrav]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 BERTOLIVER 8.45 Chester. 0.5 points each way. Doesn't seem to be firing on all cylinders lately, but I like the fact that Phillip Robinson has been booked to ride tonight, as that indicates to me that they fancy him to run a bit better. The trip and ground is not a problem and I think he can get a good position from stall 3, and if that's the case then he looks more than capable of going close off a mark of 80.

[ogii55]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 Sowthwell 6.00 Perange 1 pt W Perange has two disapointed races when was pulled. he didn't enjoy both races. 13-years old will be in the better part of the handycap with nice weight advantage over the bigger part of serious condenters (Major Euro, Charmahal and Take it There). The veteran is a horse who may or may not feel the competition. Perange may run very good race for first or second spot or being pulled up or been tailed. I think the horse is in nice form, because before in his career after some bad runs, finished with pulling out from the race, received some months rest. Now the case is different. The distance and the going suits very well to Perange, so he may find something special to the other guys :) GL

[welshman443]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 7-45 chester-guilded warrior- is a course and distance warrior,was successful under this rider over this c/d last september and now back down to same mark here,got a feeling he will run well here tonight but does have to leave his last poor run behind him,but that was in a competitive race-chances

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 S6.30 Marufo 1pt win I've been looking at this for a while and I keep coming back to Marufos win over C&D two starts ago. This form looks sure to see it go close and there's question marks against many of the others. I think the key to the horse is a flat track which is where its best races are reserved for. The trainer also has a very good record at the track and anything around 3/1 looks a fair price if reproducing the course and distance form.

[Trotter]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 8.45 Chester - Supermassive Muse - ew Hasn't won for a while but has run well here before with a win and second to his name from last season Drops in class after running (and getting thrashed) in a class 2 handicap at York. Drawn 6 but the one drawn 5 inside him is a non runner so he should get a bit of space to find a position.

[chris34]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 8.45 Tyrannosaurus rex looks an interesting runner here with several of these in form, recieves a 5lb rise in handicap for a 1length win over 5f on fast ground, good inside draw out of stall 4 but biggest threat does come from stall 1 titus andronicous so defenetily one to watch out for!! 0.5pt e/w tyrannosaurus rex

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09

S6.30 Marufo 1pt win I've been looking at this for a while and I keep coming back to Marufos win over C&D two starts ago. This form looks sure to see it go close and there's question marks against many of the others. I think the key to the horse is a flat track which is where its best races are reserved for. The trainer also has a very good record at the track and anything around 3/1 looks a fair price if reproducing the course and distance form.

5/1 winner :clap

[Boulder5111]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 thanks Fin and well done... I was rushing a bit today so I didn't see your post in which you put forward a much better case than I did ! Nice winner and a decent price too :ok

[fintron]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09

thanks Fin and well done... I was rushing a bit today so I didn't see your post in which you put forward a much better case than I did ! Nice winner and a decent price too :ok

Thanks, shame I went back on it for BBOTD purposes and replaced it for Brooksby, but had it in the thread at least! Well done also Zero and Dudeman with successful lays

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Best bet of the day - 9/6/09 8.45 - Bo McGinty (ew) Decent record (412) over this C&D when the ground is Good or Firmer, including finishing a good 2nd to Supermassive Muse when coming from Stall 8. Weighted to turn that form around with that rival today and today's stall (7), whilst not ideal, is not insurmountable. Stable in good form with 13 wins and 14 places in the last 14 days, and the fact he's drawn in 7 makes his price that much more enticing.