Epsom fri 5th June

[bowles10]

Plenty of Epsom threads on the go, all other selections in here please for this meeting.

[bowles10]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Coronation Cup This is the sort of race you can make a case for all the runners. The trends point the way of 4/5 yo winning with 9 from last 10 with a 6yo winning in 2004 (repeat winner Warrsan) The profile of the winner is normally a proven 1m 4f specialist so outsider Lincoln winner Expresso Star doesnt possess the form to win this. Ask & Youmzain are both 6yo & you could make a decent case for Youmzains form 2nd in this last year, 3rd in the King george & 2nd in the Arc,, very impressive Group 1 performances but no win! Always seems to find trouble & normally unlucky in running, you cant expect gaps at Epsom either. Of the 4 & 5yo's Buccellati has varied form over 10/12f & that worries me, what is its best distance as will have to be on top form today to win this. Duncan steps up in class & again doesnt hold the previous form matching other winners of this race. It is in my notebook & i have backed it but for that reason only as it was mighty impressive last time out, was hoping it would run at Ascot so :hope Gosden has picked the right race here. The Goldolphin horse Eastern Anthem is the typical boys in blue animal, can it perform as well here as it did over the winter, deserves its chance & will be produced late on the outside. Frozen Fire won the Irish Derby last year but failed round here & failed at Chester last time out. Until it shows it likes these type of courses, i wouldnt back it. Look Here is interesting, last years impressive Oaks winner then had a training setback & was brought out for the St Leger over 3f furhter than this on soft ground. Did well to get 3rd but probably didnt stay that day. Will go well if fit enough but with Trainer not really firing yet, might have to settle for a place. I will stick with Duncan who may turn into a decent horse but with Eastern Anthem & Youmzain fighting out the places. I think the race will be won by whoever gets the tactics right on the day!

[bowles10]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Oaks Looking at the last 10 runnings for some pointers, all 10 had won at least 1 race with the minimum being a mile victory. All 10 had no more than 3 runs in current season with 9 having 1 or 2 (no debuts). 7 LTO winners is quite significant with most of those being in the trial races at Newmarket, Chester, Lingfield & Goodwood. 3 winners had only had 2 runs with 8 of the 10 having between 2-5 runs. High Heeled was well beaten by Sariska at York & Barry Hills doesnt have a record in this race so not looking at that one, Cecil has won this 3 times in the last 10 years & won the Lingfield Oaks trial (1 of last 10 won that trial, last years winner was 2nd), has jhad 6 career runs. My Goodness me has alreayd had 8 runs & needs softer ground. Perfect truth has had 8 runs but did win the Cheshire oaks (2007 winner came from that trial). Phillipina is still a maiden & is discounted.. 2 of the last 10 winners came out of the 1000 Guineas (6th & 1st), Rainbow View was the talking horse all winter after its 2yo exploits but still a doubtful stayer in my book. Sariska has the form, did it well at York in the musidora travelling really well beating Star Ruby by a decent margin. The winner came from that race 3 years ago but this does look the best form today. The miniver rose has had 6 runs & doesnt look good enough on what achieved so far, & same goes for Tottie although at 100/1 will attract plenty of support on ladies day! Clive Brittains horse Wadaat was 2nd in the Italian oaks beaten only a nose. so we know it will stay, but finished well beaten behind Midday at Lingfield so dont know what to make of it. On the facts above its between Sariska & Midday for me with Sariska looking to hold an outstanding chance.

[JimmyHarris1980]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June An early mover to keep an eye on is Pegasus Lad in the finale. Available @ 20s open of business today now a best priced 14/1.

[fintron]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Nice write ups Bowles. Already posted my thoughts in the Oaks thread, but on Wadaat 5 pts EW at 33/1 and got a 1 pt double on Midday with Fame And Glory in the Derby tomorrow. 1.40 Epsom I'm on Deposer here. I don't think he is actually that bad a horse and when I was at Chester the other week I remember texting Mowgli and Wizzkid Walter telling them about this bad boy! He was sent off the 33/1 rag in the Dee Stakes (Group 3) and ran a fantastic race under Robert Winston when allowed to dominate. The form figures show he finished fourth but I honest thought I was gonna clean up that day, he was only pipped late on and finished only half a length off the winner. The gelding may thus appreciate this step back in trip and although others looks to hold stronger form claims - the fact he should get an easy lead here should not be underestimated and I am expecting compensation and a bumper payday this afternoon. 20/1 Bet 365, EW

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June 3.25 Epsom - LAKE POET Epsom's one of the tracks in which I place great stock in previous Course form, and there are none better in this line up than the Course form of the top-weight Lake Poet. 3rd in this race in 2006 before winning it in 2007 having just won the Great Met here a couple weeks earlier. He comes into today's race having run a very nice 2nd in the City & Suburban here a couple weeks ago behind the absolute handicap snip, Duncan. In good form, top notch Course form, his trainer's in decent form, and Ryan Moore in the plate who rode 6 at Sandown last night for a 323111 record.

[Samba_SamPa]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June 4.05 Epsom - PERFECT TRUTH Between Sariska and Perfect Truth this for me. Perfect Truth is my main fancy. I don't think she's been the credit she deserves for her Chester win, and Murtagh won't pour it on quite as early this time I don't think. She's by Galileo, dual Derby winner, champion sire of 2008, sire of last year's Derby winner, and a half sister to Endless Power - a respectable ~140 rated animal over the obstacles at up to 2m6f - so there's every reason to believe she can improve again for the step up to 12f. Sariska's Musidora win impressed me most, visually, out of all the trial performances, but there's a nagging stamina doubt about this one being a daughter of Pivotal that I just can't shake - despite that performance. Similar to Midday, who is by Oasis Dream.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	1.40 Epsom
Selection	Hatta Fort (bog) (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	05/06/2009
Bookmaker/Price	>William Hill @ 8.00 (Back)
Reasoning	I am not a fan of Godolphins horses one bit and I cannot remember the last time I backed one of theirs. However, everything is in place for a good run from Hatta Fort in todays Diamed Stakes. In his last two runs over 6 furlongs this horse has been hopelessly outpaced before running on at the finish. Those were in top class sprints and the step upto 8 furlongs should do the trick today. He does seem to be one of Godolphins more genuine horses (they don't have many) and I just think 7/1 is good value despite the trainer and jockey both posing negatives for me.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

Sport	Horse Racing
Event	2.45 Epsom
Selection	Buccellati (bog) (Each-Way)
Strength	5/10
Date	05/06/2009
Bookmaker/Price	Coral @ 10.00 (Back)
Reasoning	This is a horse I have taken a huge liking to over the past few seasons. He is as genuine as they come and he seems to be getting better with age. I really believe he is upto winning a Group 1, especially a race like this were it looks a bit below par in my opinion. Youmzain is obviously the class horse in the race but I can never hit Channons horses spot on, I don't like the guy as a trainer and this horse does need everything to fall right. Buccellati won a farcial Ormonde Stakes last time out and he showed his adaptability making the running that day and sprinting away close home. He is usually held up so that performances shows he can be ridden closer to the front should there be a lack of pace today. The horse he beat that day, Scintillo has since gone onto win a Group race in France and Frozen Fire was well beaten in last and yet is shorter than Buccellati today? Lets face it, the only reason that is the case is because he hails from Ballydoyle. Buccellati easily has the beating of Ask, Duncan and Frozen Fire in the last 9 months and yet he is available at a larger price than all of these horses. I really believe this horse is seriously underrated and his tough as teak attitude and ability to handle sharp courses will stand him in good stead this afternoon. I honestly think he is upto winning this and will be dissapointed should he finish out of the frame.

[Spooner]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

Nice write ups Bowles. Already posted my thoughts in the Oaks thread, but on Wadaat 5 pts EW at 33/1 and got a 1 pt double on Midday with Fame And Glory in the Derby tomorrow. 1.40 Epsom I'm on Deposer here. I don't think he is actually that bad a horse and when I was at Chester the other week I remember texting Mowgli and Wizzkid Walter telling them about this bad boy! He was sent off the 33/1 rag in the Dee Stakes (Group 3) and ran a fantastic race under Robert Winston when allowed to dominate. The form figures show he finished fourth but I honest thought I was gonna clean up that day, he was only pipped late on and finished only half a length off the winner. The gelding may thus appreciate this step back in trip and although others looks to hold stronger form claims - the fact he should get an easy lead here should not be underestimated and I am expecting compensation and a bumper payday this afternoon. 20/1 Bet 365, EW

With you on this one fin, here's to starting the two day meeting with a bang. :hope

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Well, this is actually the first day of the flat season that has got me excited - should be a cracking 2 days racing.

1.40

A decent race to commence the card, and I am happy to discount a fair few of thses. I dont think Hatta Fort or Mac Love stay 1 mile, Vitznau needs some cut, and on form, I dont fancy General Elliot, Without a Prayer or Vitznau. That leaves me with 2, whom I like a lot to take this race. Lovelace Without doubt the value in the race for me. Lovelace is a typical Mark Johnstone horse in that you can always trust him to give his true running. He was more a handicap horse last season, and I always remember him trying to make all in those big fields, and often finding one too good. However, a change of tactics worked a treat at the end of last season, and under hold up tactics he managed to take a £100000 handicap and finish 2nd in the Bunbury Cup on his last 2 runs. This season, he hasnt managed to break into the top tier, however, finishing 4th in a Group 3 on debut and then finishing down the field in the Group 2 Bet365 mile. However, last time out he showed a marked return to form when dropped back to listed level where he finished an extremely unlucky 4th. Bar Confront, I think Lovelace has the beating of everything in this field, and if he reverts to front running tactics to capitalise on the lack of pace, he could go very close. Confront The unexposed horse in the race, who potentially is a lot better than Group 3 class. Excellent as a 2 year old, the horse couldnt overcome injury problems as a 3 year old and only managed 2 average finishes in Conditions company, and looked a horse that was finished. However, kept in training by Sir Michael Stoute as a 4 year old, this horse won in fine style last time at Newmarket. Admittedly, it was only a Class 2 handicap, but the way in which he won it was mighty impressive. If he can improve for that, he will take an awful lot of beating today. Overall, however, at the prices when you consider all the unknowns about Confront, Lovelace has got to be the value poke. Lovelace 10 pts win @ 11/2 Boyle (BOG) Confront 10 pts win @ 7/5 Sportingbet

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

2.10

Plum Pudding, Philario and South Cape appeal to me here, but the strong vote goes to Plum Pudding Plum Pudding Richard Hannon's horse has specialised at Newmarket in recent years, with 4 of his 5 career victories coming there. However, there are some formlines that mean I cant ignore this horse today. First time out this season at Warwick, Plum Pudding won what looked an average conditions race. However, I suspect that this "average conditions race" is a lot better than what people are giving credit for. 4th that day was Winker Watson, a top class 2 year old who has lost his way. 3rd that day was Carcinetto who has come out and won a decent race since. However, the most eyecatching is Dream Eater, who finished 2nd beaten 1 1/4 lengths by Plum Pudding. When Dream Eater ran again, it was in the Bet 365 mile, a Group 2 race, where he finished an excellent 2nd behind Paco Boy. Going by this formline, Plum Pudding is right up there, and would take an awful lot of beating in handicap company considering the horse he beat last time has subsequently been placed in Group 2 company. 10 pts win Plum Pudding @ 5/1 Hills (BOG)

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

2.45 The Coronation Cup

The big issue here is the complete lack of pace, so I am siding with 3 against the field. Ask 5 pts ew @ 6/1 Boyle (BOG) Ask has been constantly knocking at the door in Grade 1 company, and is one of the best stayers in the field. I am backing him in the hope that Ryan Moore is sensible enough to try and make the running given his prominent style of racing and his stamina. Eastern Anthem 5 pts ew @ 10/1 Bet 365 (BOG) Been in sparkling form at Nad al Sheba, likes to lead and stays. Given the way the race will probably work out and Godolphin's good record, this looks overpriced. Expresso Star 5 pts ew @ 40/1 Stan James (BOG) I really think Expresso Star is overpriced at 33/1 and upwards. Ok, he isnt certain to stay, but given the lack of pace in the race, it isnt going to be a stamina test, and Expresso Star's speed may be of big benefit if it turns into a sprint. He ran well last time, only going down by 1/2 length to last year's Derby 4th Doctor Fremantle. That isnt bad form, and he is overpriced in my opinion. I will also be laying Youmzain who needs a strong pace and everything to fall right for her. I can see the slow pace causing trouble in running, and normally Youmzain finds trouble.

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

4.05 The Oaks

I posted this last night, and having slept on it, have decided on my two bets. You know what, I just cant for the life of me figure this race out: Sariska was very impressive last time over 1m 2f, and will improve for the step up to 1m 4f. Midday won the Derby Trial in fine style, handles Epsom and is guaranteed to stay. Perfect Truth is very imteresting. On the clock, that Chester race is the best trial of the year for the Oaks, and that would put Perfect Truth and Phillipina in with big shouts here. However, I cant quite believe that figure - is it really concievable that the bunch of maidens in that race could record such a good speed figure. To be fair, it wasnt as if a pacemaker ensured it would be a quick time as Perfect Truth was the front runner and she won - was that a better performance than we are giving her credit for ? The race entries before that, however, suggest she isnt that great. Same can to for Phillipina - One tremendous race rating, but poor form previously. One thing is for sure, IF that Chester race is as good as the time suggests, the race will be between Phillipina and Perfect Truth. However, I suspect it isnt and the likely improvement from Sariska over 1m 4f and the class of Midday make this Oaks near impossible for me. Another to chuck into the mix could be Tottie - Only finished half a length behind Midday as a 2 year old. She was well beaten by the same horse in the Derby Trial, but that was Tottie's seasonal debut - lets say she wasnt fit. If that was the case, she would come on a lot for that run and shouldnt be such a big price. Amanda Perrett wouldnt enter her here if she didnt think she could win. Actually, Tottie will definitely be my bet. Currently 180 to win on

Betfair. Tottie 2.5 pts ew @ 100/1 Bet 365 (BOG) Perfect Truth 5 pts ew @ 10/1 Ladbrokes

[Verisimilitude]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June GENERAL ELLIOT 1.40 Epsom. 0.5 points each way. I like this horse, as although a bit head strong, he's shown he has a touch of class and is open to further progression in first time blinkers. The trip and ground hold no fears and I think with getting the race run to suit he can go very close.

[Rainbow]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June royal power 210 epsom. 0.5 pts ew. comes back from a little break and i think it will be the pause that refreshes. has every chance on best form and weight combined, especially off a mark of 95 today. trip and ground shouldnt be any concerns and if bouncing back to form would have every chance at big odds.

[fintron]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

With you on this one fin' date=' here's to starting the two day meeting with a bang. :hope[/quote'] If Winston rides him as well as he did at Chester I'm hopeful of a place :hope

[KautoStar666]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Good shout lads on Deposer

[fintron]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Cheers, and well done Spooner too. 5.3 for the place was better than chancing the winner I thought :clap

[fintron]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June by the way Epsom is live on the beeb site if anyone else wants to surf the sack like me!!! http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/other_sports/horse_racing/default.stm

[stewartd14]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June :clap:clap those on Deposer I backed Mac Love @ over 50/1 on Betfair last time and after trading at 1.3 in running, he weakened out of it and ended up 4th, scuppering place money also. After that, I was convinced he didnt really stay the mile .... wrong :wall

[WoodyTHFC]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June 2.45 Frozen Fire 10/1 sj bog 10 pts e.w Horrible race from a tactical viewpoint. No real pace for sure and that disadvantages loads of these including this one arguably. Youmzain is the class horse here but he often runs his best races off a strong pace which he then quickens off and the lack of genuine pace here could be his downfall. A class horse though and done me many favours in the past and wouldn’t be a surprise if his class got him through it. Hills is a shocking jockey choice for that type of horse though imo. Look Here is one I think would be compromised by a tactical race as has happened to her in the past and that is a bit of a concern for me. Duncan is a real improver but still might not be good enough whilst Eastern Anthem has to prove it in this country and reportedly might not be completely sharp for this. Ask for me has come up short at this level in the past and also is seemingly one to catch when fresh, he seems to always win fresh or run top races fresh but then his form drops a few pounds. So coming down to lto’s chester farce of a race and going for FF ahead of the improved buccellati. Buccellati has done me favours in the past but again he I still think would be better with a genuine pace as could well be FF. However something just tells me that the unpredictable FF could turn up one day. I think this is ballydole’s best older horse and whilst he has his own ideas and a seemingly unhealthy head carriage he also has loads of natural ability when he puts his right form forward. He showed that in the ire derby and also in last years dante which is important in the context of this race as I believe it suggests a tactical affair, whilst not ideal, may not totally destroy him as he does have some speed. He didn’t handle Epsom last year but its a strange one that because horses sometimes don’t handle Epsom sometimes and then the next they do and it may have just been the unreliable nature of FF rather than the course specifically. He can put in stinkers but on a good day he is very talented and he could go well here. General thoughts on the other contenders for the oaks not mentioned below: Sariska was impressive lto in the style of her win especially as I thought that ground would be too quick that day (mind you I’m not totally certain on that York ground that day as there were a couple of softer ground horses who seemed to perform better than I thought that day.) However for me the best two horses in that race didn’t perform at their best that day and if a line is taken through star ruby and her maiden victim along with perfect truth’s race, there is not that much between the form lines. The trip also is a major question mark, sure she is related to the stayer gull wing but also she is by pivotal who hardly is a major stamina influence ad the way she has travelled at times suggest to me she has some pace. In short, a bit too short for me. Midday was impressive lto at ling and has track form which is fair form although only fair for me given how Debussy isn’t a wonder horse and popmurphy disappointment since. Stamina assured now which wasn’t previously but still not for me. Perfect Truth should make it and could be sharpened up for her run lto but I think her form below could be overturned. Bolger’s horse unproven on the ground and trip wise and still has it to find for me as do the rest for me although one will probably step up on their form and it could be High Heeled if the ground was with a bit more cut as her form at newb reads well and I don’t think she ran her race lto. However going for two: 4.05 Rainbow View 3/1 bet3 bog 20 pts For me still the best horse in the race as OR also suggest. At hq she was disappointing if her amazing 2 yr form was taken into account but at the same time if that was her only run and she didn’t have her previous form, many would be pinpointing a top class trial where she stayed on really strongly. She clearly hated that really quick ground and in many ways it was her class that go her through to 5th. Today is a completely different test at 12f and one that she is unproven at although she is by a fairly strong stamina influence. I think 10f would definitely be in her radar although the extra couple of furlongs is the question mark. However the smallish nature of the field could help in that regard, it will still be a test but not as major a test as in other years it could have been, last year for example where the pace was far too quick and favoured the real stayers. Ground today she just about be ok, still quickish but not as quick as at hq which on 2 yr form would still be ok or at least should be. She could just have this class edge and if she gets the trip I think she wins this and her class I believe can help her get the trip or at least appear to. Phillipina 11/2 bet3 bog 10 pts e.w As an alternative Im going for a different kind of horse who looks far more proven stamina orientated. The difference here is that she may not have the natural class. Indeed she remains a maiden and in that sense her price is too short, far too short in fact. However I really believe it is significant that Stoute has gone this route with this one. He had a lot of possibilities for this race, leocorno, enticement, july jasmine yet has gone for this who hasn’t even won a race and that for me has some significance. This one may not have won a race but couldn’t have come any closer lto and her improvement is scarily upwards. At ches she did not totally handle the track and yet still was a fast finisher to only just be denied having been outpaced, there is nothing between her and her conqueror but given this ones really unexposed and improving profile that for could be overturnd. The fourth that day has a line to star ruby who represents the sariska form and suggests that whilst she has a bit too find on that it is not that much. I believe she can handle this track or at least hope she can as ches can have that sharpening effect upon horses for eposm and overall I can see her staying on strongly to the frame. 5.25 All About You 7/2 bluesq 10 pts Time Medicean I advised e.w lto and she could go well up to 7f but this one is my preference for a yard who are in really good form. This one ‘won’ the race for second behind subsequent group performer huntdown on debut in a really encouraging run and it was no surprise to see this one win afterwards. However the form of its win looks good now given it beat desert creek and also a horse who went onto beat gosden’s useful racketeer. On his seasonal debut he was having his first run for haggas and ran an encouraging enough run behind the classy bouvardia who boosted the form afterwards. He steps up in trip today which I think is within range and he looks fairly well treated of a current mark of 84.

[fintron]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June 2.45 Epsom Looking at the Coronation Cup purely from a pace angle its hard to make a case for many of these. I remember the race when Buccellati clashed with Frozen Fire at Chester. Both Will Buick and Johnny Murtagh were told to stick their mounts at the back of the field, the race was run at a crawl with none of the three jocks willing to ignore their trainers instructions (to hold up)at first, and only Buick had the brains to take up the running. When the race descended into a sprint he had first run on the O'Brien runner and won well. I envisage a slow pace again here, although not to the same extent. Expresso Star has made all to win in the past but seems much happier coming from off the pace nowadays. It is possibly Jimmy Fortune may be forced to race a bit more prominently today, but the one that looks certain to get the race run to suit is Eastern Anthem. I'm not a Godolphin fan at all and think the criticism of them of late has been justified, but I think their runner can go close here and he has made all to win previously. Despite his limitations, Frankie does have the best win % of those jockeys in this race, so knows how to ride the course. 10/1 Bet 365.

[Aykay1]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June 325 Epsom – Lake Poet – @ 3/1 >bet365Hard to see this one out of the frame and he looks the most likely winner. Has a great record at Epsom – 3112 and is only 1lb higher than when winning this in 2007. He ran a great race last time out, finishing 2^nd behind a very well treated rival, Duncan, who has since won in Listed company and is now rated 14lb’s higher than when beating Lake Poet. He can do the form a further favour by winning the 2.45.

[Woodie]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June What a great race! best I've seen for some time.

[Jk]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June Bucellati horribly caught against the rails, would have probably gone onto win it.

[bowles10]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

What a great race! best I've seen for some time.

typically i back Ask all last season & now it wins 2 this year! nse nse 1/2L between 1st 4. Unbelievable race :clap Duncan actually looked in front about 250 yards out but couldnt end up living with the other 3. look Here ran a blinder. Youmzain is destined never to win a Grp 1!

[bowles10]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June

Bucellati horribly caught against the rails' date=' would have probably gone onto win it.[/quote'] would it????? buick could have waited, didnt need to do that, jockey error i am afraid

[srt100]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June fantastic race, shame frozen fire couldn't keep up the early pace.

[fintron]

Re: Epsom fri 5th June great race, very exciting to watch, well done Stoutey!